Perhaps the executive from a non-contender was speaking in hyperbolic fashion in early September because he knew there was no chance his team would sign Jacob deGrom regardless of the price.
But this executive responding to one of the most posed queries of the 2022 baseball season — how much money is the longtime New York Mets ace going to get paid per year starting in 2023? — by suggesting deGrom might get $60 million upon hitting free agency this winter sounded both completely insane and legitimately possible.
A $60 million deal or even a $50 million deal is probably out of the question after deGrom looked almost human down the stretch, when he posted a 6.00 ERA over his final four regular season starts before grinding out a win over the San Diego Padres in Game 2 of an NL wild card series to briefly keep the Mets’ season afloat.
But deGrom — the best baseball pitcher on this or any other planet whenever he’s been on the mound the last five seasons — is going to get paid after deciding to opt out of the final season of the five-year deal he signed just before Opening Day in 2019. Yet how much and by who remain the most intriguing questions of the off-season almost a month after the final out of the World Series.
Even if he’s not getting $60 million a year, deGrom is sure to approach or nudge past former and maybe future teammate Max Scherzer’s record average annual value of $43.3 million. But as is the case with fellow New York free agent Aaron Judge, there’s only a handful of teams that are going to be in this race.
Here are the odds of the six likeliest contenders, in our mind, from DraftKings as of Nov. 29:
- Mets -130
- Braves +330
- Yankees +550
- Dodgers +800
- Rangers +1500
- Giants +2200
The deGrom derby is doubly complicated because of his recent injury history. DeGrom was obviously terrific in winning back-to-back Cy Youngs in 2018 and 2019 (21-17 with a 2.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 524/90 over 421 innings) but has been even more dominant over the last three seasons, a span in which he’s gone 16-8 with a 2.05 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 352/37.
The wrinkle, of course, is deGrom has thrown just 224 1/3 innings since 2020 due to the pandemic and a series of injuries that cost him the second half of the 2021 season and the first four months of the 2022 campaign. At age 34, he probably can’t be counted on to throw 200 innings or make 30 starts in a season anymore, and it’s hard to envision anyone offering a deal of longer than three years.
The Mets are an understandable favorite, given they are the only team for whom deGrom has played and proved this season they can reach the playoffs without deGrom serving as a workhorse. And with aggressive owner Steve Cohen wanting to win a title in his first five seasons (he’s two years in), the Mets will be more comfortable spending big over the short-term to try and win the franchise’s first championship since 1986.
But deGrom, a lifelong resident of Florida, has never seemed fully comfortable in New York, opening up the possibility his hometown (sort of) Atlanta Braves swoop in and tilt the NL East further in their favor. It seems unlikely the Braves will pay $45 million for deGrom, but the increasingly likely departure of star shortstop Dansby Swanson could open up enough money in the budget for Atlanta to come close enough to woo him back south.
Outside of signing Gerrit Cole to a then-record deal following the 2019 season, the Yankees haven’t waded into the deeper waters of free agency since Hal Steinbrenner took the reins from his father. Given their focus on re-signing Judge, the cordial relationship between Cohen and Steinbrenner and deGrom’s possibly lukewarm feelings for the Big Apple, a crosstown move seems unlikely.
The biggest threat outside the east coast for deGrom’s services is probably the Dodgers, who showed they have no problems setting the market for short-term, high-AAV deals for ace pitchers with their it-was-a-bad-idea-in-real-time pursuit of Trevor Bauer. And their organizational pipeline and ability to turn water into wine (best of luck to Tyler Anderson trying to emulate his 2022 with the Angels) provides them plenty of protection if deGrom is sidelined for extended periods of time.
With their willingness to spend big, the Rangers — who signed Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to deals worth a combined $500 million last winter — looked like the likeliest team to overwhelm deGrom with a can’t-resist offer. But the Rangers have endured six straight losing seasons and don’t seem one potentially part-time ace away from contending, even with their redone keystone combination and the hiring of Hall of Fame-bound manager Bruce Bochy.
The Giants can offer deGrom the same things they can offer Judge — lots of money without the glare of the Big Apple spotlight — and they won 107 games in 2021 with just two starters qualifying for the ERA title, so they’re well-versed in successfully juggling their rotation. Judge is clearly the organization’s number one target, but San Francisco will be worth keeping an eye on as a darkhorse candidate for deGrom if the Yankees slugger signs elsewhere.
