2022 NFL Betting Preview: Breaking Down the AFC Team Win Totals

There are still several months to go before the regular season, but DraftKings has unveiled regular season win totals for every NFL team.

Here is a look at each AFC club, with my initial thoughts on whether the over or under is the better play. Note: The Cleveland Browns are not yet listed because of the unknown nature of a Deshaun Watson suspension.

The NFC breakdown can be found here.

Buffalo Bills

Win total: 11.5

Pick: Over (-135)

The Bills are the Super Bowl favorites and are poised to be a juggernaut in 2022. This total is tricky because even a solid 11-6 season would not hit the over, but look for Buffalo to really excel in the regular season. This team should be in the mix for the best record in the NFL, and as early wagers are showing, the over is the correct play.

New England Patriots

Win total: 8.5

Pick: Under (+105)

The Patriots lost star cornerback J.C. Jackson and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, among others, this offseason. The team had an extremely easy schedule last season and that isn’t the case this year. Much of this depends on the progress of quarterback Mac Jones. If he can take a big step forward, New England will be in the playoff hunt and could reach double-digit wins. But he has major limitations and now teams have a year’s worth of tape to dissect. The plus money is attractive here.

Miami Dolphins

Win total: 9

Pick: Over (-110)

The Dolphins have added some serious firepower on offense this offseason, highlighted by All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and look poised to be a playoff contender. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the wild card, but if he can become a top-15 quarterback in his third season, there are enough weapons around him for Miami to make a solid jump. Don’t be surprised if this squad reaches double-digit wins in coach Mike McDaniel’s first season.

New York Jets

Win total: 5.5

Pick: Under (-115)

The Jets have built up their offensive line in free agency and are trying to find some more help at wide receiver to aid the development of quarterback Zach Wilson. However, the No. 2 overall pick from a season ago showed precious little ability to be a capable signal-caller in the NFL. It would take a massive reversal for Wilson to become even league average, and that’s a tall order. It is likely going to be another year of struggle for the Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs

Win total: 11

Pick: Over (+125)

The Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill and are in the best division in the NFL, which has led to some pessimism about their ability to surpass 11 wins. The schedule is undoubtedly a gauntlet, but we are still talking about Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback in the NFL. The Chiefs have a good offensive line and Mahomes has the ability to elevate the production of the players around him. Kansas City should still win the AFC West and surpass 11 wins.

Los Angeles Chargers

Win total: 10

Pick: Over (-120)

The Chargers are loading up to make a run at Kansas City, and even though I still think the Chiefs are the best team in the division, Los Angeles is right there. Justin Herbert is a star quarterback, and the defense has added J.C. Jackson and Khalil Mack to go along with Derwin James and Joey Bosa. Coach Brandon Staley rode a group of superstars to the top-rated defense in the league with the Rams, and after the Chargers struggled on that side of the ball in his 2021 debut, look for marked improvement this season.

Las Vegas Raiders

Win total: 8.5

Pick: Under (-110)

This is really no fault of the Raiders, who added star wide receiver Davante Adams and Pro Bowl edge rusher Chandler Jones this offseason. However, Derek Carr is not on the same level as Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, which will make all six divisional games an uphill battle. The Raiders are a good team in a brutal division, and the ultra-tough schedule makes the under the better play.

Denver Broncos

Win total: 10

Pick: Over (-125)

The Russell Wilson effect should vault Denver to a serious contender in 2022. The Seahawks did not have a good team around him in recent years, and yet, Wilson would consistently get the group to double-digit victories. Like everyone else in the division, the Broncos have a tough schedule, but there was already major talent on this roster, and the addition of Wilson should put Denver over the top. A push could happen, but there is 11- or 12-win upside for this team if everything goes well.

Tennessee Titans

Win total: 9.5

Pick: Under (-110)

The Titans were a bit of a paper tiger all year and it showed in the playoffs when they lost at home to the Bengals. Tennessee has outperformed projections consistently of late but regression could be coming. The division is an easy one but the Titans are playing a first-place schedule and have myriad road games that will be tough. Tennessee could underperform expectations this season, making the under the correct pick.

Indianapolis Colts

Win total: 9.5

Pick: Over (-110)

The Colts were a solid team a year ago and have added quarterback Matt Ryan to the fold. While he isn’t the same player as a few years ago, it’s still an upgrade over Carson Wentz. Indianapolis has an easier schedule than Tennessee and should be able to take advantage of that by finishing with 10 or more wins this season. The Colts are the team to beat in the AFC South.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Win total: 6.5

Pick: Over (+100)

The Jaguars over-spent in free agency, but regardless, the roster is in much better shape now than it was a year ago. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence struggled as a rookie, but it’s important to remember how ballyhooed of a choice he was in the draft. Plenty of young signal-callers find their footing in Year 2, and Lawrence should be able to do so under the guidance of Doug Pederson. Jacksonville won’t pull a Bengals and make a Super Bowl run, but don’t be surprised if it is much more competitive in 2022 and gets to seven wins.

Houston Texans

Win total: 4.5

Pick: Under (-115)

Unlike the Jaguars, Houston has no real long-term candidate at quarterback, even though Davis Mills did show a few good things as a rookie. The Texans might be the least talented team in the NFL for the second consecutive year and the losses will be coming early and often. Even though this win total is low, the under is the easy call.

Baltimore Ravens

Win total: 9.5

Pick: Over (-125)

This is my favorite pick in the AFC. The Ravens are unquestionably in a tough division alongside the Browns, Bengals and Steelers. However, Baltimore has a star quarterback, a great defense and one of the best coaches in the league. The Ravens were rocked by injuries last season, but if they are healthy, this is a team that should cruise to double-digit wins in 2022. Even at -125 odds, it’s an easy call.

Cincinnati Bengals

Win total: 10

Pick: Under (-130)

The Bengals went on a fantastic run to the Super Bowl, and have now fortified the offensive line to give quarterback Joe Burrow more protection. With that being said, there could be some regression in the passing game after Burrow managed to connect with his receivers on so many big plays in 2021. Cincinnati is a really solid team, but the schedule is tough. A 10-win total sounds right, but a 9-8 record is more likely than this group getting to 11-6.

Pittsburgh Steelers 

Win total: 7.5

Pick: Under (+100)

The Steelers were able to win nine games a year ago with Ben Roethlisberger under center, but Mitchell Trubisky is going to similarly hold the group back. Pittsburgh was lucky a year ago, as it ended the season with a negative-55 point-differential. The defense is very good, but the passing game is what matters in the NFL. The Steelers won’t be able to survive another year without it. These are nice odds for a team that could really disappoint in 2022.