The Rookie of the Year races in both the American League and National League look much different as the first day of summer nears than they did back during the final days of the winter. Just ask Julio Rodriguez and Mackenzie Gore, who are the current favorites to win the awards after beginning the season amongst the second-tier candidates, in Rodriguez’s case, or as an afterthought, a la Gore.
Of course, these races can change on a moment’s notice, as the AL competition did with Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena heading to the injured list Wednesday. And the NL derby may get a very interesting new face as soon as this weekend.
Here’s a look at four of the leading candidates in each league. All Opening Day baseball odds from BetMGM and all current odds from BetMGM as of this morning.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
OF Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (+100 now, +900 Opening Day): With solid counting numbers on offense and impressive defense at premium positions, Rodriguez and Pena were in a near-dead heat before Pena went on the shelf. The two lead all AL rookies in OPS+ — Pena at 130 and Rodriguez at 120 — while possessing uncannily similar Triple Crown lines: .277-9-27 for Pena and .263-8-28 for Rodriguez, who leads the majors with 17 stolen bases. Of the 11 players to lead their league in steals as a rookie, only three have won the Rookie of the Year. But maintaining a 40-steal pace could be the tiebreaker for Rodriguez.
SS Jeremy Pena, Astros (+225 now, +1100 Opening Day): The Astros said an MRI on Pena’s left thumb didn’t reveal any extensive damage, but finger injuries are notoriously tricky and Pena won’t swing a bat for a week, which likely means he’s out until at least the end of this month. In a race as close as this one, even a couple weeks could be the difference.
3B/SS Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (+800 now, +300 Opening Day): Witt has mostly erased a slow start by hitting .298 over his last 22 games and is on pace to join Rodriguez in having a 20 homer/20 steal season as a rookie. But Witt is going to need a slump by Rodriguez to gain ground.
P Joe Ryan, Twins (+2000 now, +2000 Opening Day): Starting pitchers haven’t swept the Rookie of the Year since the strike-shortened 1981 season, when the New York Yankees’ Dave Righetti and Los Angeles Dodgers’ Fernando Valenzuela won the awards for the World Series-bound New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers. Ryan (5-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in nine starts) is unlikely to leapfrog the everyday players ahead of him, but he’s worth keeping an eye on as the likely Game 1 starter should the AL Central-leading Twins reach the playoffs.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
P Mackenzie Gore, Padres (+175 now, +4000 Opening Day): Gore’s a terrific example of the non-linear path often taken by top prospects. Baseball America didn’t even have Gore, the no. 3 overall pick in the 2017 draft, listed among its top 100 prospects this season after the left-hander didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the pandemic canceling the minor league season and struggled to a 3.93 ERA while battling blisters and mechanical problems last season. But he’s gone 4-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 50 1/3 innings this year and has a chance to be the first Rookie of the Year-winning starting pitcher since Michael Fulmer won the AL award with the Detroit Tigers in 2016.
OF Seiya Suzuki, Cubs (+700 now, +500 Opening Day): The NL race is still wide-open with Gore at risk of being shut down or seeing his workload tapered off in order to keep him fresh for the playoffs. But Suzuki, who looked like the runaway winner in the balloting when he hit.333 with a .458 on-base percentage in his first 18 games, is in danger of being surpassed by candidates who have spent most or all of the season in the minors. Suzuki is batting just .183 with a .253 on-base percentage in his last 23 games and hasn’t played since May 26 due to a sprained left ring finger.
OF Michael Harris, Braves (+1100 now, n/a Opening Day): The Braves’ surge — they’ve won 14 straight games, one shy of the modern franchise record — has been fueled by Harris, who was recalled from Double-A May 28 and is hitting .370 with a 1.033 OPS this month. There will surely be some regression, especially with a .439 average on balls in play, but the Braves are also no stranger to Rookie of the Year winners who turned the marathon into a sprint. Bob Horner, the 1978 winner, made his big league debut 44 years ago today while David Justice won the 1990 award despite not joining the Braves until May 16.
SS Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+1300 now, +300 Opening Day): The Pirates — outscored 49-21 during a nine-game losing streak that ended Wednesday and again flirting with a 100-loss pace — are continuing to insist, apparently with a straight face, that Cruz needs more minor league seasoning. Couldn’t possibly be the Super Two deadline likely coming and going sometime this month, which will keep Cruz ineligible for arbitration until after the 2025 season! Anyway, the regression of Suzuki keeps the door open for Cruz, who should be playing everyday as soon as next week and possesses some of the game’s rawest power (his second big league hit last season, a single, was measured at 118.2 mph off the bat, the hardest hit by a Pirates player since Statcast debuted in 2015), all while playing shortstop at 6-foot-7.
