2022 MLB Betting Preview: Pete Alonso A Home Run Crown Candidate and Other Baseball Futures

Happy Opening Day eve! Looking to invest in some player futures that you can monitor all season?

Here’s a mix of favorites and intriguing longer shots to lead Major League Baseball in homers, stolen bases, wins and strikeouts. (All odds from BetMGM as of Apr. 6)

HOME RUNS

Pete Alonso, Mets (+1000): Durability is a key with any futures wager and Alonso managing to play in 370 of a possible 384 games since 2019 is a positively Ripken-ian feat given the Mets’ star-crossed nature. Also a key: 106 homers since 2019.

Rafael Devers, Red Sox (+1600): Devers, who turned 25 in November, already has 112 big league homers, which gives him more homers prior to turning 25 than the likes of Manny Ramirez, Duke Snider, Willie McCovey and Frank Thomas. He hit a career-high 38 homers last season, but an OPS of “merely” .890 — 26 points below his 2019 career-high — indicates there’s still a higher ceiling to reach.

Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+2000): Schwarber is one of just 15 players with at least three 30-homer seasons since 2017. And now he’s going to the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park, where he’s got six homers in 62 at-bats, and into a division where he’s got 25 homers in 310 at-bats against the Phillies’ four foes — a total that includes a mere two homers in 95 at-bats against the Braves.

STOLEN BASES

Starling Marte, Mets (+500): Have you heard the one about the player who led the majors but neither league in stolen bases? Marte’s 47 steals last season were by far the most in the bigs, but he split the season with the Marlins (22 steals) and Athletics (25 steals). The biggest hurdle to leading the NL this year might be Buck Showalter, whose teams have recorded more stolen bases than the league average just once in his 19 full seasons as a manager. 

Trea Turner, Dodgers (+700): Can’t find a much safer bet than a two-time stolen base champ who is still just 28 years old. It’s encouraging that Turner stole bases at roughly the same clip (11 steals in 52 games) as he did with the Nationals (21 steals in 96 games).

Myles Straw, Guardians (+1200): Straw’s odds rank behind those of the Royals’ tandem of Adalberto Mondesi (+250) and Merrifield (+500), who have combined to win the AL stolen base crown in each of the last four full seasons, as well as the Orioles’ Cedric Mullins (+900). But Cleveland has stolen more bases than the league average in each of Terry Francona’s eight full seasons as manager. And the Guardians, with an anemic lineup outside of Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, will likely need to get creative to score some runs.

WINS

Gerrit Cole, Yankees (+650): The Yankees’ off-season was strange to say the least, but Cole’s the defending AL win champ as well as the winningest pitcher in the majors since 2018 (58 victories). There’s enough bad teams in the AL for the Yankees to stay in wild card contention and for Cole to rack up wins at close to his usual rate.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers (+800): The Dodgers, meanwhile, went out and got Freddie Freeman. Anything resembling a quality start for Buehler is going to put him in a good spot to earn a win.

Jose Berrios, Blue Jays (+1500): Berrios has never won more than 14 games in a season. But he’s also never been the no. 1 starter for the favorite to represent the American League in the World Series.

STRIKEOUTS

Robbie Ray, Mariners (+800): Control woes (4.3 walks per nine innings from 2014 through 2020) overshadowed Ray’s elite strikeout numbers — until last year, when he averaged just 2.4 walks and racked up a big league-best 248 whiffs on his way to winning the AL Cy Young.

Corbin Burnes, Brewers (+1100): Burnes won’t contend for the innings pitched crown, but last year was about quantity over quality for a pitcher who won the Cy Young with the fewest innings (167) of any Cy-winning starter over a 162-game season.

Aaron Nola, Phillies (+1300): Last year marked the third straight full season in which Nola struck out at least 200 batters. With the Phillies’ adventurous defense, he’ll almost surely have to make it four straight in order to keep himself in the Cy Young race.