2022 MLB Futures Betting: Early ERA Leader Zac Gallen an Attractive Longshot N.L. Cy Young Candidate

Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen is off to a blazing start in 2022.

The 26-year-old is 2-0 with a Major League-best 0.95 ERA through five starts, which included seven shutout innings in a win over the Rockies on Sunday. Gallen had a delayed start to the season because of shoulder discomfort in the offseason and then a cut on his thumb, but is firing on all cylinders now.

The Diamondbacks, expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season, are 15-14 on the year, mostly on the strength of their pitching.

Merrill Kelly has been really good for Arizona this season — 3-1 with a 1.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP — and is a longshot candidate to win the National League Cy Young award, but it’s his younger teammate who seems to have a truly legitimate shot at being in the running.

The best payout for Gallen to win the Cy Young is at FanDuel, which currently has +5500 odds. That is an attractive price, because of his fast start and the underlying peripherals that Gallen has produced not only this season, but throughout his career.

Gallen has averaged a sparkling 10.23 strikeouts per nine innings throughout his career and has a career ERA of 3.22.

His career walk rate of 3.40 per nine innings is higher than a typical ace, and if that is duplicated in 2022, it will be hard for Gallen to put up Cy Young-worthy numbers. However, Gallen is only walking 1.27 batters per nine innings through 28.1 innings pitched this season, and while that number will trend upward as the sample size grows, it’s an encouraging start.

His hard-hit percentage allowed of 31.1% this season is in line with an elite hurler, and only four of his pitches have been hit on the barrel this year, per FanGraphs, a very low amount.

Gallen is allowing a BABIP of only .216 this season, is stranding 87.5% of runners and has yet to allow a home run. Those aren’t sustainable, but Gallen’s ERA is so low that he can regress to the mean and still put up a sparkling campaign. He has an expected ERA of 1.81 so far this year, according to FanGraphs, which proves that his start has not been fluky.

Zac Gallen through five starts: 2-0, 0.95 ERA, 0.71 WHIP.

Merrill Kelly through six starts: 3-1, 1.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) May 9, 2022

Gallen’s fastball velocity has ticked up this season and he is entering the prime of his career. He doesn’t have the same name recognition as the Cy Young favorites, and an injury or a slump could pull him from the pace, but this early start is extremely encouraging.

If Gallen’s hot start continues, the odds of him capturing the Cy Young will only get better, and the payout won’t be as lucrative. For those that believe in his ability as a top-flight hurler, now is the time to place a wager.

Here is a look at FanDuel’s top candidates to win the Cy Young award, as Gallen will have some serious competition even if he continues to excel on the mound.

5. LHP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (+1700 odds)

Kershaw is one of the best pitchers of the past decade, and at age-34 remains a dominant hurler when healthy. However, he has dealt with injuries in each of the past three seasons and must prove he can throw enough innings to be in the mix. Kershaw is off to a great start this season with a 4-0 record and a 1.80 ERA through five starts. He is striking out 9.60 batters per nine innings and allowing only 0.90 walks, a dominant ratio.

4. RHP Walker Buehler, Dodgers (+1200 odds)

Buehler’s strikeout numbers are lower than expected in the earlygoing but he has still managed to minimize run-scoring, as he has a 4-1 record and a 1.96 ERA in six starts. Buehler has emerged as one of the best starters in the National League and at age-26 is in the midst of his prime. Buehler is not throwing as hard as in past years and the hard hit percentage against him has trended upward, so those will be numbers to watch as the season progresses.

3. LHP Carlos Rodon, Giants (+700 odds)

Rodon finally put it all together last season for the White Sox, striking out batters at a prodigious clip and finishing with a 2.37 ERA. He has started the same way in San Francisco, averaging 12.72 strikeouts per nine innings while registering an ERA of 1.55. Injuries have always been a concern throughout his career, but if Rodon can stay healthy, he seems to have figured things out and could easily end up the Cy Young award winner.

T-1. RHP Max Scherzer, Mets (+500 odds)

Scherzer is 37 years old but continues to dominate, much to the chagrin of National League batters. Scherzer has a 2.92 ERA in the earlygoing and is striking out nearly 12 batters per nine innings while keeping the walks down. His home run rate has ticked up slightly, as has the barreled balls, but he is still an elite pitcher who should be a serious candidate.

T-1. RHP Corbin Burnes, Brewers (+500 odds) 

Burnes won last year’s Cy Young despite throwing only 167 innings because he was so dominant when on the mound. He had a 2.43 ERA with 12.61 strikeouts per nine innings and amassed a WAR of 7.5 in only 28 starts. Burnes is 1-2 with a 1.86 ERA this year and again has strong peripherals.