2022 MLB Futures Betting: Which State Will Win the World Series?

With the Major League Baseball postseason expanded to 12 teams — the three division winners and three wild cards per league each qualify — trying to identify a World Series favorite will be tougher than ever this year.

But DraftKings is offering an interesting wrinkle by posting odds for the World Series-winning state. Wagering on the state that will be the home of the eventual champion is a potential way to assure yourself a profit come late October and/or to hedge your bets in case an underdog emerges — either from a state with multiple teams or from a one-team locale that falls into the “any other state” field.

Here is a look at four states plus “any other state” with intriguing World Series-winning odds, along with the World Series-winning odds of each team in the state, as well as a handful of multi-team states where it’d almost certainly be more lucrative just to bet on the municipality’s best team. All odds as of July 29.

New York (+220)

Teams: Yankees +390; Mets +650

The Mets’ two-game sweep of the Yankees this week was fantastic and highly entertaining Big Apple baseball theatre, even if it underlined the flaws — late-inning left-handed relief for the Mets, situational hitting for the all-or-nothing Yankees — that might prevent a rematch in October. But the odds-makers are still bullish on a New York team emerging as the World Series winner. If you’re a fan of one of the teams and/or the narrative, pairing a $10 bet on a Subway Series rematch parlay — Yankees to win the American League at +180 and the Mets to win the National League at +300 — plus a $10 wager on New York winning the World Series would net $134.

California (+260)

Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers +350; San Diego Padres +2000; San Francisco Giants +7000; Los Angeles Angels +60000; Oakland Athletics +200000.

It’s not quite the Dodgers or bust for the Golden State, but with the Athletics tanking, the Angels in how-can-this-be-happening-again freefall and the Giants setting land speed records for reverting to the mean, the hot-and-cold Padres are the only hope for a champion outside of Los Angeles. The Padres entered today just 2 1/2 games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies, who are tied for the third and final wild card berth. But it’s not inconceivable the Padres — who have an MVP candidate in Manny Machado, are expected to get Fernando Tatis Jr. back before the end of the summer and are reportedly all-in on Juan Soto — become the team that gets hot at the right time in October. A Padres/California parlay would net $232.

Any other state (+275)

Teams: Atlanta Braves +850; Toronto Blue Jays +1300; Milwaukee Brewers +2000; Seattle Mariners +4500; Minnesota Twins +5000; Boston Red Sox +7000; Baltimore Orioles +50000

BOOM BOOM!! pic.twitter.com/kaZl9sDWlH

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 28, 2022

With a handful of contenders here — including the defending World Series champion Braves as well as the Blue Jays, who, obviously, are not in one of the 50 states— the field is a solid low-risk bet. But considering the payout, real Cinderellas like the Mariners or Orioles — the latter of whom would be the greatest worst-to-first success story in baseball history — would yield, you’re probably better off wagering on their actual odds. (We included the Red Sox here because a team winning the World Series roughly three months after losing a game 28-5 would be hilarious) 

Texas (+400)

Teams: Houston Astros +475, Texas Rangers +100000

Maybe it’s because no one really likes them post-2017, but has any perennial championship contender flown under the radar as consistently as the Astros? The defending AL champions went 9-2 against the Yankees and Mets with only a pair of comeback walk-off wins by the Yankees preventing the Astros from a clean sweep of New York. The Astros have the championship mettle, a rotation and lineup headed by future Hall of Famers and a Cooperstown-bound skipper in the dugout searching for his John Elway moment at the end of his career. Pairing the Astros with Texas (the state, not the Rangers — they’re at least a year away) would net a payout of $97.50 with a $10 bet.

Ohio (+9000)

Teams: Cleveland Guardians +9000, Cincinnati Reds +200000

Forget the Reds, who might not contend again until we’re all living on the moon. And the Guardians, who entered today two games out of first place in the AL Central and three games back of the Mariners in the race for the final wild card spot, are a long shot to make the playoffs, never mind win it all. Baseball Reference has their playoff odds at 38.3% and their World Series-winning odds at 0.6%. But Terry Francona has overseen late-season charges before by the 2004 Red Sox and with Cleveland in 2013, 2016 and 2017. No playoff team would have a better, more battle-tested manager in the dugout than the Guardians, who would possess one of the best pitching staffs as well. Wagering $10 apiece on the Guardians and Ohio to win it all would net a neat payout of $1,820.

JUST BET THE BEST TEAMS IN THESE STATES

With the Chicago Cubs (+200000) completing the inexplicable teardown of the 2016 champions, the only hope for Illinois (+2800) this season (and probably well beyond) is the perpetually underachieving Chicago White Sox (+3000), who were perhaps the most overwhelming division favorite in the preseason but need a well-timed hot streak just to get to the playoffs and another one to make a deep run…Resume-wise, the Tampa Bay Rays (+4000) are a solid longshot bet, especially given their odds are longer than the state of Florida (+3000) being the home of the World Series champ even though the Miami Marlins (+40000) are once again heading towards another fire sale. But the Rays are dealing with a spate of injuries and have displayed some of the worst fundamentals in baseball this season, most notably Josh Lowe allowing Trey Mancini to hit an inside-the-park homer off his head Thursday afternoon…The St. Louis Cardinals (+4500) are always going to be in the race. The Kansas City Royals (+200000) are not. Sadly for those of us who remember the unmatched wackiness of the 1985 World Series — nicknamed the “I-70 Showdown Series” or “Show Me Series” — a rematch is nowhere on the horizon. … No one’s had a more rollercoaster season than the Phillies (+4500), who became the first contender in years to fire a manager mid-season, got red-hot under Rob Thomson, lost Bryce Harper for several weeks due to a broken thumb and are still tied for the third wild card despite being swept last weekend by the woebegone Cubs. But if you think the Phillies can win the World Series after all that, just place a bet on them instead of on the state of Pennsylvania (+4000), whose odds are somehow shorter than those of the Phillies despite the Pittsburgh Pirates (+2000000) also being in the state.