2022 NFL Betting Preview: Jalen Hurts Has Better MVP Odds Than Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson at DraftKings

Few football analysts would place Jalen Hurts among the top-10 quarterbacks in the NFL.

But that’s exactly where he sits when it comes to 2022 NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.

The Eagles’ quarterback has +1800 odds to win MVP as of June 3, which is No. 10 on the list of candidates. He is directly behind Dak Prescott and sits ahead of more established quarterbacks like Kyler Murray (+2000), Derek Carr (+2200) and Lamar Jackson (+2500).

There is not much evidence to suggest Hurts is a more talented player than Murray or Jackson, but his situation is favorable enough for DraftKings to give him some serious respect heading into the season.

The Eagles finished 9-8 in Hurts’ first full season at the helm, making the playoffs after a strong late-season push. He finished with a Total QBR of 48.5 in 2021 and would need to take a serious step forward in order to truly be in the MVP conversation.

It’s not unfathomable, as Jackson and Patrick Mahomes both went from question marks to MVPs early in their careers. However, they have both played at an elite level for long stretches throughout their career, and as a former second-round pick, Hurts does not have the same pedigree.

Other sportsbooks are more in line with the general thinking surrounding Hurts. He has +2500 odds to win MVP at FanDuel and BetMGM, and Caesars has him at +3000, as of June 3. 

The Eagles do look like a much-improved team this year. They added star wide receiver A.J. Brown to team with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert at the skill positions, while boasting a solid offensive line and a defense teeming with talent. The schedule has some very winnable games on it, and if Hurts can dominate inferior competition, his numbers could look good at the end of the year.

The Eagles are not the favorites in the NFC East, but their odds of +165 have closed in on the Dallas Cowboys (+130) this offseason. A division title seems like a prerequisite for Hurts to be considered the NFL’s most valuable player.

This has long felt like a crossroads season for Hurts, who must prove he is the franchise guy moving forward in Philadelphia. If he is in the MVP discussion, that question will be emphatically answered.

Here is a look at DraftKings’ other top candidates for MVP, with analysis of their current odds.

Josh Allen, Bills (+700)

Allen is the favorite to win MVP, and there are some factors working for him. First and foremost, the Bills should be great this season, and the quarterback on a team with the best record is often in the discussion. He also has a great supporting cast and dual-threat ability which makes life tough on defenses.

Even so, I’m cautious. Everyone remembers the epic playoff game against the Chiefs, and maybe that’s the version of Allen we get in 2022. But during the regular season, he only averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, had a quarterback rating of 92.2 and a Total QBR of 60.7. Allen is a bit too unpredictable to wager on at these odds.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (+900)

If you want to go with a favorite, this is the guy to do it with. The degree of difficulty is going to be higher in 2022 as Mahomes will no longer have Tyreek Hill. However, voters know that, and if he can duplicate the success of previous seasons, Mahomes will earn some major plaudits.

He is so talented that there should be an expectation of dominance every season, and these odds are enticing because Mahomes has often been in the +600 range to begin past years. The schedule is not easy, but oftentimes when two great teams face off, fireworks can ensue because the score is close. Mahomes is a dominant player in the prime of his career, and is the candidate I feel most comfortable about backing when it comes to the favorites.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers (+1000)

Rodgers has won back-to-back MVPs, so of course he is going to be among the favorites. However, the departure of Davante Adams was a big blow, and the Packers currently have one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL.

Rodgers is still a dominant player who is able to lift the play of the people around him, so the numbers should be good. But MVP good again? I’d pass on this one. Too many questions for me in Green Bay.

Tom Brady, Buccaneers (+1000)

Brady was once again in the running for MVP last season and the ageless one will return to Tampa Bay with visions of competing for the hardware again. But there are a few reasons I am wary of backing Brady for MVP.

The first is the change at head coach, going from Bruce Arians to Todd Bowles. Brady and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will be running the show when Tampa Bay has the ball, and the play-calling is not going to be conservative, so that’s not an issue, but Bowles could decide to go for more field goals than in past years. If that happens, Brady’s statistics will take a small hit. And then there is the personnel question. Chris Godwin does not yet have a timetable to return from his torn ACL, Antonio Brown is gone, and Rob Gronkowski is undecided on retirement. Too many question marks for me at these odds.

Justin Herbert, Chargers (+1000)

Herbert is a legitimate superstar and he has some nice continuity with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams going on. The Chargers seem poised to leap into the upper echelon of contenders in 2022, which is going to give Herbert a lot of attention.

Everything about him screams future MVP. Could it be this year? I think it’s a good wager. The Chargers have serious talent on both sides of the ball, and if they win the division over the Chiefs then Herbert will definitely be on the short list of candidates.

Joe Burrow, Bengals (+1200)

Burrow led the NFL in yards per attempt last season and got his team to the Super Bowl. However, I’m a bit worried about some regression in 2022 within a division stacked with formidable defenses.

Burrow is a star and Cincy has a good team, but I don’t like the value here.

Russell Wilson, Broncos (+1400)

The narrative will help now that Wilson has joined a new team. If he leads the Broncos to a successful campaign, there will likely be MVP buzz at some point. Wilson is obviously a great player, but his numbers have tailed off in recent years, and the AFC West is a buzzsaw.

The Broncos should be markedly improved in 2022 but could still finish third in the division, which would likely keep Wilson out of the MVP race.

Matthew Stafford, Rams (+1500)

I wouldn’t buy high here. The Rams are the defending Super Bowl champions and have an offense that should be good again. However, it’s unlikely Cooper Kupp duplicates his insane 2021, and the offensive line departures could result in some protection issues.

Stafford is a talented quarterback but was never seen as one of the best until last year. The track record worries me a bit too much, especially at these odds.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys (+1600)

This one is mildly intriguing. Prescott battled some injuries last season and had a down year. He also lost receiver Amari Cooper and right tackle La’el Collins in free agency. Despite that, the Cowboys should have a very good offense once again.

Prescott has enough talent to help Dallas put up points, especially with CeeDee Lamb his go-to guy. The Cowboys could finish with one of the top records in the NFC, so don’t be surprised if Prescott is in the MVP mix.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (+2000)

There is no question Murray can play at an MVP level, as he did through Week 13 in 2021. There was a decline at the end of the season which dropped him from the race, but it’s a pretty big surprise to see him behind Hurts in MVP odds.

The six-game suspension to DeAndre Hopkins, a tough schedule and an uphill battle to win the NFC West are all factors working against Murray, but he boasts the best combination of mobility, arm strength and accuracy in the NFL. Murray might not be flanked by as much talent as some of the other quarterbacks, but his superstar ability makes this a worthwhile wager.

Derek Carr, Raiders (+2200)

Carr has shown flashes of greatness in his career but is clearly not on the same talent level as the elite NFL quarterbacks. The addition of Davante Adams is big-time, and there is no questioning the skill group in Las Vegas.

However, Carr would really need to elevate his game to be in the MVP race, and Las Vegas will need to outplay expectations as a team as well. Unfortunately, being stuck in the AFC West makes this one feel like a longshot.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens (+2500)

This might be the best value on the board. Jackson is a former MVP still in the prime of his career. Baltimore could very well win the AFC North if things come together well in 2022. Jackson is the most dynamic rushing threat of any quarterback in the NFL and his passing may not always look pretty but he gets the job done.

If it came down to Hurts at +1800 or Jackson at +2500, I know where my money would be going. Don’t sleep on the Ravens’ dynamic signal-caller.

Deshaun Watson, Browns (+2800)

If Watson was set to play a full season his odds would be better to win MVP. On the field, he is a very good player and is joining a team with a lot of talent around him. But another sexual misconduct accusation was made this week, bringing the total up to 23, and a suspension seems likely.

Even if Watson plays outstanding football in 2022, there is also going to be a section of voters that may consider the other candidates more heavily because of the off-field issues. Watson would ultimately be responsible for his own suspension, which would negatively affect his value.

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (+4000)

There is a small part of me that would love to roll the dice on this wager. It’s a longshot, sure, and unlikely to pay off. However, the Dolphins added wideout Tyreek Hill, tackle Terron Armstead, center Connor Williams, running back Chase Edmonds and a host of others to the roster this offseason.

Tagovailoa has a great group around him and new coach Mike McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, which is intriguing. And Tua does have the pedigree of being an early first-round pick just a few years ago. All that being said, the red flags are just too prominent. Tagovailoa does not seem to have the requisite arm strength to scare defenses, which will keep him from being a star in the NFL. No MVP bet here.