Another week, another batch of football games to pick. Here we go.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Thursday, November 10 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Falcons are an average team, while the Panthers are ranked last in DVOA. Carolina has the home field advantage, but it’s a short trip from Atlanta, and I doubt the crowd will be raucous. Hurricane Nicole could affect things, as wind and rain may be in the forecast.
This spread dropped from three points, and I love that. I could totally see the Falcons winning this game by three or four points.
Score prediction: Falcons 20, Panthers 17
Pick: Falcons -2.5
Seattle Seahawks (+3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 13 at 9:30 a.m. ET
This is a really interesting spread. The Seahawks have looked like the better team all year while the Buccaneers have the longer-term pedigree. I am buying Seattle as the quality play has been sustained all year.
I feel like this is more of a pick ‘em contest because of how surprisingly good they have been this season, and because it’s on a neutral field in Germany. If the Seahawks win this game, it’s going to say a lot about the direction of both franchises.
Score prediction: Seahawks 20, Buccaneers 17
Pick: Seahawks +3
Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 13 at 1 p.m. ET
The oddsmakers love themselves the Chiefs, but this is much too rich for my blood. The Jaguars may only be 3-6 but they have a plus-21 point-differential, which is a sign they have been unlucky.
Kansas City will win, but much like last week against the Titans, I think Jacksonville will hang in there and cover pretty easily.
Score prediction: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24
Pick: Jaguars +9.5
Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 13 at 1 p.m. ET
There is a lot to like about what the Dolphins are doing this season, and they have been dominant when Tua Tagovailoa has been healthy.
But the Browns are an underrated team that is capable of moving the ball efficiently on offense. I could see a lot of points being scored in this game, with the Browns sticking close enough to cover.
Score prediction: Dolphins 27, Browns 24
Pick: Browns +3.5
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 13 at 1 p.m. ET
This line has dropped as the oddsmakers don’t believe that Josh Allen will play because of an elbow injury. I am hoping it gets down to a field goal because I would be all over the Bills at that point.
Buffalo may have to go with Case Keenum, but he’s a solid veteran with a bunch of weapons around him with which to work. The Vikings are a good team, but not great, and Buffalo is going to show just how talented the overall roster is in this matchup.
Score prediction: Bills 26, Vikings 20
Pick: Bills -3.5
Houston Texans (+4) at New York Giants
Sunday, November 13 at 1 p.m. ET
This spread started at around a touchdown and was quickly bet down. I would have been all over Houston at the +6.5 line but now it’s a much tougher call.
The Giants probably aren’t getting enough respect here. They certainly aren’t as good as the 6-2 record would suggest, but coach Brian Daboll does a nice job maximizing his group and New York is at home against a one-win foe.
I’ll take the Giants to cover now that the spread is more realistic.
Score prediction: Giants 23, Texans 17
Pick: Giants -4
Denver Broncos (+2) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 13 at 1 p.m. ET
I might be dumb, but I’m still not ready to give up on the Broncos. They need this win to have a realistic shot at the playoffs, and I think they can pull the upset in Tennessee.
The defense is ranked No. 2 in DVOA, and if Russell Wilson can give us just a little bit of his past success, the Broncos could be a nice play. I’m assuming Ryan Tannehill plays this week for the Titans but I still like the Broncos.
Score prediction: Broncos 24, Titans 20
Pick: Broncos +2
Detroit Lions (+3) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, November 13 at 1 p.m. ET
The oddsmakers and the betting public are really buying into the development of Justin Fields, as the Bears are a field goal favorite against the Lions. The young quarterback has been very good lately, but I’m not totally sold quite yet.
I think the Lions are the better team and could easily win this game outright. Easy pick for me here.
Score prediction: Lions 21, Bears 20
Pick: Lions +3
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 13 at 1 p.m. ET
These two teams have been very similar this season. Both needed to lean on their defenses to have a good season and each has struggled. The Saints can stick in the playoff race with a win in this game but I’m not too confident about that happening.
The Steelers are at home and T.J. Watt is expected back, which tilts the scales in their favor.
Score prediction: Steelers 20, Saints 17
Pick: Steelers +1.5
Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 13 at 4:05 p.m. ET
It’s entirely possible that naming Jeff Saturday the interim head coach will blow up in spectacular fashion, beginning with this game against the Raiders. But he’s so new that I think Saturday will simply rely on the assistant coaches still in place for this game, and it will be standard operating procedure.
The gulf in talent level is not this big, so I’ll take the Colts and hope that the game doesn’t look as dysfunctional as the team’s recent press conferences.
Score prediction: Raiders 21, Colts 17
Pick: Colts +5.5
Dallas Cowboys (-5) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 13 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Packers have looked bad for a while now and I think this game will be the nail in their coffin. Dallas has one of the best defenses in the NFL and with Dak Prescott back, the offense can be potent.
Even at home, I don’t see the Packers keeping up. It’s about to get ugly in Lambeau land.
Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Packers 17
Pick: Cowboys -5
Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, November 13 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The quarterback situations for both teams makes this a really tough game to forecast. Matthew Stafford was placed in concussion protocol on Tuesday, while Kyler Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury. If one of the teams has its signal-caller and the other doesn’t, that’s a huge swing.
If Murray plays, he could be less mobile than usual, and the Cardinals are also going to be without all three of their starting interior linemen. That’s not a recipe for success against Aaron Donald, who could have a mammoth game.
I might change this pick as we get more clarity on the quarterbacks, but for now, I like the Rams. A win would get me to 9-1 against the spread on Cardinals games this season.
Score prediction: Rams 24, Cardinals 19
Pick: Rams -1.5
Los Angeles Chargers (+7) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, November 13 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Not much love from the oddsmakers for the Chargers. It’s understandable, as Los Angeles continues to deal with myriad injuries and the offense has not been as explosive as expected.
The 49ers are the better team in nearly every facet, but I think Justin Herbert will help level the playing field with a standout game. I’ll take San Francisco, but like the Chargers to keep it close.
Score prediction: 49ers 27, Chargers 23
Pick: Chargers +7
Washington Commanders (+10.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, November 14 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Eagles have been dominant this season, but it’s far from a given to knock off opponents by double digits in the NFL. The Commanders have a decent defense and it will need to play well to keep this game close.
In the end, Philly has way too much firepower, and it’s going to be hard for Washington to move the ball. This could be another rout.
Score prediction: Eagles 31, Commanders 17
Pick: Eagles -10.5
Last week’s record: 7-4-2
Overall: 74-57-5
