Jordan Asri is an independent reporter covering all NFL reports and transactions. Here are his Week 4 picks against the spread.
(Note: This article publishes on Thursday and the Sunday picks may be updated based on breaking news or injuries.)
Miami Dolphins (+4) at Cincinnati Bengals
Thursday, September 29 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Miami is on a roll right now after taking down the juggernaut that is the Buffalo Bills. Tyreek Hill will be matching up against his best friend Eli Apple, and should have a huge day that helps lift Miami to a 4-0 record.
Score prediction: Dolphins 31, Bengals 21
Pick: Dolphins -4
Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 2 at 9:30 a.m. ET
Kirk Cousins and company are traveling to London to match up with the Saints. Jameis Winston has struggled mightily as of late, throwing five interceptions in the past two games alone. He will need a huge bounce back game if he wants to prevent New Orleans from a dreaded 1-3 start. I think he will get the job done.
Score prediction: Saints 21, Vikings 17
Pick: Saints +3
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
This should be a super fun matchup. There are stars all over the place in this one, as arguably the two strongest MVP candidates in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will be facing off against each other. Lamar has 12 touchdowns on the season already and looks poised to cash out big-time in the offseason. With that being said, I don’t see the Bills dropping two games in a row. Josh Allen will have a big day and lead Buffalo to a statement win over Baltimore that proves they are the team to beat in the stacked AFC.
Score prediction: Bills 34, Ravens 30
Pick: Bills -3
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
Both of these teams have exceeded their expectations so far entering the season, with Philadelphia at a strong 3-0 and Jacksonville just a few mistakes away from the same. Doug Pederson will be heading to the city of brotherly love with his eyes on revenge, but the Eagles strong defensive front and stacked offensive personnel will prove too much for the young, but ascending Jaguars.
Score prediction: Eagles 28, Jaguars 20
Pick: Eagles -6.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
The Chargers got absolutely embarrassed last week by the Jaguars and will be looking for a bounce back game against the lackluster Texans. I think this game has all the makings of a blowout win, with Justin Herbert tossing four touchdown passes.
Score prediction: Chargers 35, Texans 17
Pick: Chargers -4.5
Washington Commanders (+3) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
This is a very bad matchup for the Commanders, who gave up nine (yes, nine!) sacks last week against the Eagles. They’ll be facing a front that features Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence, a front that managed to get 23 pressures last week against the Giants. I’m expecting Cooper Rush to put up a solid showing against a struggling Commanders defense and improve his record as a starter to 4-0.
Score prediction: Cowboys 26, Commanders 20
Pick: Cowboys -3
Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
The Lions have proved so far this season that they won’t be the “easy W” that they were last season and in past seasons. With an offense featuring studs at all three skill positions in D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and TJ Hockenson, the Detroit offense is capable of putting up a lot of points in a short amount of time. If Jared Goff can manage his mistakes and make the big throws, the Lions should be able to skate away with a win here and get back to .500.
Score prediction: Lions 24, Seahawks 14
Pick: Lions -4.5
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
I think this will be a closer game than some are expecting, but as long as the Browns stick to their game plan of force feeding the ball to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt (my favorite RB duo in football) and keep throwing to Amari Cooper, there’s no reason why they won’t win this game. Jacoby Brissett just needs to keep playing solid, game-manager-style football.
Score prediction: Browns 21, Falcons 17
Pick: Browns -1.5
Chicago Bears (+3.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
The Giants may have lost to Dallas on Monday, but there are plenty of reasons for hope in the Big Apple. Saquon Barkley is still a superstar, their defense has proven so far that they can make timely stops and they seem to have the right head coach at the helm in Brian Daboll. I really think New York picks up the W here against Chicago and the struggling Justin Fields. It’ll be a low-scoring, ugly win, but a win nonetheless.
Score prediction: Giants 17, Bears 13
Pick: Giants -3.5
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
This is probably the hardest game for me to predict so far for the week, as I’m unsure which Indianapolis Colts team we are going to see. The one that can’t score points against the Houston Texans, or the one that manages to stay in the game defeat the Chiefs. Could this be the beginning of the Colts’ resurgence? It’s too soon to tell, but for now I’m going to give this game to the Titans.
Score prediction: Titans 27, Colts 24
Pick: Titans +3.5
New York Jets (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
My upset of the week, I think the Jets defense will be able to hold the Steelers offense from having a big day and the return of Zach Wilson will help lift the Jets to a big time victory at Heinz Field, actually excuse me, Acrisure Stadium.
Score prediction: Jets 21, Steelers 20
Pick: Jets +3.5
Arizona Cardinals (+2) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 2 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The Cardinals may be on the road, but they have the better quarterback, the better offense and the better defense. They will be desperate for a win and they will get one in Carolina.
Score prediction: Cardinals 27, Panthers 17
Pick: Cardinals +2
New England Patriots (+10) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 2 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Patriots will likely be without Mac Jones , looking to the veteran Brian Hoyer to lead them to a win on the road against Aaron Rodgers. No doubt about it, this will be a tall task for the Patriots, and I just don’t see any way that this game will end up being close. Ten points is a big cover, but I think the Packers get it done.
Score prediction: Packers 24, Patriots 10
Pick: Packers -10
Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 2 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Broncos offense has been struggling significantly to open the season, but I think this week will be the week that they have a breakthrough.
Score prediction: Broncos 28, Raiders 24
Pick: Broncos +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 2 at 8:30 p.m. ET
My lock of the week, the Chiefs will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing loss against Tom Brady and the Bucs, who have struggled to put up points. Even with their strong defense, I think Mahomes will put up 24-plus points, something Tampa Bay just hasn’t been able to do so far this year thanks in part to the losses of Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski.
Score prediction: Chiefs 27, Bucs 17
Pick: Chiefs -2
Los Angeles Rams (+2) at San Francisco 49ers
Monday, October 3 at 8:15 p.m. ET
This was almost my lock of the week, but you never know with divisional matchups. With that being said, I think the Rams will skate their way to an easy victory against the 49ers, who have been struggling offensively the entire season, averaging under 16 points per game.
Score prediction: Rams 31, 49ers 17
Pick: Rams +2
