Jordan Asri is an independent reporter covering all NFL reports and transactions. Here are his Week 5 picks against the spread.
(Note: This article publishes on Thursday and the Sunday picks may be updated based on breaking news or injuries.)
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) at Denver Broncos
Thursday, October 6 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Both of these teams have underwhelmed their expectations so far this season and will want to get back on track tonight. With no Jonathan Taylor tonight for Indianapolis, I’m leaning towards the Broncos in a close victory.
Score prediction: Broncos 25, Colts 21
Pick: Broncos -3.5
New York Giants (+8) vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 9 at 9:30 a.m. ET
An eight-point spread is a hefty one, but one that I think the Packers will cover against a 3-1 Giants team that hasn’t faced a real challenge yet and has struggled to put points up.
Score prediction: Packers 24, Giants 14
Pick: Packers -8
Pittsburgh Steelers (+14) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
Kenny Pickett will be making his first career start Sunday against the juggernaut that is the Buffalo Bills. His first game action last week was very hot and cold, with Pickett scoring two touchdowns, but tossing three interceptions. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs on the road and in such a hostile territory, but I don’t see it going well.
Score prediction: Bills 34, Steelers 17
Pick: Bills -14
Atlanta Falcons (+9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
I’m pretty confident in Atlanta not winning this game, but covering the 9-point spread. The Bucs have struggled to put points up so far this season and Atlanta has managed to stay competitive in most games.
Score prediction: Bucs 24, Falcons 17
Pick: Falcons +9
Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
My lock of the week, even with Tua Tagovailoa out. Teddy Bridgewater will just simply need to manage the game efficiently and distribute the football to his playmakers and let them do the rest. You never know with divisional matchups, but the Jets are just simply outmatched on both sides of the football.
Score prediction: Dolphins 27, Jets 17
Pick: Dolphins -3
Chicago Bears (+7) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
The Bears’ passing game has been historically bad thanks in part to the lack of talent at the skill positions, along with the struggling play of Justin Fields. I don’t see anything changing for them this week.
Score prediction: Vikings 21, Bears 10
Pick: Vikings -7
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
My upset of the week, I have Jacoby Brissett and company leading a close but huge win against a battered Chargers team that is missing some key players. The Browns’ ground game will dominate the day.
Score prediction: Browns 24, Chargers 20
Pick: Browns +3
Houston Texans (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
The winless Texans will stay winless against a young but ascending Jaguars team that is out to prove that it is no longer an easy win every Sunday. Trevor Lawrence has thrown eight touchdown passes to only two interceptions, which has him on pace to nearly cut his interceptions in half from his rookie season. The Texans will cover the spread, but won’t be able to win this one.
Score prediction: Jaguars 23, Texans 17
Pick: Texans +7
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
This game is a hard one to predict, but with Washington sitting at 1-3 and in desperate need of a victory, I think it will find a way to pull it out.
Score prediction: Commanders 27, Titans 24
Pick: Commanders +2.5
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
Geno Smith has been playing some efficient football this season and it helped lift the Seahawks over the Lions last week in an insane 48-45 victory in what was easily the most thrilling game of the entire season so far. I don’t see Seattle being able to put up those kind of points this week against a stingy New Orleans defense. I expect this to be a low scoring, ugly affair, but one that Seattle wins.
Score prediction: Seahawks 17, Saints 14
Pick: Seahawks +5.5
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 9 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The 49ers had a huge statement win on Monday against the defending champion Rams, while the Panthers continue to spiral out of control. Matt Rhule is on the fast track to being the first head coach fired this season, and that momentum will continue to grow after this game.
Score prediction: 49ers 28, Panthers 17
Pick: 49ers -6.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 9 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Eagles are the last undefeated team standing, and I don’t see the Cardinals being able to stop them, even though they will be at home.
Score prediction: Eagles 34, Cardinals 23
Pick: Eagles -5.5
Detroit Lions (+3) at New England Patriots
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
Both teams are 1-3 and desperate for a win. The Lions have been so good this season at staying competitive in games and never staying down. They have so much talent on offense and really are better than what their record shows, in my opinion. I think they have much more talent on offense than New England and it will show on Sunday.
Score prediction: Lions 24, Patriots 21
Pick: Lions +3
Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 9 at 4:25 p.m. ET
I’m not sure if Cooper Rush will be getting the start on Sunday or if Dak Prescott will be making his return, but it won’t affect my pick either way, as I see Los Angeles winning this game regardless of who is under center for Dallas.
Score prediction: Rams 24, Cowboys 17
Pick: Rams -5.5
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 9 at 8:30 p.m. ET
You never know with these divisional games, man, but right now I’m going to lean towards the team with the better quarterback, which is the Baltimore Ravens, in my opinion. No disrespect to Joe Burrow, but Lamar Jackson has simply been on another planet in 2022 and I’m not going to bet against that. I think this will be a close and high-scoring affair, but Baltimore will take it home.
Score prediction: Ravens 37, Bengals 30
Pick: Ravens -3
Las Vegas Raiders (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, October 10 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Raiders are struggling at 1-3, and Patrick Mahomes is picking up right where he left off, putting up MVP-caliber numbers in the month of September. I don’t see the Raiders being able to win this game or even cover that 7-point spread. Mahomes is going to have his way with Las Vegas’ defense.
Score prediction: Chiefs 38, Raiders 21
Pick: Chiefs -7
