For most of the last 15 years, the majority of the people making an investment in the World Series future odds of the New York Mets have BEEN fans of the New York Mets.
It’s not that the Mets have been bad, per se. Only five other teams have gone longer without finishing in last place than the Mets, who last occupied sole possession of the NL East basement in 2003.
But they haven’t been very good, either, especially for a team located in a baseball-mad market and previously owned by a family that also counted a regional sports network among its holdings.
The Mets have made two playoff appearances since 2007 — tied for 26th-most in the majors with the Kansas City Royals and ahead of only the Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners — and have finished with a losing record 10 times in the last 13 seasons, a total exceeded only by the Marlins and Padres.
As Mets fans know all too well, the start of the latter timeframe marked the start of permanent austerity for the Wilpons, who lost hundreds of millions of dollars when Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme fell apart in 2008. For the rest of their tenure, the Wilpons made the type of either/or choices that shouldn’t have to be pondered by a New York-based team operating in a league without a salary cap.
Why extend only David Wright instead of both Wright and Jose Reyes? Why go year-to-year with a generational rotation instead of waiting to see which one was worth signing long-term? Why spend $23.5 million on free agents Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha and Dellin Betances following the 2019 season instead of re-signing Zack Wheeler, who went to the Phillies on a five-year deal worth $23.6 million annually?
Those decision-making dilemmas ended for the Mets in November 2020, when the Wilpons sold the team to Steve Cohen for a record $2.4 billion. And now, after a winter in which they finally acted like a big-market team by signing Max Scherzer to a $130 million deal while also inking fellow free agents Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar and Starling Marte to deals worth a guaranteed $124.5 million, the Mets are a popular pick to win it all outside of those already rooting for their favorite team to finally win the World Series for the first time since 1986.
As of last Tuesday, the Mets were the most-bet team to win the World Series at DraftKings, drawing 15% of the bets at +1000 — tied for the fourth-lowest odds with the Houston Astros and defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves and behind the 2020 champion Los Angeles Dodgers (+475), the Yankees (+900) and the Toronto Blue Jays (+900).
Residing in the sweet spot as a fun pick to win the World Series yet not the favorite seems like the right place for the Mets, who offer plenty of upside yet also numerous question marks.
The Mets finished ahead of only the Texas Rangers, Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates in runs scored last season. Canha, Escobar and Marte are all older than 30 and could, individually or collectively, serve as a reminder of how the Mets have spent decades trying to fix their lineup with big-named additions who promptly flopped in the Big Apple. (For $5.49 plus shipping, you can purchase a reminder of the 1992 Mets, led by Bobby Bonilla and Eddie Murray, on eBay).
Outside of Scherzer and Jacob deGrom — who have combined to win five Cy Youngs — the only other pitcher in camp who has thrown 162 innings (the minimum required to qualify for the ERA title) in any of the last five full seasons is Carlos Carrasco, who hasn’t done it since 2018.
And both Scherzer and deGrom showed signs of being mortal last year, when the 37-year-old Scherzer couldn’t pitch Game 6 of the NL Championship Series due to his slow recovery from closing out Game 5 of the NLDS against the Giants and deGrom posted a 1.08 ERA in the first half but didn’t pitch again due to a right elbow injury.
And even if everything goes as well as the Mets hope this season, the latest expansion of the playoffs — to six teams per league — have made the postseason a bigger crapshoot than ever. It’s easy to envision a scenario in which the Mets turn into the east coast version of the 2013-19 Dodgers: A team operated like a big-market behemoth that is annually vexed in the playoffs.
But as evidenced by their popularity on the futures market, it’s almost as easy to envision it all coming together for the Mets this season. Every start by deGrom or Scherzer is a must-watch affair. The Mets still have the core of the last sum-needs-to-be-better-than-the-parts team of the Wilpon era in former home run king Pete Alonso, lineup catalyst Brandon Nimmo and the trio of Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil, all of whom have posted an OPS+ of 130 or better at least once. Francisco Lindor had a nightmarish first season in New York, but he’s still just 28 years old and has four top-15 AL MVP finishes on his resume
And for the first time since Bobby Valentine was dressing up in the dugout, the Mets will have, to borrow a football term, a decided schematic advantage at manager in Buck Showalter, who will be out-prepared by no one as he takes over the most talented team he’s ever had and looks to add the World Series title that’s missing from what is otherwise a Hall of Fame-caliber resume.
The Mets might not win it all this year, but odds are it’ll be a long time before the only people wagering on their World Series aspirations are their own fans.
