We’ve got some Turkey Day action followed by a large slate of Sunday football games. It’s the holiday season and I’m in the mood for giving out correct picks, so let’s go.
Buffalo Bills (-9.5) at Detroit Lions
Thursday, November 24 at 12:30 p.m. ET
The Lions have played some pretty good football of late and are getting healthier on offense. Buffalo is the superior team but I think this game could be a shootout, and one in which Detroit is able to remain relatively close.
The Lions will be hard-pressed to win this game but I like them to cover.
Score prediction: Bills 31, Lions 24
Pick: Lions +9.5
New York Giants (+10) at Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, November 24 at 4:30 p.m. ET
The Cowboys are really rolling and look like one of the clear-cut top-three contenders in the NFC alongside the Eagles and 49ers. The Giants’ record is a mirage, and this team has to avoid a second-half collapse in order to make the playoffs.
New York gave itself a nice cushion with such a hot start, but this game is going to be a reminder that the talent is not nearly on the level of Dallas or Philly.
Score prediction: Cowboys 28, Giants 17
Pick: Cowboys -10
New England Patriots (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Thursday, November 24 at 8:20 p.m. ET
This is truly an amazing stat: The Vikings have an 8-2 record but a negative-2 point-differential on the season. They are not nearly as good as the record suggests, and in fact are just No. 24 in Team DVOA, per Football Outsiders.
I’m not sure what to make of the Patriots, but there is no denying how well their defense is playing right now. I think this game could go either way, which is why I like New England against the spread and on the moneyline.
Score prediction: Patriots 20, Vikings 17
Pick: Patriots +3
Houston Texans (+13.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 27 at 1 p.m. ET
The Dolphins have the second-most efficient offense in the NFL, and that is with Tua Tagovailoa being sidelined for a stretch of games. The Texans are bad defensively and a mess offensively.
These spreads are scary but I think this game gets sideways. I like Miami in a rout.
Score prediction: Dolphins 34, Texans 17
Pick: Dolphins -13
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 27 at 1 p.m. ET
This is an interesting spread, as the oddsmakers are giving Jacksonville some credit despite a 3-7 record on the year. The Ravens are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL and the Jaguars’ offense will need to score some points to keep this game close.
I think Baltimore has too much talent on defense and will keep the Jaguars from keeping pace.
Score prediction: Ravens 27, Jaguars 21
Pick: Ravens -4
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 27 at 1 p.m. ET
Two disparate styles clash in this matchup., as the Bengals will be pushing the ball through the air while Tennessee moves it on the ground. I think Cincinnati has the better offense, but it must limit sacks and turnovers in order to come away with the road win.
The presence of Ja’Marr Chase is big, as he is expected to play. I like the Bengals in a close one.
Score prediction: Bengals 24, Titans 20
Pick: Bengals -1.5
Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, November 27 at 1 p.m. ET
This line seems high for a couple of middling NFC teams. The Commanders have played well lately but they are far from a dominant group. This game could very well be settled by a late field goal, which makes the Falcons an easy call for me.
Score prediction: Falcons 19, Commanders 17
Pick: Falcons +4
Chicago Bears (+5) at New York Jets
Sunday, November 27 at 1 p.m. ET
The New York Jets have benched Zach Wilson, and truthfully, it probably helps their chances on Sunday. The Bears have looked solid lately but it hasn’t translated into victories, and signal-caller Justin Fields is questionable due to injury.
While there is a lot of focus on the quarterbacks, I think it will be the Jets defense that is the difference in this game. Chicago could have trouble moving the ball and its defense isn’t good enough to bail out the offense.
Score prediction: Jets 23, Bears 14
Pick: Jets -5
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 27 at 1 p.m. ET
I can’t tell you how dumb I feel for always picking the Broncos and always being wrong. Well, I’m about to get dumber.
Sam Darnold is the quarterback of the week for Carolina, and I can’t imagine that going well. Russell Wilson and the offense continues to struggle but the Denver defense should be able to lead the way in a win, and a cover (please).
Score prediction: Broncos 20, Panthers 13
Pick: Broncos -2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 27 at 1:02 p.m. ET
The Buccaneers are generally dominant against the run, but they’ve been merely good against it this year. If Cleveland can get things going on the ground, I think this one will be nip and tuck throughout.
Tampa Bay will probably win its division in the end but the whole year has been a struggle and I wouldn’t be surprised by a loss here.
Score prediction: Browns 23, Buccaneers 21
Pick: Browns +3.5
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, November 27 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The Seahawks are no longer in first place in the NFC West and need to win games like this to keep pace with the 49ers. Seattle has the home field and has been the better team this year.
It’s possible the Las Vegas passing attack dominates to help the Raiders pull the upset, but the Seahawks are the more well-rounded team. I like Seattle to grab this win and cover.
Score prediction: Seahawks 27, Raiders 20
Pick: Seahawks -3.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 27 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Both of these teams have been rocked by injuries and have underachieved this year. The Chargers showed their potential against the Chiefs last week but fell in the waning seconds.
Much of this could come down to availability. I’m hearing that quarterback Kyler Murray has a great chance to make it back from his hamstring injury this week. If Arizona can also get Hollywood Brown on the field, then the offense suddenly has a legitimate chance to do some things.
Justin Herbert is a special quarterback for the Chargers and I think Los Angeles pulls this game out, but the spread is too large for my liking.
Score prediction: Chargers 27, Cardinals 24
Pick: Cardinals +4.5
New Orleans Saints (+9) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, November 27 at 8:20 p.m. ET
The 49ers are really rolling now. They have gotten key players back from injury and flexed their immense talent on Monday night. I don’t think the Saints are good enough offensively to keep up, and once San Francisco gets ahead, the pass-rush can go to work.
The 49ers are emerging as one of the top Super Bowl contenders and that will continue this week.
Score prediction: 49ers 28, Saints 17
Pick: 49ers -9
Los Angeles Rams (+14.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 27 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The defending Super Bowl champions are 14.5-point underdogs. Oof. It makes sense, though, with Bryce Perkins expected to start against a Chiefs team that has been dominant this season.
The Rams have struggled defending the pass this season, and that has to be the area that excels or else this will indeed be a blowout.
It’s hard to cover a spread of more than two touchdowns but I cannot in good faith take Los Angeles to stay close.
Score prediction: Chiefs 28, Rams 10
Pick: Chiefs -14.5
Green Bay Packers (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 27 at 8:20 p.m. ET
The Eagles have stumbled a bit the past couple of weeks but it’s nothing to be concerned about. The Packers, meanwhile, were throttled by the Titans last week and are on their last legs when it comes to a potential playoff push.
The Eagles have brought in reinforcements to stop the run but it might still be an area of weakness. I think Green Bay can do enough on the ground to hang around in this game and secure a cover.
Score prediction: Eagles 27, Packers 23
Pick: Packers +6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 27 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Both teams have good defenses and struggling offenses, which makes this one more of a pick ‘em to me. The Colts’ offensive line has had issues for much of the year and the Steelers’ defensive front may be able to feast in this one.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Steelers win this game outright, and I definitely like them to cover.
Score prediction: Steelers 17, Colts 16
Pick: Steelers +2.5
Last week’s record: 7-6-1
Overall: 86-72-6
