As we near the end of the season, motivation is something to keep in mind. Some teams are still pushing for the playoffs, while others would be better served to lose and improve their draft position.
On to the picks:
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at New England Patriots
Thursday, December 1 at 8:15 p.m. ET
It’s been interesting to see this line move in favor of the Patriots throughout the week. The Bills don’t look the same as the early-season juggernaut but I’m still a big believer. I think their offense can move the football against the stingy New England defense, while the Patriots could have trouble scoring points in this one.
The absence of Von Miller hurts the Buffalo defense, but that defensive line is still talented, and the secondary will make life tough on Mac Jones. I think the Bills make a statement in this one.
Score prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 17
Pick: Bills -3.5
New York Jets (+3) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 4th at 1 p.m. ET
The Jets have a top-5 defense, and even though Mike White likely isn’t the second coming as last week would attest, he is a definitive upgrade on Zach Wilson. The Vikings have a great record but are a bit of a paper tiger.
I think Minnesota should be on upset alert at home in this matchup.
Score prediction: Jets 23, Vikings 20
Pick: Jets +3
Tennessee Titans (+4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 4th at 1 p.m. ET
The Eagles’ biggest Achilles heel is run defense, and the Titans have Derrick Henry, so there is a sensible reason to expect Tennessee to keep this game close.
However, Philly is superior in basically every other phase and I think the offense will be able to score against a pretty good Titans defense. I think the Eagles flex again in this one.
Score prediction: Eagles 27, Titans 21
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Denver Broncos (+8.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 4th at 1 p.m. ET
The Broncos are down to No. 26 in team DVOA, as the offense is awful and the defense has shown some cracks in the foundation lately. I honestly don’t want to know what my record is picking Broncos games. It might be 0-11.
I’m finally bailing on Denver two months late, which means it will probably spring a huge upset here.
Score prediction: Ravens 24, Broncos 13
Pick: Ravens -8.5
Washington Commanders (-2) at New York Giants
Sunday, December 4th at 1 p.m. ET
This is a pretty surprising line to me. The Giants are a bit overrated but I don’t know that Washington is much better. This feels like a pick ‘em matchup and I’ll gladly take the points with the home team.
The Giants desperately need the win to avoid a late-season collapse that pushes them out of the playoffs.
Score prediction: Giants 19, Commanders 17
Pick: Giants +2
Cleveland Browns (-7) at Houston Texans
Sunday, December 4th at 1 p.m. ET
The Browns had one of the best offenses in the NFL without Deshaun Watson, and now he will be back starting for them. While there may be some rust, Watson is a talented player going against a very poor defense.
There will be a lot of emotions and attention on this game. Watson deserves continued scrutiny for his galling off-field behavior but I do think he will have a good outing.
Score prediction: Browns 30, Texans 16
Pick: Browns -7
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, December 4th at 1 p.m. ET
Both of these teams have shown marked improvement, and the winner will remain on the periphery of the playoff picture. It’s an interesting matchup, as both offenses are playing well right now.
I’m going to roll with the home team in a matchup I could see going either way.
Score prediction: Lions 27, Jaguars 23
Pick: Lions -1
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 4th at 1 p.m. ET
Aaron Rodgers is banged up and Green Bay’s season is circling the drain. Even though the Bears are an inferior team, they are at home and would love to knock off the hated Packers.
Justin Fields has shown some serious progress in recent weeks and I think he’s going to make some big plays with his legs against Green Bay. I smell an upset at +160 on the moneyline.
Score prediction: Bears 23, Packers 20
Pick: Bears +4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, December 4th at 1 p.m. ET
The Steelers have been a pretty tough outfit after T.J. Watt got back from injury, and I like them to keep that rolling in this one. The Atlanta offense has struggled lately and will have its hands full.
Kenny Pickett is starting to play better for Pittsburgh and should be able to score against a questionable Falcons defense. I like Pittsburgh to score the mini-upset.
Score prediction: Steelers 23, Falcons 20
Pick: Steelers +1
Miami Dolphins (+4) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, December 4th at 4:05 p.m. ET
What a fun game this should be. The Dolphins have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL but will face off with a San Francisco defense playing at an elite level.
I think Tua Tagovailoa will be able to get the ball out quickly enough to mitigate the San Francisco pass-rush. I think this game will be highly entertaining and come down to the wire. The Dolphins are an easy choice on the spread in a game that may very well be decided by a late field goal.
Score prediction: Dolphins 24, 49ers 23
Pick: Dolphins +4
Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, December 4th at 4:05 p.m. ET
The defending champion Rams are a shell of their former selves due to injury. Their band of backups stand very little chance against a solid Seattle team and I’m surprised the spread is not higher.
Happy to jump on it here to save a push if the margin does end up a touchdown, but I think Seattle wins by double digits.
Score prediction: Seahawks 24, Rams 14
Pick: Seahawks -7
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, December 4th at 4:25 p.m. ET
Patrick Mahomes has been on an insane tear of late and has emerged as the clear-cut favorite to win MVP. But Joe Burrow is playing some really good ball of his own and Ja’Marr Chase is likely to return for this game.
The oddsmakers are giving the Bengals respect by instituting them as only slight underdogs and I’m going a step further. I believe Cincinnati is the more well-rounded team and will win this game.
Score prediction: Bengals 30, Chiefs 27
Pick: Bengals +1.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, December 4th at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Chargers picked up a much-needed victory on Sunday against the Cardinals to remain in the playoff hunt. Los Angeles is still missing a ton of guys but Justin Herbert is the difference-maker for me.
Despite the down statistics he is a great quarterback and should play well against a really bad Las Vegas defense.
Score prediction: Chargers 28, Raiders 24
Pick: Chargers -1.5
Indianapolis Colts (+11) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, December 4th at 8:25 p.m. ET
This Cowboys defense is going to eat against the Colts. This is a contest between a Super Bowl contender and a subpar opponent and it’s going to get ugly.
Dallas is right there with the Eagles and 49ers as the best teams in the NFC and will further solidify that with a blowout win.
Score prediction: Cowboys 31, Colts 16
Pick: Cowboys -11
New Orleans Saints (+4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, December 5th at 8:15 p.m. ET
At this point I’m certainly rooting for more chaos in the NFC South, and an upset by the Saints would bring more of that. However, I have no trust in the offense getting things done against a stingy Tampa Bay defense.
The Buccaneers have issues, but I think they will slowly pull away in this one to get back to .500 on the season.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 20, Saints 14
Pick: Buccaneers -4
Last week’s record: 9-7
Overall: 95-79-6
