I was so bad predicting prop bets on Sunday that it might behoove you to pick the opposite of the below recommendations.
However, I personally feel like Monday Night Football will be an absolute slog, and if that is correct, it will be the start of my redemption arc.
Here are my three favorite prop bets for the clash between the Saints and the Buccaneers:
Tom Brady under 269.5 passing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Brady has a yards-per-attempt number of 6.5 this season, which is the lowest figure for him in 20 years. He is throwing the ball a bunch and is still averaging 277 passing yards per game this season, but I’m not very confident that he slings it around the yard in this one.
Both of these defenses are talented, and I foresee this being a low-scoring affair.
While Brady still has good wide receivers to throw to and Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore is expected to sit, the offensive line is missing multiple key pieces, which could keep him from taking a lot of downfield shots.
Brady usually doesn’t have terrible games, but he’s also failing to put up huge numbers this season, and I believe that trend will continue here. Brady won’t get to 270 passing yards against the Saints.
Tom Brady under 39.5 pass attempts (-120 at BetMGM)
Coinciding with the passing yards prop is the number of attempts. Brady is averaging 42.7 pass attempts per game this season, which is a ton. He rarely throws interceptions or gets sacked so there is logic behind the volume, but Tampa Bay’s offense has not been very potent this season.
Running back Rachaad White has given the Bucs a nice spark and I can’t help but wonder if the Buccaneers will want to get both him and Leonard Fournette involved against a New Orleans defense that has been better against the pass than the run this year.
And then there is the game script. The Saints are 3.5-point underdogs and I believe that will hold true late in the contest. Brady won’t have to throw a bunch in the fourth quarter, which will help the under hit on this prop.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara under 12.5 rushing attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
There are a lot of mouths to feed in the New Orleans backfield. Kamara is the most talented runner, but Taysom Hill and Mark Ingram are both going to siphon away carries. Additionally, the offense has been so bad recently that the Saints are regularly finishing in the 50s in number of offensive snaps, which makes it tough to rack up the rushing attempts.
The Buccaneers are traditionally very hard to run against and the Saints may choose to do things like bubble screens or dumpoffs to Kamara rather than run straight into the defensive line.
Kamara is a dynamic player but he’s best in space, and I think New Orleans will aim to get him the ball in creative ways. As mentioned earlier, I also believes the Buccaneers will be winning this game in the fourth quarter, which will put the game on the arm of Andy Dalton and not the legs of Kamara.
This week’s prop bets record: 1-5
Overall: 65-60
