For the second straight winter, the baseball free agent market is headlined by a litany of star shortstops likely to earn nine-figure contracts.
But while Carlos Correa is headlining the group for a second straight season, the most interesting free agency case among shortstops might be that of Trea Turner, whose resume thus far arguably ranks him behind Correa and Xander Bogaerts and ahead of Dansby Swanson among the four stars expected to dominate the chatter during next week’s winter meetings.
While Turner is 29 and has collected 29.7 WAR per Baseball-Reference — Correa has generated 39.5 WAR at age 28 while Bogaerts has produced 34.9 WAR at age 30 — he is the type of player who could thrive with next year’s rules changes.
The ban on shifts is expected to dramatically increase the number of singles and reverse the trend of sinking batting averages. Turner led the NL each of the last two seasons with 130 singles apiece and is a former batting champion who ended last season with a .302 career average.
In addition, pitchers will be allowed just two “disengagements” — i.e. stepping off the mound or delivering a pickoff throw — per at-bat. Turner is a two-time NL stolen base champion whose 230 career thefts are by far the most among players younger than 30.
So the Turner we’ve seen thus far may not be the version we see going forward. And to add even more intrigue to the proceedings, Turner is rumored to be interested in signing with an east coast team to be closer to his family, which opens up the possibility he’ll take less money instead of returning to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Here are the odds of the nine likeliest contenders, from DraftKings as of Nov. 29:
- Phillies +220
- Dodgers +450
- Yankees +500
- Cardinals +600
- Cubs +700
- Braves +700
- Red Sox +850
- Giants +1100
- Orioles +1300
The Phillies, all-in after their surprise run to the World Series, make sense as a favorite, though general manager Dave Dombrowski — who was the GM of the World Series-winning Boston Red Sox in 2018 — could choose to sign Bogaerts, who has spent his entire career thus far with the Red Sox.
The Dodgers are certainly going to make a sizable offer to Turner, one that could easily include perks such as plenty of tickets for family and friends that’ll make it easier to handle being a country away from Turner’s loved ones.
The Yankees have a pair of seemingly can’t-miss shortstop prospects — Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza — knocking on the door of the big leagues. But they also have long-term openings at second base and third base that could be filled by Volpe and Peraza and are in desperate need to make a splash after their seemingly magical season spiraled out of control before ending with a sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros. Turner could be a more palatable option at shortstop than Correa, who will be forever linked to the cheating scandal that overshadowed the Astros’ run to the 2017 World Series, which included a seven-game win over the Yankees in the AL Championship Series.
The Cubs, who vaporized all that goodwill from the 2016 championship in record time, have an even more urgent need to prove they’re trying and Chicago is a solid compromise if Turner’s looking to get closer to the east coast.
Signing Turner wouldn’t fit the M.O. of the Cardinals, who tend to acquire their superstars via trade (it’s still hard to believe they parted with so little to get future Hall of Famers Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado from the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies). Ditto for the Braves, who could either simply retain Swanson or turn their focus to Jacob deGrom if Swanson heads elsewhere.
On the other hand, letting go of Bogaerts — a homegrown icon who already ranks 21st among Red Sox players in all-time WAR — and signing Turner would be a very Red Sox thing to do by Boston, which managed to bungle what should have been easy decisions to retain Jon Lester and Mookie Betts for the entirety of their potential Hall of Fame careers.
The Giants don’t seem a likely landing spot for Turner, especially if he is looking to go east and doesn’t want to re-sign with the Dodgers. But the possibility of the Giants losing the Aaron Judge sweepstakes and making Turner an offer he can’t refuse in an attempt to close the gap on the Dodgers in the NL West can’t be ruled out.
It’s sort of odd seeing the Orioles on this list after their extended period of losing and frugality. But winning 83 games last year — 31 more than in 2021 — indicated the Orioles are on the cusp of arriving as a legitimate contender, and their plethora of first- and second-year talent leaves room in the budget for a splashy signing that further signifies their readiness to pursue a pennant.
