Here we go. The NFL regular season kicks off tonight when the Los Angeles Rams host the Buffalo Bills.
I will be picking every game against the spread this season, so check back for each week’s predictions. (Note: This article publishes on Thursday, but picks may be updated before Sunday’s games based on significant injuries or other developments.)
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, September 8 at 8:20 p.m. ET
The Buffalo Bills are getting a ton of hype heading into the season, so much so that they are road favorites against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Buffalo cornerback situation worries me, but I believe the pass-rush can mitigate that issue, especially against a Los Angeles line that no longer has Andrew Whitworth as the anchor.
Score prediction: Bills 27, Rams 24
Pick: Bills -2.5
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
Sunday, September 11 at 1 p.m. ET
The Ravens have a few guys coming off major injuries, so this group might not be at peak performance quite yet, but it still has plenty of talent to easily dispatch the Jets.
Score prediction: Ravens 27, Jets 17
Pick: Ravens -7
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 11 at 1 p.m. ET
Two first-round quarterbacks from 2021 enter Year 2 with plenty to prove. Trey Lance will be under the microscope in his debut, and it could be a bumpy ride. Justin Fields, though, could have just as much trouble against a tough San Francisco defense. In the end, Chicago keeps this one close enough to cover.
Score prediction: 49ers 20, Bears 16
Pick: Bears +7
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, September 11 at 1 p.m. ET
There is a ton of buzz in Cincinnati, and deservedly so after last year’s magical run to the Super Bowl. The Bengals will look to start hot against Pittsburgh, and while T.J. Watt and Co. may slow down Joe Burrow in the beginning, the Steelers’ defense can’t hold down the explosive Cincy aerial attack forever.
Score prediction: Bengals 24, Steelers 17
Pick: Bengals -6.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Sunday, September 11 at 1 p.m. ET
This is a tricky line, because Detroit might be improved enough this year to stay within a field goal of the Eagles at home. In the end, I think Philadelphia’s run game dominates this one and the Eagles score enough to cover.
Score prediction: Eagles 27, Lions 21
Pick: Eagles (-4)
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, September 11 at 1 p.m. ET
The Browns have the superior overall roster, but now Carolina has the advantage at quarterback because of Deshaun Watson’s suspension. Even so, this line movement feels like an overreaction in a game that could go either way.
Score prediction: Panthers 24, Browns 23
Pick: Browns +1.5
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Sunday, September 11 at 1 p.m. ET
The Texans were eight-point underdogs at one point, and that would’ve been big because a loss by a touchdown would have still resulted in a cover. Even at this spread, I like Houston to keep things close at home.
Score prediction: Colts 24, Texans 20
Pick: Texans +7
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, September 11 at 1 p.m. ET
This is going to be a really interesting matchup. The Dolphins hope their offense hits the ground running, but Bill Belichick has had a long time to prepare for them. In the end, I think the pure playmaking ability of Miami’s skill players wins out.
Score prediction: Dolphins 24, Patriots 19
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 11 at 1 p.m. ET
Michael Thomas is expected to play for the Saints, which is a big deal if he can come close to past form. I do like New Orleans to capture this game on the road but the spread has moved too much for me. Atlanta can stay close.
Score prediction: Saints 23, Falcons 20
Pick: Falcons +5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders
Sunday, September 11 at 1 p.m. ET
Chase Young won’t play in this one, which takes a big bite out of the Washington pass-rush. This will be Carson Wentz’s debut for the Commanders, but I think he will get outplayed by Trevor Lawrence, who will help lead the Jaguars to an upset win. The moneyline is a good play here.
Score prediction: Jaguars 21, Commanders 20
Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Chiefs opened as three-point favorites and the money has come pouring in on them. Kansas City no longer has Tyreek Hill, but Arizona will be without star receiver DeAndre Hopkins because of suspension. Furthermore, a litany of other impact performers for Arizona are questionable. I don’t see how the Arizona defense can keep Patrick Mahomes in check.
Score prediction: Chiefs 31, Cardinals 24
Pick: Chiefs -6
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, September 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Kayvon Thibodeaux seems unlikely to play in the opener, while Leonard Williams could be limited by an arm injury. Those issues on the defensive line are a bad thing when Derrick Henry is on the other side. I think he has a big game as the Titans cruise to the win at home.
Score prediction: Titans 27, Giants 17
Pick: Titans -5.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, September 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Chargers are No. 2 in my initial power rankings and I expect them to flex some muscle in this one. The new-look defense will have its hands full against a powerful Raiders offense, but it’s doubtful that Las Vegas can slow down Justin Herbert and Co. I like the Chargers to cover in a high-scoring affair.
Score prediction: Chargers 31, Raiders 26
Pick: Chargers -3.5
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET
This should be a very interesting game right off the bat, as we see if Aaron Rodgers is just as dangerous without Davante Adams. I think Minnesota should actually be the slight favorite in this game, making this an easy call. The moneyline of +105 adds extra value for those who like the Vikings to win.
Score prediction: Vikings 24, Packers 23
Pick: Vikings +1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, September 11 at 8:20 p.m. ET
The Cowboys still have a pretty good team despite some notable losses this offseason. They also get this home, while the Buccaneers may not have Chris Godwin available as he recovers from a torn ACL. But Julio Jones is healthy for now and should give Tom Brady a nice target opposite Mike Evans. I think Tampa wins this one on the road.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 27
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Monday, September 12 at 8:20 p.m. ET
This line has inflated quite a bit since it opened but I think it’s gotten too high. The Seahawks know Russell Wilson really well and should be able to game plan well enough to keep him from dominating. They should also be able to run the ball efficiently enough to play keepaway and get some points. Denver wins, but in a close one.
Score prediction: Broncos 23, Seahawks 20
Pick: Seahawks +6.5
