With the first wild card series of the new playoff format behind us, we get to find out beginning today the question that was on the mind of the manager piloting a sub-.500 team down the stretch — and just about everyone else paying attention to the revamped baseball postseason.
“Do you really want a week off after the season?” this manager said during the final days of the regular season.
Will some or all of the wild card series-winning Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Guardians, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres ride their momentum to berths in their respective League Championship Series? Or will the byes benefit the top four seeds — the Houston Astros and New York Yankees in the American League and the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves in the National League?
It’s going to be fascinating to see how this plays out over the next five days and the data it provides. Also very interesting in that three of the Division Series are duels between division opponents — only the second time since 1995 there have been three battles between division opponents in the Division Series or League Championship Series.
The team that won the regular season series against its division foe is 9-8 in playoff rematches. (The 2011 St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers split the season series before the Cardinals won a Division Series, as did the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles prior to the Yankees winning a Division Series in 2012)
Here’s our look at each of the Division Series, with a prediction and a fun prop bet included. We were 2-2 in our wild card series picks, sweeping the AL and getting swept in the NL. Sorry again, Mets and Cardinals.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
No. 1 Houston Astros (106-56) vs. No. 5 Seattle Mariners (90-72)
Regular season series: Astros 12-7
Series odds: Astros -220, Mariners +185
Pennant odds: Astros +145, Mariners +500
World Series odds: Astros +360, Mariners +1400
It won’t take long to find out if it’s hard for the regular season winner to take the rematch and/or if the momentum from already winning a playoff round can carry the underdog! The Mariners, who ended the longest playoff drought in the four major American pro sports by clinching a playoff berth on Cal Raleigh’s walk-off homer, swept the Toronto Blue Jays in the wild card round in similarly dramatic fashion by overcoming a seven-run deficit in their 10-9 Game 2 win.
The sweep helps the Mariners align their pitching, with No. 3 starter Logan Gilbert going in today’s ALDS opener followed by top starters Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray. That’s a pretty good counter to the Astros’ trio of likely Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander followed by Lance McCullers Jr. and Framber Valdez. But the fact Cristian Javier — who started a combined no-hitter this season and posted a 2.54 ERA in 148 2/3 innings — isn’t even in the rotation provides another example of how deep the Astros are and how their bullpen, which finished with an ERA half a run lower than the Mariners’ relievers, will be even lengthier in the playoffs. Houston also finished with a .743 OPS, well ahead of Seattle’s .705. The Mariners are a fun story and are surely the sentimental favorites against the almost universally despised Astros. But the run ends here.
PREDICTION: Astros in 4
ONE FUN PROP: Julio Rodriguez to record a hit in each game of series (Yes +550)
No. 2 New York Yankees (99-63) vs. No. 3 Cleveland Guardians (92-70)
Regular season series: Yankees 5-1
Series odds: Yankees -210, Guardians +175
Pennant odds: Yankees +180, Guardians +600
World Series odds: Yankees +475, Guardians +1900
It’s a mild surprise the Yankees are the second-smallest favorite in the Division Series round given their resounding win in the admittedly small sample size of the regular season series and the far larger power gap between the teams. Homers win in the modern game and the Yankees led the majors with 254 round-trippers while the Guardians finished next-to-last with 127 homers — exactly half as many as the Yankees and only a little more than twice as many as Aaron Judge had by himself. And the Guardians, who won the lone division in baseball with only one playoff team, scored just three runs in sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays in a wild card series.
Cole was a touch on the terse side today – very much in game mode. pic.twitter.com/Jv0xAK9auR
— Laura Albanese (@AlbaneseLaura) October 10, 2022
But maybe the books are feeling the same general sense of unease around the Yankees as the rest of us. DJ LeMahieu, a two-time batting champion and terrific sparkplug when healthy, didn’t make the roster due to a broken foot. Closer Aroldis Chapman is done in New York after not showing up to a workout, but it’s not like his presence would have aided a bullpen headed for the dreaded closer-by-committee, especially with late-season revelation Scott Effross headed for Tommy John surgery. Gerrit Cole’s weird press conference Monday underlined the pressure on the Yankees, who haven’t won a World Series since 2009, which is approximately four billion years in Yankees fan years. This could end with Cole pulling a Joe Musgrove tonight — or getting torpedoed as the Guardians steal a win with their No. 3 starter, Cal Quantrill. Sometimes the #NARRATIVE wins out. Go with the no-pressure Guardians and the best manager in the game.
PREDICTION: Guardians in 5
ONE FUN PROP: Giancarlo Stanton to record most homers in series (+650)
NATIONAL LEAGUE
No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers (111-51) vs. No. 4 San Diego Padres (89-73)
Regular season series: Dodgers 14-5
Series odds: Dodgers -215, Padres +175
Pennant odds: Dodgers +145, Padres +475
World Series odds: Dodgers +300, Padres +1100
Speaking of no pressure vs. pressure…the Padres, in perpetual all-or-nothing mode with nothing to show for it, will be feeling pretty loose (and possibly still a bit hungover) following their decisive Game 3 win over the Mets and subsequent raucous celebration in New York. It’s not difficult to envision a Cinderella charge through the baseball playoffs for the Padres nor the idea of the rest of their vaunted hitters waking up against the Dodgers after the bottom of their lineup — No. 8 and No. 9 hitters Trent Grisham and Austin Nola went a combined 8-for-17 with five RBIs while everyone else went 16-for-83 (.192) — did the heavy lifting against the Mets.
While the Yankees are preparing for the postseason, the Padres are headed to LA after beating the Mets. Here's what unfolded during the postgame scene for the Padres after they beat the Mets in my latest for @ForbesSports: https://t.co/QIjbiJwJ6i
— larryfleisher (@larryfleisher) October 10, 2022
While San Diego shook off the nerves in the wild card series, the pressure continued to build on the Dodgers, who had another historic regular season but will have their legacy determined over the randomness of the next four weeks. Fortunately, the perennial division champions have the clear pitching edge in Game 1, where former 20-game winner and 2022 NL ERA champion Julio Urias goes against injury-prone Mike Clevinger, who posted a 4.33 ERA this season, wasn’t on the Division Series roster due to illness and threw as many as six innings just seven times in 23 starts, including three times in his final 12 starts. While their closing situation is messy, the Dodgers will be well-positioned to utilize the rest of their bullpen during a fairly uneventful series win.
PREDICTION: Dodgers in 4
ONE FUN PROP: Because somehow Trent Grisham isn’t listed…Freddie Freeman to record most hits in series (+600)
No. 2 Atlanta Braves (101-61) vs. No. 6 Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)
Regular season series: Braves 11-8
Series odds: Braves -185, Phillies +155
Pennant odds: Braves +205, Phillies +500
World Series odds: Braves +450, Phillies +1200
The last time a 100-win Braves team faced a upstart Phillies squad in the playoffs, Meat Loaf was mounting the most stunning musical comeback of all-time as he raced up the charts with “I Would Do Anything For Love (But I Won’t Do That)” and gas was under a buck a gallon. tl;dr 1993 and the Phillies’ upset of the Braves in the final pre-wild card era NLCS was a long time ago!
After outpacing the Phillies by 14 games in the NL East race, the Braves might be an even bigger favorite this time around. But the Phillies, who have the worst record of any playoff team before riding a stunning ninth-inning comeback in the opener of their wild card series to a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals, are going to be quite the test study for the idea of an underdog riding the momentum generated over the short sample size of the playoffs.
The Phillies don’t have much starting pitching depth and still have a defense that only a beer leaguer could love, but sweeping the Cardinals will allow them to utilize Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the first three games against the Braves. And the Phillies rank sixth in homers, four spots behind the Braves, so they can engage in a home run derby if necessary.
Still, it’s hard not to like the championship-tested Braves here. Not only can they match the Phillies in the power department, but no team is better positioned to start a playoff series than the Braves, who have Max Fried and 20-game winner Kyle Wright pitching in the first two games with rookie phenom Spencer Strider and/or postseason ace Charlie Morton looming in Games 3 and/or 4. Atlanta’s bullpen has also been dominant since Raisel Iglesias began locking down the seventh and eighth innings while Phillies’ set-up man David Robertson is out for the series with a calf injury suffered while celebrating a Bryce Harper homer. You can crank all the Meat Loaf you want but the Braves’ championship defense continues.
PREDICTION: Braves in 4
ONE FUN PROP: Matt Olson to record most RBIs in series (+750)
