Finding value in the odds in the Major League Baseball Most Valuable Player races can be a challenge, because, well, we’re talking about the most valuable players here.
With the AL’s top three favorites featuring defending winner Shohei Ohtani, three-time MVP Mike Trout and 2021 runner-up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the NL’s top three — Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuna Jr. — comprised of players 24 or younger who have combined for five top-5 finishes, it’d be easy to go with the surer things.
But what’s the fun in that — especially in the NL, where Tatis and Acuna are expected to miss considerable time recovering from injuries? Here are six players — three in each league — who could be sneaky MVP picks. All odds from DraftKings as of March 10.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Wander Franco, Rays (+1800): Thanks to service time manipulation, the Rays waited until June 21 to promote Franco, who was the consensus top prospect in the game entering the 2020 and 2021 seasons. At age 20, Franco wasted no time meeting expectations (and convincing the Rays to sign him through 2032, which takes care of that whole will he or won’t he be eligible for arbitration in 2023 thing) by posting an OPS+ of 129, reaching base safely in 43 straight games (tied with Frank Robinson for the longest streak by a player in his age-20 season) and collecting 3.5 in WAR, per Baseball-Reference.
As negotiations resume today in Jupiter to determine when, or maybe if, the 2022 season will start, here’s something positive for #Rays fans to think about:
Wander Franco, who already has 81 big-league hits, turns 21 today.
And he’s signed for the next 11 years.— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) March 1, 2022
Only nine players aged 20 or younger have posted a higher OPS+ in the wild card era, including MVP winners Trout, Alex Rodriguez and Bryce Harper as well as perennial MVP contenders Tatis, Acuna and Soto. This might be the last time this decade Franco’s MVP odds are this long.
Jose Ramirez, Guardians (+2000): Is this the year Ramirez — whose 34.3 WAR, per Baseball-Reference, basically puts him halfway to the Hall of Fame at age-29 — adds to his Cooperstown resume by winning the MVP? Ramirez finished sixth last season after three earlier top-3 finishes. The Guardians have no shortage of excellent pitching, but if they’re going to mount a playoff run, it’ll be fueled by Ramirez, whose 6.7 WAR last season was more than the next four Cleveland position players combined.
Tim Anderson, White Sox (+3500): A bit better fortune health-wise might turn Anderson into the best player on the AL team with the easiest path to the playoffs. Anderson missed 88 games over the last three seasons but still hit .322 with 45 homers, 138 RBIs and 40 stolen bases, which prorates to an average 162-game season of 25 homers, 76 RBIs and 20 stolen bases. Pretty good for a shortstop who is also the unquestioned leader of a championship contender.
Longshot I like: Tim Anderson AL MVP +4000.
Do I think it’s *probable*? No, you can’t think like that on 40-1 shots.
But, I could see a scenario where White Sox have best record in AL, he wins batting crown, has a bunch of steals, and it a general vocal spark plug.
— Ryan Glasspiegel (@sportsrapport) March 14, 2022
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bryce Harper, Phillies (+1000): How often do you get to say there’s value in picking the defending MVP to repeat? But with only Soto possessing a chance to play a full season among the preseason favorites, there’s a path to a repeat for Harper — who, it should be noted, won his second MVP last season despite not setting career-highs in any major offensive category.
Who will win the NL MVP?
Juan Soto +400
Fernando Tatis Jr. +400
Ronald Acuna Jr. +800
Bryce Harper +1000
Trea Turner +1200
Mookie Betts +1200
Christian Yelich +2800
Pete Alonso +2800@BetUS_Official— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) March 13, 2022
A third MVP would also all but ensure the Hall of Fame for Harper, who’s never lacked for self-awareness regarding his place in the game. Every three-time MVP winner who is eligible for the Hall of Fame is enshrined except the steroid-tainted Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez.
Austin Riley, Braves (+3000): The Braves didn’t re-sign Freddie Freeman, but maybe they have their next Chipper Jones in Riley, who hit .333 with 19 homers and 65 RBIs after the All-Star Break. He also posted 1.5 WAR at third base after recording a -0.9 WAR in defense while splitting time between left field and third base during the 60-game 2020 season.
Manny Machado, Padres (+4000): No player has collected more plate appearances since 2015 than Machado, who ranks fourth in that span in homers and sixth in RBIs. His OPS of .850 is tied for 32nd, but that still works out to an OPS+ of 128. Machado — who somehow isn’t turning 30 until July — is still in the sweet spot of his prime and, with Tatis likely out for the first half, should be the offensive centerpiece for a playoff contender.
