2022 MLB Futures Betting: Tampa Bay Rays Southpaw Shane McClanahan the Cy Young Favorite

Shane McClanahan is far from the biggest name in the American League Cy Young race, but he’s the pitcher to beat.

The 25-year-old Tampa Bay Rays left-hander has surpassed the competition and sits with league-best +350 odds to win the prestigious award, according to FanDuel, BetMGM and DraftKings.

McClanahan, who had only one year of MLB starting experience heading into the season, is 7-2 with a 1.87 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP and averages 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings.

Houston’s Justin Verlander, who has more career wins (234) than McClanahan does innings pitched (195.2), has the second-best odds at +400 from each of the sportsbooks.

McClanahan was a first-round pick of the Rays in 2018 and quickly made it into top prospect lists. However, there was some question whether he’d stick in a big league rotation or become an elite bullpen arm, according to Keith Law of The Athletic.

“The Rays have worked him as a starter and he has a decent changeup as a third option, but right-handers see the ball well out of his hand, hitting all seven of the homers he surrendered in 2019, and he might have to move to the bullpen given his arm slot,” Law wrote in 2021.

McClanahan has not only proven he can be a starting pitcher, but is now in the running as the best hurler in the American League. His walk rate and BABIP are expected to increase moving forward, according to Fangraphs’ projection system, and his ERA would likely go up in tandem, but there is little to suggest the hot start is fluky.

McClanahan had +2000 odds to win the Cy Young before the season began, according to FanDuel, but is now the one that others will need to catch.

Here are the odds for the next four top American League Cy Young candidates. Odds via FanDuel on June 13.

RHP Justin Verlander, Astros (+400)

Verlander is 8-2 this season with a 1.94 ERA. He is 39 years old and missed the past season-and-a-half due to Tommy John surgery, but has found the Fountain of Youth in 2022. Fangraphs believes he can continue to produce at this level the rest of the way, which would keep the pressure on McClanahan. If the race is close, Verlander will certainly have a compelling narrative to help his cause.

RHP Alek Manoah, Blue Jays (+850)

Manoah doesn’t have odds quite as favorable as the other two, but his start has been just as impressive. The 24-year-old is 7-1 with a 1.81 ERA in 11 outings. His strikeout numbers aren’t gaudy, and those will need to elevate for him to keep the ERA sparkling, but the track record suggests it should happen. Manoah doesn’t have the same dominant fastball velocity of McClanahan but has still done plenty to keep batters flummoxed this season.

LHP Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees (+1100)

It’s been a breakout season for Cortes, who had a negative WAR for the first three years of his career before showing something last year with New York. He was an extreme longshot to win this award early in the season but is now in the thick of the discussion. It has only been 11 starts and a drop-off would not be a surprise, but Cortes is 5-2 with a 1.96 ERA thus far and will look to keep it rolling the rest of the way.

RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+1200)

Cole was the preseason favorite and is still on the short list of contenders for the American League Cy Young, but his current numbers pale in comparison to the four above him on this list. Cole is 5-1 this season with an ERA of 3.63, as he is allowing 1.48 home runs per nine innings while the others are keeping the ball in the yard. Cole still has a tremendous strikeout-to-walk ratio and his average fastball velocity is better than ever, which could make this a good buy-low opportunity in case he turns it on down the stretch.