BumblesBangerz has been a sports wagering consultant for more than a decade, and will be making picks against the spread all season at Compare.bet. Here are his predictions for Week 3 of the NFL campaign.
(Note: This article publishes on Thursday and the weekend picks may be updated based on breaking news or injuries.)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) at Cleveland Browns
Thursday, September 22 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike Tomlin has covered nearly 70% of games as the underdog in his NFL career. The Steelers are also 20-3-1 in the Tomlin era including 5-1 ATS in their last six and 14-4-1 straight up in their last 10. The Browns, on the other hand, are 1-5 in their last six games in Cleveland. They lost outright as nearly 7-point favorites last week; as I said last week, Jacoby Brissett should not be getting points vs. any professional football team.
I do think Pittsburgh continues to struggle offensively in this game. I don’t see them fixing their offense with the short week and for Cleveland to rely on their run game and control the clock. Both defenses will make big stops in this game. Road underdogs are 9-6 ATS this season and have covered 55% of games since 2018 which is a significant edge… This record gets even better when you factor in the low total, currently set at just 38.5 points. Take the Steelers to cover in what should be another low-scoring defensive game with 15-20 MPH winds in the forecast.
Score prediction: Browns 17, Steelers 16
Pick: Steelers +4.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
Saw some value in the Indianapolis Colts as 7-point underdogs but the line has now moved to 5.5 in favor of the Chiefs. The Colts are coming off a tie and a loss vs. the lowly Texans and Jaguars who shut them out. They now face an elite team with arguably the best quarterback in the league who put up 71 in their first two games. Could personally see this one getting a bit out of hand, lay the points with the Chiefs at anything under a touchdown.
Score prediction: Chiefs 31, Colts 20
Pick: Chiefs -5.5
Buffalo Bills (-6) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
Tough game but should be a great one, Buffalo seems like the obvious choice but the Dolphins and Tua have looked great early in the season. The Bills won their first two by an average of 19 points and are still the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl in 2023. I do see a bit of value in Dolphins on the moneyline but the Bills are clicking right now and I do not feel comfortable betting against them.
Buffalo has won seven straight vs Miami and nine of their last 10, in part due to Josh Allen’s 7-1 record and 106.9 QB rating against them. I understand the Tua hype right now after a stunning fourth quarter comeback against the Ravens, scoring 28 points to improve to 2-0 but I think that train comes to a grinding halt this Sunday. Miami’s defense this season has given up the 10th most passing yards and now and I don’t think they have what it takes to outscore this squad. Take Buffalo at anything better than -7.
Score prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 20
Pick: Bills -6
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at New England Patriots
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
As mentioned in the last write-up, Baltimore gave up a huge lead to the Dolphins in the fourth quarter but looked great offensively behind Jackson, picking apart Miami’s defense for the majority of the game. A ton of the trends point to New England in this spot but they simply have not impressed me this year. Belichick will pull out all the stops in this one and has dominated the recent rivalry with the Ravens but this was all in the Brady era so take it should be taken with a grain of salt. With the line now at -2.5 from 3, I like the Ravens to bounce back and cover the short spread on the road.
Score prediction: Ravens 24, Patriots 20
Pick: Ravens -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
Philly has won eight of its last 10 vs. Washington. I think this trend continues in Week 3 but by how many points is the big question. Is there value in the home underdog? Maybe, but with the line at 6.5, I’ll put my money on the soaring Eagles to build on a convincing win vs. Minnesota and take this on the road by at least a touchdown. Washington is just not a good football team and did not impress me this year (and that was against the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville). Take the Eagles at -7 or better in this one.
Score prediction: Eagles 31, Commanders 21
Pick: Eagles -6.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at New York Jets
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
The Super Bowl loser curse we discussed in Week 1 is in full effect. Cincy has now dropped two straight games to open its season as touchdown favorites. I see this as a buy-low spot for the former AFC champs. The Bengals are struggling on offense but what better way to get back to their former selves than to beat up on the Jets’ horrendous defense? I think we see some regression from Joe Flacco this Sunday and Joe Burrow finds himself in a big way. Take Cincinnati to win and cover with ease.
Score prediction: Bengals 27, Jets 17
Pick: Bengals -5
Detroit Lions (+6) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
Minnesota will come into this one off of a loss to the Eagles in primetime and on a short week. Games between these teams have historically been close and I could see this continuing here. The Vikings should be the better football team overall but the Lions’ offense has looked good while Minnesota’s defense has been stagnant. I predict the Vikings to bounce back and win in this one but for Detroit to cover as a road underdog in a close game.
Score prediction: Vikings 28, Lions 24
Pick: Lions +6
Las Vegas Raiders (-2) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
The Titans are on a short week and coming off their first 30-point loss in five years after falling to the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills. They are still struggling to get anything going offensively with Derrick Henry and it has shown as they have yet to score more than 20 points in a game this year. The Raiders could easily take control of this football game but I am going to give Josh McDaniels one more chance to correct their offensive woes and get a much-needed win. The Raiders love losing as favorites while the Titans thrive as home underdogs. Expect the 12th man to be on the field most of the game and for the Titans to win outright against Las Vegas.
Score prediction: Titans 24, Raiders 21
Pick: Titans +2.5
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
Baker Mayfield and the Panther are hungry for their first win and find themselves as 3-point underdogs to New Orleans at home. 0-2 teams in the NFL are covering 61% of games in Week 3 historically. With the trends and my gut telling me to take the Panthers, along with the low total of just 40.5 and dropping, take the Panthers as underdogs. I recommend buying the hook here if we lose the key betting number of three throughout the week or even taking them on the moneyline for a smaller wager.
Score prediction: Saints 21, Panthers 20
Pick: Panthers +3
Houston Texans (+3) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 25 at 1 p.m. ET
The Texans looked horrible last week so it comes as no surprise that they are underdogs in Week 3. I would have loved to hop on the Bears at -2.5 earlier in the week but a field goal shouldn’t be a problem with their defense on the field. Both these teams are bad and though this feels like a tossup where I typically follow the trends and favor the dog, I’m rolling with Chicago to win and cover the spread at home and would stay off if it rises to 3.5 by kickoff.
Score prediction: Bears 21, Texans 17
Pick: Bears -3
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, September 25 at 4:05 p.m. ET
With the status of Justin Herbert still up in the air, we won’t get into this one too much. We’ve caught this line move from -10 in favor of LA down to 7 points this week. He is currently practicing and listed as day-to-day but even if he plays I could see him being limited or not himself in this one. Jacksonville has been pleasantly surprising behind Trevor Lawrence and I could see them stealing this one on the road. Probably best to wait until this line settles but we are going to roll with Jags +7 now. If Herbert is listed out we could see this be closer to a 3-point game by kickoff.
Score prediction: Chargers 27, Jaguars 21
Pick: Jaguars +7
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 25 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals pulled off a miraculous win last week in overtime against the Las Vegas Raiders due to a late 16-point run in the fourth quarter but have shown struggles overall on the season. I think that’s giving us value on the Rams. LA is 10-1 straight up in their last 11 against Arizona while the Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Sean McVay is also 5-1-1 ATS and 6-1 straight up vs. Kingsbury. LA has a significant edge on both sides of the football and a clear one in coaching in my opinion so this one is a no-brainer. My pick against the spread is Rams -3.5 but would advise buying the hook to get an even -3 here if the price is right.
Score prediction: Rams 27, Cardinals 22
Pick: Rams -3.5
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, September 25 at 4:25 p.m. ET
This will most likely be a stay-away game for me, at least for the time being, but I lean toward the Packers to cover and win in a low-scoring game with the number of key Buccaneers more than likely sidelined in this one. Already seeing line movement with the injuries and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers are favored by kickoff after the official injury report is released. Look for Green Bay to cover the short spread after a convincing win last week vs. the Chicago Bears.
Score prediction: Packers 21, Buccaneers 20
Pick: Packers +1.5
Atlanta Falcons (+2) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 25 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Seattle surprised us when they beat their former teammate Russell Wilson and his Broncos in Week 1, but have been lifeless ever since, scoring just seven points on special teams. They are back at home here so maybe they do it again but the Falcons are the better team in this one and we’re getting them as underdogs. This fits our road-dog trend as well as the underdog trend for low-scoring games we’ve been discussing this year which only solidifies this pick for me. Take Atlanta to win and cover the +2 in this game. Their offense has been solid and they showed a lot of fight at the end of their Week 2 loss to the defending Super Bowl champs to cover the spread.
Score prediction: Falcons 24, Seahawks 17
Pick: Falcons +2
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 25 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Tough game to get a read on with the injuries for both of these teams but I like the 49ers’ defense to keep Wilson and company in check. They are giving up just 4.1 yards per play this season, good for the best in the league. This could spell trouble for a struggling Denver offense. Take the 49ers to cover anything under 3.5 points on the road.
Score prediction: 49ers 24, Broncos 21
Pick: 49ers -1.5
Dallas Cowboys (+1) at New York Giants
Monday, September 26 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The 2-0 Giants host the 1-1 Cowboys in this primetime MNF matchup. Dallas is 8-1 in its last nine away games, 17-7 in its last 24, and has covered in four straight on the road. The Cowboys also fit our trends of low-scoring games and road dogs. I think the wrong team is favored here, even with Dak Prescott out. There’s a reason the Giants are such short favorites in this one despite the perfect record. Take the Cowboys to cover and win.
Score prediction: Cowboys 17, Giants 14
Pick: Cowboys +1
Last week’s record: 8-8
Overall: 16-15
