2022 NFL Betting Odds, Prediction: Which State Will Win Super Bowl LVII?

The Super Bowl odds have been out for awhile, and we know the basic list of contenders.

The Buffalo Bills are the team to beat, followed by the Buccaneers, Chiefs, Packers, Rams and Chargers.

But that’s a tired way of choosing the Super Bowl champion. Instead, why not group the candidates by state and pick the winner? DraftKings has such a wager available, so let’s dive in.

Here are the eight options, with my analysis on whether each is a good wager. Odds as of June 29.

Maryland (+2000)

Teams: Baltimore Ravens; Washington Commanders

The Ravens were hammered by injuries last season and lost six straight down the stretch to miss the playoffs. Even though quarterback Lamar Jackson was among those injured, it’s a misnomer to believe that mobile signal-callers get hurt more than pocket passers.

Jackson doesn’t have a higher-than-normal injury risk, and should be better than he was in 2021 even despite the loss of standout receiver Hollywood Brown. The secondary is elite, so Baltimore should be among the AFC contenders.

Lamar Jackson pic.twitter.com/srKHuWxFPx

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 27, 2022

That’s all well and good, but you can wager on the Ravens to win the Super Bowl at +2200. These odds are slightly lower because of the presence of the Commanders. 

Does anyone really want to hitch their wagon to quarterback Carson Wentz and a team that always seems to be teetering on the verge of dysfunction? I didn’t think so. Just bet on the Ravens if you like them, not the state of Maryland.

Bet value: Low

Pennsylvania (+2000)

Teams: Philadelphia Eagles; Pittsburgh Steelers

The Eagles are a pretty intriguing team. They made the playoffs last season and unquestionably improved this offseason, adding wide receiver A.J. Brown, edge rusher Haason Reddick and others. Jalen Hurts is still a pretty big wild card at quarterback, but Philly plays in an easy division and could surprise.

The Eagles’ championship odds sit at +2500, so do the Steelers make this wager worth it? Pittsburgh somehow made the playoffs last year with the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback but are +9000 longshots to win this season’s Super Bowl.

The defense should still be solid, but the quarterback is either going to be Mitchell Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett. Pittsburgh plays in a tough division but at least the defense is elite. Football is notorious for its parity, and it’s not out of the question that the Steelers dominate enough defensively to make a Cinderella run to the postseason, in which case you can hedge.

Pittsburgh is just plucky enough for Pennsylvania to hold mild intrigue as a longshot Super Bowl champion.

Bet value: Medium

Texas (+1400)

Teams: Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans

Uhh, did the Titans move back to Houston when I wasn’t looking? Dallas has +1800 odds to win the Super Bowl and the Texans might be the worst team in the league. It would be a grave error to choose these odds over just betting on Dallas outright.

There is a sucker born every minute, and anyone who chooses Texas is costing themselves money if the Cowboys win the Super Bowl.

Bet value: Nonexistent

Ohio (+800)

Teams: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns

OK, we are back on track, as this one is interesting. The Bengals made it to last year’s Super Bowl and then beefed up their biggest weakness last season, the offensive line, which should make life easier for star quarterback Joe Burrow. 

The wide receiving core may be the best in the NFL, and a team with an elite passing attack is always scary. The division is tough, and a first-place schedule means plenty of other formidable opponents, but the Bengals have Super Bowl upside.

Pretty mind-blowing that Joe Burrow didn't make the Pro Bowl last season. Outplayed Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) June 28, 2022

The Browns are a bigger wild card. Deshaun Watson’s suspension could be coming any day now, and there is speculation that it could last all season. If that’s the case, Cleveland is not expected to be a contender. If it’s half the season, the Browns could be in the mix when he returns.

Bet value: Medium

Florida (+650)

Teams: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars

This one really stands out. The Bucs have +700 odds to win the Super Bowl, so anyone interested in placing that bet should also consider the state of Florida with just a slight cost to add the Dolphins and Jags. Tampa Bay is obviously the team that will be doing the heavy lifting, as Tom Brady and Co. are once again expected to be elite.

However, the Dolphins have an interesting squad after revamping the offense this offseason. That included a trade for wideout Tyreek Hill and the free agent signing of tackle Terron Armstead, as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has weapons all around him. It would be a big leap for Miami to become a contender, but it’s not completely unrealistic.

And even though the Jaguars were a certifiable dumpster fire last season, they can look to the Bengals for inspiration. Trevor Lawrence was the No. 1 overall pick the season after Joe Burrow and would love to make a similar Year 2 leap. Jacksonville doesn’t have the same amount of talent as Cincinnati, but it did add several solid players in free agency. It’s enough to dream on.

Bet Value: High

New Jersey/New York (+550)

Teams: Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, New York Giants

This is a similar situation, but I have zero faith in the teams beyond Buffalo. The Bills’ Super Bowl odds are listed at +600, but just give me those. 

The New York Jets added a lot of young pieces, but even if they show flashes, it’s going to be a few years before contention is a true possibility. And the fact is that quarterback Zach Wilson was not the same level of prospect as Trevor Lawrence coming out of the draft and then had a wretched rookie season.

The New York Giants might be a little better and have a new coach in Brian Daboll, but Daniel Jones at quarterback is a red flag. He’s a backup masquerading as a starter. The Bills are the only team in New York who will even sniff the playoffs in 2022.

Bet value: Low

California (+350)

Teams: Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco 49ers

This is what I’m talking about. Three legitimate Super Bowl contenders all from the same state. This is my favorite wager of the bunch because I’m high on all of the teams from California.

The Los Angeles Chargers loaded up this offseason and have a star quarterback in Justin Herbert. The Los Angeles Rams just proved last year that they could win the title and bring back the core of that team. The San Francisco 49ers are breaking in a new quarterback, but a wildly talented one in Trey Lance.

There are hurdles, obviously, but these are some enticing odds. Individually, the Rams are +1100, the Chargers +1400 and the 49ers +1600 to win it all. It would not surprise me if one of them hoist the Lombardi Trophy at State Farm Stadium next year.

Bet value: High

Any other state (+135)

Teams: Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons.

As you can see, that’s a lot of candidates to win the Super Bowl, but I worry that it’s quantity over quality. It’s very easy to see a path to the Super Bowl for the Chiefs, Packers and Broncos.

But teams like the Colts, Titans, Cardinals, Raiders, Patriots, Vikings and Saints would need a lot of fortuitous things to happen in order to win the title. Arizona is the only team among them with an elite quarterback, but it has roster deficiencies elsewhere. The other teams have solid rosters but can’t lean on a superstar signal-caller. 

And then the Bears, Lions, Panthers, Seahawks and Falcons have no shot at winning the championship. So, sure, this bet includes some favorites and some longshots that hold intrigue, but at +135 the value is just not there.

Bet value: Low