2022 NFL Betting Preview: Examining Early Regular Season Win Totals in the NFC

There are still several months to go before the regular season, but DraftKings has unveiled regular season win totals for every NFL team.

Here is a look at each NFC club, with my initial thoughts on whether the over or under is the better play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Win total: 11.5

Pick: Over (-110)

The Buccaneers have one of the strongest rosters in the NFL and the return of Tom Brady places them right next to the Rams as the NFC favorites heading into the season. The NFC South is a trainwreck and Tampa could easily get five or six wins within the division. 

New Orleans Saints

Win total: 7.5

Pick: Over (-120)

The Saints didn’t land a star quarterback this offseason but Jameis Winston returns and is an adequate player at the position. New Orleans lost some talent because of its horrific salary cap situation but there are still a lot of talented pieces on the roster. The Saints should be in the wild card mix again this year with a healthy Winston under center.

Carolina Panthers

Win total: 6

Pick: Under (-110)

This is a tough one, because it all comes down to Carolina’s quarterback situation. The belief here is that the Panthers will draft a signal-caller and eventually give him the reins as the starter, as Sam Darnold and Cam Newton are clearly not the long-term answers. There will be speed bumps along the way, and while there is some talent on this team, the offense will be inept and the losses will pile up.

Atlanta Falcons

Win total: 5.5

Pick: Under (+100)

Atlanta is one of the most talent-bereft teams in the NFL, as its record a season ago was a mirage. Marcus Mariota is now taking over for Matt Ryan, which is a considerable downgrade. The NFL has so much parity that teams can always get to six wins by having close-game luck, but it’s going to be an uphill battle for this group.

Dallas Cowboys

Win total: 10.5

Pick: Over (-105)

The Cowboys lost some key pieces this offseason but still have a talented group. The offense should be among the best in the conference and there should be several easy wins within the division. Dallas might not be as good as last year’s 12-win outfit but 11 wins is doable.

Philadelphia Eagles

Win total: 8.5

Pick: Over (+100)

This is one of my favorite picks, especially at the +100 odds. The Eagles have a nice roster and have three first-round draft choices to bolster it up next month. Jalen Hurts may not be a great quarterback, but he has shown flashes, and should be solid enough to lead the team to an above-.500 finish in 2022. 

New York Giants

Win total: 7.5

Pick: Under (-135)

Bettors have already jumped on the under, and deservedly so. The Giants have a pair of top-10 picks coming up in the draft, which is a big help, but the roster has myriad holes, and quarterback Daniel Jones has struggled throughout his career. New York might be better than last year but eight wins is a stretch.

Washington Commanders

Win total: 7.5

Pick: Under (-120)

The Carson Wentz trade does not inspire much hope around these parts. Washington had one of the worst point-differentials in the NFL last season, and for all of the individual talent on defense, that side of the ball never came together. There is some upside with this team but in reality, another 7-10 campaign would not be surprising.

Green Bay Packers

Win total: 11

Pick: Under (+105)

This win total seems right on, so when in doubt, take the better odds. The plus money is on the under, and even though Green Bay is coming off a 13-win campaign, regression seems highly likely. Aaron Rodgers has put up back-to-back MVP seasons and that type of production is never a guarantee. A point-differential of only plus-79 last year was not dominant. And the loss of Davante Adams is huge. 

Minnesota Vikings

Win total: 9

Pick: Over (-110)

Minnesota is kind of in a weird state of flux, as a potential rebuild didn’t come this offseason as some expected. The Vikings added Z’Darius Smith to team with Danielle Hunter on defense, and Kirk Cousins is back at quarterback. Minnesota might not be a true contender, but it’s good enough on both sides of the ball to reach double-digit wins and challenge Green Bay for the division title.

Chicago Bears

Win total: 7.5

Pick: Under (-130)

This total jumps out as being too optimistic. Justin Fields was inconsistent as a rookie, and while a second-year jump is possible, it’s far from a guarantee. The Bears lost Khalil Mack, Tarik Cohen and Allen Robinson this offseason, taking away some of their best talent. Chicago seems likely to struggle 

Detroit Lions

Win total: 6

Pick: Under (-105)

Detroit might be making incremental progress, but it’s still a long way from being a viable playoff contender. This total seems right on, but getting to 7-10 would be a pretty major accomplishment for the Lions. The more likely scenario is a push or a five-win campaign after going 3-13-1 last year.

Los Angeles Rams

Win total: 10.5

Pick: Over (-115)

The Rams are a top-heavy team, so injuries to key personnel could hurt them more than others. They also have a grueling schedule in 2022. However, this team is coming off a Super Bowl and returns most of its game-changing players. The Rams should get to 11 wins this year and could even go higher than that.

San Francisco 49ers

Win total: 10

Pick: Over (-115)

Second-year quarterback Trey Lance is a tremendous wild card here, but the potential is there for San Francisco to have a truly dominant outfit in 2022. The talent on the roster is among the NFL’s best and coach Kyle Shanahan regularly gives his team a schematic advantage. If Lance cannot threaten teams enough with his arm the 49ers could drop to third in the division, but the belief here is that he lives up to his draft status. And if so, this team could win the Super Bowl.

Arizona Cardinals

Win total: 9

Pick: Under (-110)

The Cardinals have been shockingly quiet in free agency. While there is still time to bulk up the roster, it’s hard to believe the 2022 group will be as talented as last year’s version. Arizona will play the Rams twice, the 49ers twice, the Chiefs, Buccaneers, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders and Patriots, among others, next season. After three seasons of progress, a step back next year seems most likely.

Seattle Seahawks

Win total: 6.5

Pick: Under (-120)

The Seahawks are in the midst of a major rebuild, whether they want to believe it or not. Even if Baker Mayfield eventually comes aboard, the roster flaws that Russell Wilson covered up will be extremely evident in 2022. Seattle has a brutal schedule and has little chance of staying afloat next year. It could be one of the worst teams in the NFL.