2022 NFL Betting Preview: Examining Rushing Yardage and Touchdown Totals for James Conner

James Conner had a renaissance season in 2021, taking a one-year prove-it deal in Arizona and, well, proving it.

The veteran running back had 752 rushing yards, 375 receiving yards on a career-high 9.6 yards per target, and 18 total touchdowns. Conner had 15 rushing scores, which tied for second in the NFL behind only Jonathan Taylor and helped him garner a Pro Bowl nod.

The Cardinals had two big decisions to make at running back this offseason, as both Conner and dynamic scatback Chase Edmonds were free agents. 

Arizona went with Conner and believes he can put up strong numbers again in 2022. The sportsbooks have unveiled many player prop bets as the regular season approaches.

Here is a look at the ones available for Conner, with my analysis on whether the over or under makes more sense.

James Conner Rushing Yardage

DraftKings: 825.5(Over -115; Under -115)
FanDuel: 825.5 (Over -112; Under -112)
BetMGM: 824.5 (Over -115; Under -115)

Not much variance among the sportsbooks. FanDuel makes the most sense on both sides of this bet because the -112 juice is more valuable than the one yard difference with BetMGM.

The question: Will Conner go under or over his total?

The Cardinals gave the 27-year-old a lavish three-year deal worth $21 million, with $13.5 million guaranteed, this offseason. The backup running back candidates are Eno Benjamin, a former seventh-round pick with minimal in-game production, and Darrel Williams, a pass-catching back who wasn’t offered a contract by his former team, the Chiefs.

That would seem to indicate a heavy load for Conner this season, but hold on. Coach Kliff Kingsbury has talked about keeping Conner fresh, seemingly more interested in a tandem like last year’s Conner and Edmonds duo than an absolute bellcow.

Will Conner get most of the work? Of course. But the distribution will be interesting. 

Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury thinks RB James Conner can handle a larger workload but sometimes they have to “save him from himself.” He has a relentless work ethic. pic.twitter.com/B2S3oxMBO0

— Bo Brack (@BoBrack) July 27, 2022

I see two other areas for concern. Even though he made the Pro Bowl, Conner averaged only 3.7 yards per carry last season, a career-low. His Rush Yards Over Expectation of negative-0.28 was tenth-worst in the NFL.

While some positive regression is likely this season, Conner’s abilities remind me of the old Leroy Hoard quote: “Coach, if you need one yard, I’ll get you three. If you need five yards, I’ll get you three.”

Conner is a bruising back who can grind out tough yards, but he doesn’t have the burst or lateral quickness to break off big gainers with regularity.

And then there is the injury concern. Conner stayed healthy last season, but he was available on the cheap in 2021 because of a litany of physical issues previously. He’s had connective tissue injuries, which tend to reoccur, making him more injury-prone than the average running back.

Add it all together, and I’m skeptical Conner can reach 826 rushing yards in 2022.

Conclusion: James Conner ‘under’ 825.5 rushing yards on FanDuel (-112)

James Conner Rushing Touchdowns

DraftKings: 9.5 (Under -120; Over -110)
FanDuel: 8.5 (Over -126; Under -102)
BetMGM: 9.5 (Under -120; Over -110)

Even though I’m not the biggest fan of Conner as an every-down back, there is no question he is a beast at the goal-line. Conner showed that time and again last season, averaging a rushing touchdown per game he played for the Cardinals.

Now, that was an outlier football season that will be hard to duplicate, which is why the sportsbooks have brought his rushing touchdown over/under way down for 2022.

But it looks too low.

While quarterback Kyler Murray is going to steal some goal-line scores with his legs, the wide receiver corps is not set up to dominate near the goal-line. Players like Hollywood Brown, Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz are at their best winning matchups in the middle of the field, not necessarily in the red zone.

DeAndre Hopkins will be Murray’s top scoring target when he returns to the field, but that won’t be for six games.

Additionally, the Cardinals witnessed Conner’s touchdown exploits last season, and Kingsbury will therefore be likely to give him the ball when the Cardinals are sniffing seven points.

This all sets up well for another stellar rushing touchdown campaign, and don’t discount the Arizona defense, either. The Cardinals may need to score more this season if the other side of the ball takes a step back, as expected.

While passing takes precedence in the middle of the field when time is of the essence, teams will do whatever they can to score touchdowns once near the goal-line, and Conner could be the beneficiary of that.

There are two ways to play this bet, by either going with FanDuel at the higher vig or with DraftKings/BetMGM at the higher touchdown total. If Conner stays healthy, I think he can reach double digits in scores, which is why I like the -110 juice. If he misses half the season due to injury, neither will hit, anyway.

Conclusion: James Conner ‘over’ 9.5 rushing touchdowns at BetMGM (-110)