2022 NFL Betting Preview: Christian Kirk’s Low Yardage Total and Four Other Wide Receiver Props To Consider

Christian Kirk single-handedly altered the wide receiver market when he signed an $18 million-dollar-per-year deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency.

Many considered it an overpay at the time, and the oddsmakers at DraftKings seem to agree. 

The receiving yardage totals for many of the NFL’s biggest names have been released, and Kirk’s low total immediately stands out. 

The 26-year-old receiver needs to surpass only 825.5 yards in 2022 in order for the over to hit. Injuries have affected Kirk in the past, but even if he misses a game or two, the Jaguars and Kirk would likely be disappointed if he ended the year at 825 yards or fewer.

There are two main reasons to pound the over on this bet heading into the season.

• The first: Schematic fit. Kirk was finally allowed to play a full-time slot role with the Cardinals in 2021, his fourth year in the league, and excelled at his natural position. He finished the year with 77 catches for 982 yards and five touchdowns despite seeing only 103 targets. Kirk was No. 3 in EPA out of the slot, according to Nate Tice of The Athletic, and while the Jaguars have spoken of his versatility, it seems exceedingly likely that he remains inside in Jacksonville.
• The second: Opportunity. The Jaguars paid Kirk a lot of money and will naturally want to see a return on that investment. That means calling plays that are designed to go his way, as well as a natural flow from quarterback Trevor Lawrence that will keep Kirk heavily involved.

Top 10 EPA/slot target for WRs with 300+ slot snaps in '21:

C. Kupp: .72 (119 slot targets lol)
Q. Watkins: .63 (39)
C. Kirk: .58 (76)
KJ Osborn: .56 (45)
T. Hill: .51 (81)
C. Wilson: .49 (58)
H. Renfrow: .48 (71)
A. St. Brown: .29 (78)
K. Allen: .28 (82)
M. Hardman: .17 (44)

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) July 7, 2022

Speaking of Lawrence, he was drafted No. 1 overall for a reason and should be able to improve on his measly 6.0 yards per attempt figure as a rookie. Despite those struggles, Marvin Jones finished with 832 receiving yards a season ago.

Jones is still on the team, but Kirk should naturally be considered the top aerial option. 

Jacksonville could struggle throwing once again, or the injuries that bit Kirk earlier in his career could pop back up. However, a relatively normal campaign should send him zooming past the receiving yardage total, as a thousand-yard season isn’t out of the question now that we are looking at 17 games.

Kirk’s contract may be a tad rich because he’s not a truly elite receiver, but there is plenty of skill there, and bettors can take advantage.

Verdict: Christian Kirk over 825.5 receiving yards (-115)

Here are four other receiving prop bets to consider:

WR Michael Thomas, Saints: Over/Under 800.5 receiving yards

Thomas is one of the best receivers in the NFL when healthy, but there is still a cloud of suspicion surrounding an ankle injury that kept him out all of last season. Thomas played only seven games in 2020 as well, making his dominant 2019 campaign — 149 catches for 1,725 yards — a thing of the past.

Thomas is only 29 years old so age isn’t the problem, but coach Dennis Allen said this offseason that New Orleans “hopes” its star pass-catcher will be ready for training camp. The recurring nature of the injury is worrisome, and once he does get on the field, Drew Brees will no longer be there to pepper him with targets.

Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry are now in the mix, making Thomas’ halcyon days of dominance likely a thing of the past. There are way too many questions here for me.

Verdict: Michael Thomas ‘under’ 800.5 receiving yards (-115)

WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers: Over/Under 1,025.5 receiving yards

Mike Evans is a talented and durable player still in the prime of his career. The weapons around him have diminished this offseason, likely resulting in more targets from elite quarterback Tom Brady.

So what am I missing here? This feels like an episode of Punk’d because this is a slam dunk bet. 

Evans has surpassed 1,025.5 receiving yards in six of his eight seasons, including three in which he missed games. Like any player, there is a chance for injury, but it’s really hard to envision Evans playing 15 or more games and finishing under 1,026 receiving yards.

Brady is still potent in the pocket and without Antonio Brown or Rob Gronkowski, will be looking Evans’ way plenty. Don’t over-think this one.

Verdict: Mike Evans ‘over’ 1,025 receiving yards (-115)

WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks: Over/Under 900.5 receiving yards

There is no denying Metcalf’s talent. But one look at the quarterback situation in Seattle rings alarm bells about a production drop-off in 2022.

Metcalf will likely be catching passes from either Drew Lock or Geno Smith this season. Last year, with Russell Wilson shelved for a decent chunk of the year, Metcalf finished with 967 receiving yards, and now he is staring at 17 games without a competent arm getting him the football.

Additionally, teams will be happy to give safety help Metcalf’s way and force Seatte’s quarterback to dink-and-dunk down the field to score points. To cap it off, Pete Carroll’s offensive philosophy doesn’t help. He will be happy to be in 20-17 games where the running game and defense play a large role.

Metcalf is a great player in a lousy situation. Hopefully he gets paid before the season because a statistical regression seems imminent.

Verdict: DK Metcalf ‘under’ 900.5 receiving yards (-115)

WR Darnell Mooney, Bears: Over/Under 950.5 receiving yards

At first glance, you might be thinking: That’s pretty rich for Darnell Mooney. 

But please look at the Chicago wide receiver corps, and you’ll soon realize that a second straight 1,000-yard season could be a formality if Mooney stays healthy.

The 24-year-old saw 140 targets a season ago and should be in line to be in that neighborhood again. Even though Mooney averaged a middling 7.5 yards per target in 2021, there was so much volume that he finished with 1,055 receiving yards.

Mooney isn’t the same caliber of receiver as Evans or Metcalf, but the Bears are going to be trailing a lot this season, and Justin Fields will be looking his way often. Target share is extremely important when it comes to counting stats and Mooney is going to be the main aerial weapon in Chicago.

Verdict: Darnell Mooney ‘over’ 950.5 receiving yards (-115)