BumblesBangerz has been a sports wagering consultant for more than a decade, and will be making picks against the spread all season at Compare.bet. Here are his predictions for Week 5 of the NFL campaign.
(Note: This article publishes on Thursday and the weekend picks may be updated based on breaking news or injuries.)
Indianapolis Colts (+3) at Denver Broncos
Thursday, October 6 at 8:15 p.m. ET
With this line moving back down to three, I’m inclined to take the Broncos as short favorites at home. Both teams will be without their starting running backs in this game and the Colts have also ruled out Shaquille Leonard and Tyquan Lewis on the defensive side of things. Neither of these teams is having much success running the football this season so I’m taking the squad with the better quarterback. Russell Wilson also has a great primetime record at home and has been looking more comfortable lately. Take the Broncos to win by at least a field goal at Mile High.
Score prediction: Broncos 21, Colts 17
Pick: Broncos -3
New York Giants (+8) vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 9 at 9:30 a.m. ET
This line feels pretty spot on to me with the many injuries the Giants are dealing with currently. It’s starting to look like Daniel Jones should be able to play in this one after practicing on Wednesday and the line could move closer to seven if this is made official. I like New York to continue to have success running the football in this game, control the clock, and move to 4-1 ATS on the year.
Score prediction: Packers 24, Giants 17
Pick: Giants +8
Pittsburgh Steelers (+14) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
I probably don’t need to list the reasons why the Bills should win this game with ease. This is the biggest underdog spread for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 50 years and the largest of Tomlin’s career. Road underdogs are covering at an insane rate both this season and historically and Tomlin has one of the best underdog records of a head coach in NFL history. I don’t think Pittsburgh has any chance to upset in this one but given the trends and Kenny Pickett giving this stagnant offense some much-needed life, I’ve got to roll with the Steelers to keep this one within two touchdowns.
Score prediction: Bills 27, Steelers 17
Pick: Steelers +14
Atlanta Falcons (+8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
With this line moving down a bit, I like the Bucs to cover at home. I think the Falcons could keep it close but I like this spot for Tampa to get back on track and gain some confidence. Tom Brady is 10-0 vs. Atlanta including 4-0 with the Buccaneers by a winning margin of 57 points. This should be a double-digit spread in my opinion.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 17
Pick: Buccaneers -8
Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
This is a great buy-low spot for Miami in my opinion. The Jets barely beat the Pittsburgh Steelers who have looked awful this year and made a QB switch halfway through the game. I don’t think this line stays here. Tua is out but Bridgewater is 24-6 ATS on the road and is the 5th most profitable QB ATS in the last 20 years behind the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. Take Miami and the points in this one while you still can.
Score prediction: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
Pick: Dolphins -3
Chicago Bears (+7) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
I can make an argument for the Bears to cover the 7 here so this isn’t my most confident pick but I’m going to give the 3-1 Vikings a chance here. Vikings are a playoff-caliber team and the Bears just aren’t. Their offense has been terrible and they are now down an offensive lineman in Cody Whitehair. I think the Vikings take an early lead and control this game. Take the Vikings as long as this stays at 7 or better.
Score prediction: Vikings 27, Bears 17
Pick: Vikings -7
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
This matchup favors the Browns. The Chargers are 31st in the league at defending the run and the Browns have been having a lot of success in this category. Nick Chubb should have a field day against this severely injured squad. Take Browns +3 and to win outright in Cleveland.
Score prediction: Browns 24, Chargers 21
Pick: Browns +3
Houston Texans (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
Tough rivalry game and the line feels pretty sharp. The Jaguars have been impressing me all year long and even looked pretty good in their loss to the only undefeated team in the league. The Texans have won 8 straight vs. the Jags and have won 14 of their last 16 matchups. Jacksonville should be favored here but it is still experiencing some growing pains. Given the division trends, I like my odds on the Texans to keep this game close and extend their record ATS to 4-1 on the season.
Score prediction: Jaguars 24, Texans 21
Pick: Texans +7
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
Washington has lost three straight and its offensive line has been handing out sacks left and right. The Commanders are now dealing with even more injuries while Derrick Henry is coming off his best game of the season where he rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown. I’m going to give the Titans a chance here to win another close game and extend their win streak to 3.
Score prediction: Titans 24, Commanders 20
Pick: Titans -2.5
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
The Saints are only averaging 19.5 PPG this season and will be a bit worn down after their London game. Their defense hasn’t been good either and the Seahawks have surpassed my expectations and then some this year offensively. I think they could win this game outright so take Seattle +5.5 and sprinkle the money line as well.
Score prediction: Seahawks 24, Saints 21
Pick: Seahawks +5.5
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 9 at 4:05 p.m. ET
This is another low-scoring game where the trends favor the underdog. When totals are below 42, underdogs are 95-60-4 ATS since 2018 and are covering 60% of games so far this season. Both defenses have been decent so I like this game to stay under the total. I don’t have a ton of trust in Jimmy G and the 49ers are dealing with a ton of injuries so I’m backing Baker Mayfield and the Panthers and would buy the hook up to 7 if the price is right.
Score prediction: 49ers 21, Panthers 17
Pick: Panthers +6.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 9 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Cardinals can be unpredictable but the Eagles are firing on all cylinders and truly look like one of, if not the best, team in the league right now. They rank second overall on offense and are the third best in total defense. The Eagles are putting up 28.8 points per game, good for fourth best in the league while Arizona is giving up 25.8 points per game, which is fifth worst. I like the Eagles to continue winning and I think this should be closer to a touchdown. Take the Eagles and the points.
Score prediction: Eagles 28, Cardinals 21
Pick: Eagles -5.5
Detroit Lions (+3) at New England Patriots
Sunday, October 9 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Fun fact: Teams that score 40-plus points and lose straight up are 14-6 against the spread in their next game. The Lions are 1-3 but haven’t looked as bad as their record suggests. They are 3-1 ATS this season and kept their game close with the 4-0 Eagles. The Patriots are most likely rolling with their third-string QB in this one and are a shell of their former selves. The Lions are due for a win! Take Detroit at the key betting number of 3 and to pull off the upset.
Score prediction: Lions 24, Patriots 21
Pick: Lions +3
Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 9 at 4:25 p.m. ET
While the Rams do have an advantage here in many areas, I simply cannot bet on them after their showing last week on primetime. I think the Cowboys behind Cooper Rush can stick around and keep this game close. The Rams struggled vs. the 49ers’ defensive line and now face off against an even better one. Their defense didn’t show much and their offense couldn’t put up any points. They threw the ball to Cooper Kupp an outrageous amount of times and don’t seem to have a backup plan on the short week off. Take the Cowboy’s spread at 5.5.
Score prediction: Rams 23, Cowboys 20
Pick: Cowboys +5.5
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 9 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Cincinnati went 2-0 vs. Baltimore last season and you can bet that the Ravens haven’t forgotten. The Ravens are better than 2-2 and this is a great chance for them to get revenge vs. Joe Burrow and the Bengals who haven’t lived up to expectations. I like the Ravens to get the decisive division win at home and would take them at -3 or better. Otherwise I’d stay off or take the moneyline.
Score prediction: Ravens 27, Bengals 23
Pick: Ravens -3
Las Vegas Raiders (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, October 10 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Kansas City just put up 189 rushing yards vs. the best rush defense in the league and won by a convincing 10 points. This is arguably the best team in the league and Patrick Mahomes is looking better than ever. Last year, the Chiefs outscored the Raiders 89-23 and I can’t figure out a reason why this season will be a whole lot different. Andy Reid, Mahomes, and the Chiefs will continue to dominate this rivalry. Take the Chiefs and the points.
Score prediction: Chiefs 31, Raiders 20
Pick: Chiefs -7
Last week’s record against the spread: 6-9-1
Overall: 33-28-2
