2022 MLB Futures Betting: Can Adley Rutschman Catch Up in A.L. Rookie of the Year Race?

Anyone who invested in the futures market for Julio Rodriguez or Jeremy Pena has to like how the American League Rookie of the Year race is developing between the two AL West budding stars, who are tied atop the BetMGM board today at +225.

Rodriguez, who had the third-best odds at BetMGM (+550) on Opening Day, has swiped a major-league leading 13 stolen bases for the Seattle Mariners and displayed a promising combination of power at the plate and prowess in centerfield. Pena opened the season with +1100 odds, tied for seventh-best in the AL, but has produced 2.3 WAR — the second-most in the AL, per Baseball-Reference, behind only the all-universe Mike Trout — while showing five-tool potential at shortstop for the Houston Astros.

As well as Rodriguez and Pena have performed, though, history suggests it’s a good idea to keep an eye on a couple long-shots in the AL Rookie of the Year race: Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman and Oakland Athletics closer Dany Jimenez.

The promotion of Rutschman — the No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft — last Saturday might eventually be looked back upon as the day the ever-tanking Orioles became relevant again. A switch-hitting catcher with power — Rutschman hit 30 homers in 650 minor league at-bats — is one of baseball’s unicorn-like figures. Only 33 switch-hitting catchers have hit 10 homers in a season and just 16 have done it more than once (including Matt Wieters, a hyped Orioles first-round pick in 2007 who had seven double-digit homer seasons during a solid but unspectacular career from 2009 through 2020)

Rutschman, who opened the season with the fourth-best Rookie of the Year odds in the American League at +650 (just behind Rodriguez), has yet to homer. But even just singling from both sides of the plate against the New York Yankees in his first two-hit game last night — when he won a 10-pitch second-inning battle with fellow rookie JP Sears before getting a hit in the ninth inning off closer Clay Holmes, who has an ERA of 0.38 — provided a hint at his difference-making skills.

And while he’s got ground to make up against Rodriguez and Pena — because the Orioles decided he needed more seasoning until they coincidentally gained another year of contractual control with Rutschman, who won’t be eligible for free agency until the winter of 2028-29 — the Rookie of the Year landscape is filled with winners who made their debuts in May or later. Rutschman’s current odds sit at +1000.

Ten Rookie of the Year winners since 2000 have joined their team for the first time after May 1, including six who did so on May 15 or later. The Astros didn’t recall Carlos Correa in 2015 until June 8, four years and one day before they promoted Yordan Alvarez. In 2013, the Tampa Bay Rays waited until June 18 to call up Wil Myers.

Myers was called up exactly 35 years after Bob Horner, the No. 1 pick in the 1978 draft who went straight from Arizona State to the Atlanta Braves and cruised to the NL award by hitting 23 homers in just 89 games. The standard bearer for Rookie of the Year winners making up for lost time remains the late Hall of Famer Willie McCovey, who didn’t debut for the San Francisco Giants until July 30, 1959 yet won the NL crown by hitting .354 with 13 homers and 38 RBIs in 52 games.

While Rutschman was a popular Rookie of the Year target in the preseason, Jimenez wasn’t even on the radar as the best rookie in his own bullpen. A.J. Puk, who transitioned to a relief role after struggling with injuries as a starter, had odds of +5500 at DraftKings and a potential path to closer for the rebuilding Athletics.

But Jimenez, a 28-year-old who was twice selected in the Rule 5 draft yet entered this season having performed in just two big league games, earned his first save in his fourth appearance this season and wrested the job from incumbent closer Lou Trivino while the latter was on the COVID-19 IL. Jimenez is 10-for-10 in save opportunities with a 0.49 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.  The only other closer with a perfect save percentage and at least 10 saves is perennial Milwaukee Brewers All-Star Josh Hader, who is 15-for-15.

Jimenez remains well behind Rodriguez and Pena in the AL Rookie of the Year — he’s at +5000 at BetMGM as of today — but his secure grip on the closer’s job on a sub-.500 team should give him a chance to generate big counting numbers and provide him an opportunity to vault into the race.

Twelve relievers have won the Rookie of the Year, though a full-time closer hasn’t done so since Craig Kimbrel racked up 46 saves for the Braves in 2011. Devin Williams earned the 2020 NL award by posting a 0.33 ERA and 53 strikeouts over just 27 innings for the Milwaukee Brewers during the pandemic-shortened season. Williams was the fourth rookie relief pitcher to win the Rookie of the Year for a team that finished the season with a losing record, following Butch Metzger (1976 San Diego Padres), Todd Worrell (1986 St. Louis Cardinals) and Andrew Bailey (2009 Athletics).

And speaking of Bailey, in case you’re looking for a sign of potential good things to come for Jimenez? The Athletics are the only team to ever yield two Rookie of the Year-winning closers. Bailey recorded 26 saves with a 1.84 ERA months after Oakland traded Huston Street, who won the award for the club in 2005 by notching 23 saves with a 1.73 ERA.