2022 MLB Betting Preview: Joey Bart, Spencer Torkelson and Six Other Rookie of the Year Candidates To Consider

The fun thing about the Rookie of the Year award is the potential randomness of a one-shot-only honor. 

For a singular moment in time, Steve Sax was better than Ryne Sandberg, Bob Hamelin outslugged Manny Ramirez, Marty Cordova outshined Alex Rodriguez (who didn’t even get a vote in the Rookie of the Year balloting in 1995) and Dontrelle Willis cruised to victory in a rookie class that included teammate Miguel Cabrera.

So with that in mind, don’t be surprised if one or both MLB Rookie of the Year winners comes from well back in the preseason field…even if the AL favorite looks like the safest of safe bets. Here’s a look at eight candidates, four from each league. All odds from DraftKings as of Apr. 1.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (+300): The sight of Bobby Witt Jr. as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite is bit jarring for those of us old enough to remember Bobby Witt SENIOR’S rookie year in 1986. As solid a career as the elder Witt enjoyed (142 wins, 1,955 strikeouts and a World Series ring over 16 years), his son shows every sign of becoming a franchise cornerstone type of superstar for the Royals. 

The number one prospect in baseball is hitting .478 this spring. The world is about to know Bobby Witt Jr. https://t.co/R72O4US7Am

— Jonathan Cooper (@JCooperTV) March 31, 2022

Witt, a first-round pick in 2019 who didn’t play in 2020 because the pandemic canceled the minor league season, hit .290 with 33 homers and 29 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A last season and entered Friday hitting .422 with two homers and a stolen base in 24 spring training at-bats. The Royals aren’t expected to play service time games with Witt, who will likely open the season as either the starting third baseman or shortstop. Even accounting for the randomness of the award and the potential for rookie struggles/hiccups, Witt is as close to a set-and-forget option you’ll ever see in a Rookie of the Year futures.

Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (+450): This could be the start of a decade-long duel for awards between AL Central rivals Witt and Torkelson, whose Rookie of the Year odds rank right behind Witt’s. The first overall pick of the 2020 draft, Torkelson hit 30 homers while soaring from Single-A to Triple-A in his first season of professional ball last year. The Tigers have also said they won’t manipulate the service time of Torkelson, who should man one of the infield corners on Opening Day and well beyond.

Jeremy Pena, Astros (+1200): You’re feeling pretty good about your lottery ticket if you got in on Pena when he was at +2000 because Carlos Correa was still on the free agent market. Correa, of course, signed with the Twins, which leaves Pena a clear path to everyday at-bats on a pennant contender. Pena, who stole 20 bases in his most recent full minor league season in 2019, could even bat leadoff for the Astros.

A.J. Puk, Athletics (+5500): Speaking of lottery tickets, how lucky do you feel about the chances of an oft-injured pitching prospect transitioning to the bullpen and becoming a closer for a rebuilding team? Six closers have won the Rookie of the Year since 2000, including Andrew Bailey for the Athletics in 2009. Unlikely, but you never know.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+380): The lockout has come and gone and so-called small-market teams like the Pirates are still obviously tanking and playing service time games with stud prospects like Cruz, who was sent to Triple-A earlier this week despite hitting .333 with two homers in Grapefruit League action. Cruz’s need for further “seasoning” is all but certain to evaporate once he’s accrued enough time on the farm to delay his free agency until 2028, so he should still have plenty of time to build a Rookie of the Year candidacy. He hit .310 while collecting 17 homers and 19 stolen bases in just 69 minor league games last season.

Joey Bart, Giants (+750): The retirement of Buster Posey gives Bart a chance to become the first catcher to win the Rookie of the Year since Posey in 2010. Catching is notoriously tough for rookies, but Bart, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft, is seasoned (he’s 25 years old and has 769 minor league at-bats) and should have a pretty good support system on a team that won a whopping 107 games last season.

Joey Bart smashed a home run and got complimented by Carlos Rodón on Tuesday pic.twitter.com/jT5Wtz0adc

— KNBR (@KNBR) March 30, 2022

Seth Beer, Diamondbacks (+3000): How can you not like a slugging corner infielder with the last name Beer? Seth suffered a dislocated shoulder late last season but has looked terrific in spring training (.474 with five extra-base hits in 19 at-bats through Thursday) and has a clear path to playing time with the rebuilding Diamondbacks. Plus, with the older rookie likes of Hamelin, Ryan Howard and Jose Abreu displaying Rookie of the Year trophies on their respective mantles, history is on the side of Beer, who is 25 years old. 

Robert Suarez, Padres (n/a): If you’re looking for a real longshot, keep an eye on the odds as Opening Day approaches for Suarez, a 31-year-old who spent most of his career in Japan. The Padres don’t have a set closer, so Suarez could be a fun lottery ticket to purchase within the next week if he shows up on the list of candidates. And don’t forget Japan Central League veteran Kaz Sasaki won the Rookie of the Year as a 32-year-old closer for the Mariners in 2000.