2022 NFL Betting Preview: High Expectations for Treylon Burks With Tennessee Titans

There were four wide receivers taken within the first 12 picks of the NFL draft, and they were seen as the top tier of pass-catching prospects.

Drake London went 8 to the Falcons, followed by Garrett Wilson at 10 to the Jets, Chris Olave at 11 to the Saints and Jameson Williams 12 to the Lions.

Jahan Dotson was the next wideout taken, at No. 16 to the Commanders, but none of those five wide receivers are projected to have as fine of a rookie season as the sixth one drafted.

Treylon Burks was taken No. 18 overall by Tennessee, and the Arkansas product has already been given some lofty expectations by DraftKings. 

Burks’ receiving yardage over/under for 2022 has been placed at 869.5 yards, which is 105 more than London, the next-closest receiver. 

Burks is also tied with London for the second-best odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +750, trailing only quarterback Kenny Pickett’s +500, who went No. 20 to the Steelers.

It’s not like Burks is a finished product that is more NFL-ready than the others. He still needs work on his route-running and may not be a prime target as a traditional downfield receiver.

But a couple things are working in his favor. 

First is the setup in Tennessee. The Titans released Julio Jones and then traded A.J. Brown this offseason, leaving a massive gulf in talent at wide receiver. Robert Woods was acquired from the Rams, but he tore his ACL in mid-November and it’s unknown when he will be fully recovered.

Burks should have an easy path to both playing time and targets. Even though the Titans should continue to be a run-heavy offense behind Derrick Henry, Burks could be a main aerial weapon from the jump.

The second reason is his skillset. Even though Burks isn’t a perfect wide receiver, he has major yards-after-catch ability. After Deebo Samuel’s standout season in San Francisco, teams will be trying to incorporate a player in that role — getting him the ball in a variety of ways and allowing the athleticism to take over.

Athletic's Dane Brugler:
"Overall, Burks is underdeveloped as an outside route runner, but he is a dynamic weapon with the ball in his hands and boasts the unique blend of size, athleticism and ball skills to grow into an NFL team’s No. 1 WR. He compares to a LB-sized Deebo."

— John Glennon (@glennonsports) April 29, 2022

It’s not a stretch to think Burks will get several touches per game through bubble screens, jet sweeps or other made-for-him offensive play-calls. If he can turn those into big plays, then the Titans will be feeling good about their draft pick, and Burks will be on his way to surpassing his gaudy receiving total and pushing for Rookie of the Year.

A note of caution, though: Only 31 players had 870 or more receiving yards a season ago, even with the expansion to 17 games. If Burks takes time to assimilate or misses a few games due to injury, the over/under could prove to be too ambitious.

The pick: Burks under 869.5 receiving yards

Here are the over/under receiving yardage totals for the other wide receivers chosen in the first round, according to DraftKings. Jameson Williams’ total is not yet listed.

Drake London, Falcons: 764.5 receiving yards (Over -115; Under -115)

Rookie of the Year odds: +750

London went first among the receivers and should be able to make a quick impact. Tight end Kyle Pitts might be quarterback Marcus Mariota’s top target, but London doesn’t have much competition to be the go-to guy among the receivers. Atlanta will be trailing in most games, which will help the passing game volume. However, Mariota is a dual-threat and the offensive game-plan might not include airing it out on many occasions. All in all, London is in a good enough situation to get plenty of targets and yards.

The pick: London over 764.5 receiving yards

Garrett Wilson, Jets: 749.5 receiving yards (Over -115; Under -115)

Rookie of the Year odds: +1000

Wilson is a very good receiver in a bad situation. Second-year quarterback Zach Davis was horrendous last season as a rookie and really needs to make some serious strides to become a competent quarterback. Corey Davis and Elijah Moore are around to compete for passing game targets, while the Jets also drafted Breece Hall early and may make the running game a big focus. 

Pick: Wilson under 749.5 receiving yards

Chris Olave, Saints: 719.5 receiving yards (Over -125; Under -105)

Rookie of the Year odds: +1000

The Saints traded up to select Olave, so there is no question they will want him to be a big part of the offense early on. Jameis Winston put up big passing yardage numbers with the Buccaneers in the past but that was very tampered down with the Saints before he tore his ACL. New Orleans may not air it out this season, and there is also the concern that Michael Thomas will be back healthy and gobble up much of the passing game volume. The Saints’ defense is also good enough to avoid the need for furious late-game comebacks. It all adds up to a lesser-than-expected rookie campaign for Olave.

Pick: Olave under 719.5 receiving yards 

Jahan Dotson, Commanders: 709.5 receiving yards (Over +100; Under -130)

Rookie of the Year odds: +1800

If Dotson can get behind the defense a few times, it would really help his chance at hitting the over on his total. However, his 4.43-second 40-yard dash is good but not great, and Dotson may be used more on shorter routes as a rookie. The Commanders have Terry McLaurin to command the most targets, while Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas are both dependable veterans. Add in the presence of the erratic Carson Wentz at quarterback, and Dotson’s path to this many receiving yards as a rookie seems dubious. The juice is this way for a reason.

Pick: Dotson under 709.5 receiving yards