I’m riding with a lot of underdogs this week, both against the spread and on the moneyline.
Here are my picks:
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers
Thursday, November 17 at 8:15 p.m. ET
I wrote this week about the Packers being my No. 1 candidate to grab a playoff spot among the teams currently on the outside. They need to win this game in order to make that potential more realistic, and I think they will.
However, the spread has gotten too large for me. These seem like two pretty evenly-matched teams that could both find success on the ground. I like the Titans to cover in a close one.
Score prediction: Packers 20, Titans 17
Pick: Titans +3.5
Chicago Bears (+3) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 20 at 1 p.m. ET
The Falcons are No. 11 in offensive DVOA this season. Maybe I’ll be burned by both my recency bias and eyeball test, but they looked far from that on Thursday Night Football against the Panthers.
I think Chicago will stack the line of scrimmage and rely on some pretty good defensive backs to slow down the pass. Justin Fields is playing much better than Marcus Mariota right now, which is why I like the Bears to win this one outright at +135 on the moneyline.
Score prediction: Bears 24, Falcons 21
Pick: Bears +3
Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 20 at 1 p.m. ET
I still have the utmost faith in Buffalo being a Super Bowl contender, despite the recent dip in play. The oddsmakers see it the same way as they are heavy favorites in this game.
Cleveland’s offense has been solid all year, and if this game has as much snow as expected, it will be able to rely on an efficient run game to keep this matchup close. I really like Cleveland at this number because a loss by a touchdown would still result in a cover.
Score prediction: Bills 24, Browns 20
Pick: Browns +7.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 20 at 1 p.m. ET
This is legitimately a matchup between one of the best and one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Eagles have finally been hit with some injuries but the talent discrepancy is going to be painfully obvious in this matchup. The run defense has been the worst part for Philly and that was bolstered this week.
Sportsbooks like BetMGM and FanDuel currently have the spread at -6.5, and even though you will pay a little more for it, that’s even more enticing. I think the Eagles roll.
Score prediction: Eagles 27, Colts 17
Pick: Eagles -7
Carolina Panthers (+13) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, November 20 at 1 p.m. ET
The Ravens should cruise in this game, but any spread that gets this big makes me do a double-take. Carolina coach Steve Wilks plays a conservative brand of ball, which may allow the Panthers to stay relatively close provided the offense does a little bit of the lifting.
I think there is enough team speed on the Panthers defense to avoid this one getting too far out of hand. Carolina is a bad team but this spread doesn’t give it enough credit.
Score prediction: Ravens 27, Panthers 16
Pick: Panthers +13
New York Jets (+3.5) at New England Patriots
Sunday, November 20 at 1 p.m. ET
The oddsmakers are just daring us to take the Jets by putting this spread at 3.5 points. And, well, I’m in. Both of these defenses are playing really well and it could be a drag-out affair.
The Patriots have won four of their past five and defeated the Jets on the road a couple weeks back. I wouldn’t be surprised if New York got revenge in this game because I believe it has the slightly superior roster.
The Jets’ moneyline of +150 holds intrigue and I’m definitely on their side of the spread.
Score prediction: Jets 23, Patriots 21
Pick: Jets +3.5
Detroit Lions (+3) at New York Giants
Sunday, November 20 at 1 p.m. ET
I love how the oddsmakers don’t pay any attention to records. The Giants are 7-2 and the Lions 3-6 but this game is expected to be competitive. The Giants have some impressive wins this season but most have been in close games.
The Lions are playing some pretty good ball of late and I’m going with another underdog to cover the spread. Detroit is another frisky moneyline play at +135 odds at DraftKings.
Score prediction: Giants 24, Lions 23
Pick: Lions +3
Washington Commanders (-3) at Houston Texans
Sunday, November 20 at 1 p.m. ET
The Commanders are another team that I think could sneak into the playoffs. Picking up a win against the downtrodden Texans is crucial. Washington is up to No. 21 in DVOA after upsetting the Eagles last time out.
The defense has done the heavy lifting, while Taylor Heinicke has done a nice job at quarterback. I’ve said a lot of nice things about Washington, but I don’t think this group is demonstrably better than Houston. The Texans should be able to keep this one neck-and-neck at home.
Score prediction: Commanders 21, Texans 19
Pick: Texans +3
Los Angeles Rams (+3) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, November 20 at 1 p.m. ET
Matthew Stafford is back from concussion protocol and expected to start. Both of these teams are in dire straits and the one that loses can effectively kiss goodbye any shot at the playoffs.
The Rams look nothing like defending champions and have serious issues on the offensive line. That being said, the Saints are in just as much of a rut and have the inferior quarterback.
I like Los Angeles to pull out the road upset.
Score prediction: Rams 24, Saints 20
Pick: Rams +3
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 13 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL face off in Denver. The Broncos have a terrible offense and a great defense, while the Raiders are decent on offense and terrible on defense.
It’s certainly an interesting matchup, and the Raiders scored 32 points the first time these teams faced off to grab the win in Vegas. I should probably stop believing in a Denver turnaround but once again I like the offense to do a little something to secure the win and the cover. But I’m really only picking this game because I have to.
Score prediction: Broncos 24, Raiders 20
Pick: Broncos -3
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, November 20 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Minnesota Vikings are tied for the best record in the NFL at 8-1… and are home underdogs on Sunday. Honestly, I’m with it. The Vikings have won a lot of close games and look like a good but not great team.
Dallas is coming off a loss to the Packers but has really talented pieces on both sides of the ball. I think the Cowboys make a statement in this game.
Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Vikings 21
Pick: Cowboys -1.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 20 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Bengals are quietly fourth in the NFL in EPA per play, according to Ben Baldwin. The defense has been surprisingly strong all year and the offense has really come on lately.
Joe Burrow had a really rough day in the opener against the Steelers, a game Pittsburgh won. T.J. Watt is back in the fold so the defense is looking to once again lead the way.
The Bengals won’t have Ja’Marr Chase again but I think they are playing well enough to win this one pretty easily.
Score prediction: Bengals 24, Steelers 17
Pick: Bengals -4
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 13 at 8:20 p.m. ET
The Chargers need this game to have any shot at catching the Chiefs in the AFC West. Los Angeles has a negative point-differential on the year and Justin Herbert’s stats are not eye-popping.
However, injuries have been a huge factor, and now it looks like Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both have a chance of playing in this one.
The Chiefs have looked good all year and Patrick Mahomes is the front-runner for MVP once again. But Los Angeles played Kansas City tough in the first matchup and +215 odds for an upset are speaking to me.
Score prediction: Chargers 34, Chiefs 31
Pick: Chargers +6
San Francisco 49ers (-10) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Monday, November 21 at 8:15 p.m. ET in Mexico City
We have some clarity on the Cardinals, as Colt McCoy will be the starting quarterback again. He was fantastic in place of Kyler Murray last week, but the element of surprise is gone after a really solid game-plan from Kliff Kingsbury against the Rams.
I have a feeling this game is going to get sideways. The Cardinals are not a good running team and the 49ers are top-5 against it anyway, so as long as San Francisco can contain DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore, Arizona will have trouble moving the ball.
The Cardinals looked great on-script in Los Angeles, but if the 49ers can get ahead by a couple scores, the offensive plan will go out the window, and the San Francisco defense could feast on McCoy. I like the 49ers in a blowout.
Score prediction: 49ers 27, Cardinals 14
Pick: 49ers -10
Last week’s record: 5-9
Overall: 79-66-5
