2022 NBA Futures Betting: Devin Booker Is Worth a Longshot MVP Wager

Devin Booker stole the show on Thursday night, scoring 49 points and tallying 10 assists in a 140-130 win over the Nuggets.

Nets guard Kyrie Irving jumped on Twitter afterward to call him the NBA MVP, and when asked directly after the game if he should be in that conversation, the Suns’ star guard was direct.

“Yeah,” Booker said.

The regular season has only a few weeks left, and the MVP debate has thus far centered on three players: Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Embiid is the favorite at -140 odds over at BetMGM, followed by Jokic at +135 and Giannis Antetokounmpo at +1000. Booker isn’t even fourth on the list, as his +5000 odds sit behind Luka Doncic and Ja Morant.

But he is trending in the right direction, and as the groundswell of support for his candidacy grows, it’s not out of the question that Booker combines dominant play and buzz down the stretch to become a legitimate factor.

Here is a look at the reasons why Booker may (or may not) win the 2021-22 NBA MVP.

The Case For Devin Booker As MVP

Booker is now averaging 26.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1.2 steals per game. He has a true shooting percentage of 57.3 and is the most dangerous player on a team that is nine full games better than anyone else in the NBA.

As former Pistons point guard Isiah Thomas recently pointed out, the best player on the best team has almost always been in the MVP discussion, but that hasn’t been the case with Booker.

Five of the last 7 MVPs have been the leading scorer from the team with the best record.

This season that player is Devin Booker. pic.twitter.com/W0HDmTjGI9

— StatMuse (@statmuse) March 25, 2022

In addition to the numbers, Booker’s mere presence makes life easier on the players around him. Guys like Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder and Cam Johnson are excellent in their roles, but they would not be as effective offensively without Booker because he draws so much attention.

It is similar to the effect Allen Iverson and Kobe Bryant had on games. The advanced statistical numbers may not love high-volume, lower-efficiency players, but they are more valuable than the numbers may suggest.

Offenses grind to a halt without a go-to guy in the halfcourt, and oftentimes they are tasked with trying to get a bucket in isolation when the shot clock is ticking down.

If players like Iverson, Bryant and Booker weren’t as valuable as big men, it would show in their team’s records, but all have been the best player on some dominant squads.

MVP: @DevinBook
👑👑👑

— A11Even (@KyrieIrving) March 25, 2022

There is always the lingering question of whether Booker is even the best player on his own team, but that one deserves to be put to bed. Yes, the Suns took off when Chris Paul arrived, but they were also trending in that direction following an impressive bubble stint in 2020.

Paul is still one of the league’s best point guards, but he is comfortably behind Booker when it comes to the most integral player for Phoenix. Paul returned to the court on Thursday, but despite missing a significant stretch due to injury, the Suns did not miss a beat, and Booker was the main reason for that. 

The Suns have incredible depth, but it’s still a star-driven league, and Phoenix continued to excel by leaning on its star shooting guard.

The Case Against Devin Booker As MVP

Booker has great numbers this season, but so do Embiid, Jokic and Antetokounmpo. 

Here is a quick look at how each have performed on the year, as they have all kept their teams in contention despite some injuries or other issues around them.

• Embiid: 29.8 points, 11.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.4 blocks, 1.1 steals, 60.9 TS%
• Jokic: 26.2 points, 13.5 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks, 65.6 TS%
• Antetokounmpo: 29.7 points, 11.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.4 blocks, 1.1 steals, 63.1 TS%

The advanced stats show an even bigger gulf between Booker and the three projected MVP finalists.

Jokic is No. 1 in the NBA in win shares per 48 minutes (.295) and No. 1 in Value Over Replacement Player (8.8).

Antetokounmpo is No. 2 in win shares per 48 (.289) and No. 2 in VORP (6.6). Embiid is No. 5 in win shares per 48 (.230) and No. 3 in VORP (5.7).

Booker doesn’t come close. He is No. 34 in win shares per 48 (.157), which is fourth on his own team behind Paul, Deandre Ayton and Johnson. His VORP of 3.3 is No. 16, a solid placement but far from MVP-level production.

I think it’s okay to say Devin Booker has

1) been really good — pull-up is better, decision making is better/quicker, more solid defensively — on the best team in the league but

2) not been as good as Jokic/Embiid/Giannis in whatever order. https://t.co/FN8FY7Npvt

— Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) March 24, 2022

And then there is the overall strength of the Suns. They are so dominant because of their balance, as different players have shown the capacity to step up every night. Booker leads the charge, but even without him, Phoenix would be a very good team, which brings into question his overall value. 

Conclusion

There is little question that Embiid, Jokic and Antetokounmpo have put together fine seasons. In the end, one of the three is very likely to win the MVP.

But the length of the odds must be considered. Booker is a longshot, which means a small wager could end up paying off big-time if he excels the rest of the way and passes the Big Three.

Booker is riding a wave of momentum and the conversation will only get louder if he can duplicate nights like Thursday.

The advanced stats paint a discouraging picture, but it would also be wise of the MVP voters not to rely on them too much. While VORP, win shares, PER and the like can be useful tools, they don’t tell the whole story.

Thirteen of the top 17 players in win shares per 48 are centers, and PER is similarly weighted unfairly toward the frontcourt players. If teams could legitimately ride big men to championships, then every GM in the league would fight to add those players over guards.

The truth is that scoring guards have much more worth than depicted by some of these metrics, and it is evident by the team success that results.

Booker is the engine that makes Phoenix go, and it’s clearly visible on a nightly basis. The Suns could become the first team since the 1991-92 Chicago Bulls to finish nine games ahead of the entire rest of the league in the standings.

Their best player is absolutely worth a gamble to capture the NBA’s most prestigious hardware.

Pick: Devin Booker to win MVP at +5000 odds