No one needs a reason to be optimistic on the first day of spring training, but when that first day arrives in the middle of March due to a lockout and in the midst of a decidedly uncertain time in human history…well, it doesn’t take much to daydream of October glory, either as a fan of a particular team or as someone looking to invest in a darkhorse with a chance to make a deep playoff run.
As the glorious sights and sounds of baseball again fill the air, here’s a look at the postseason odds for eight interesting teams, plus the World Series odds for a pair of pennant contenders. All odds courtesy of DraftKings on March 14.
Mets (-285 to make playoffs)
It’ll never not be weird realizing that the new CBA includes language basically inserted to punish the Mets owner when he spends TOO much money. Steve Cohen responded to a rocky first year as owner by hiring Buck Showalter, already the best manager the Mets have had since Bobby Valentine, and spending more than $250 million in free agency, where he found a no. 2 starter named Max Scherzer. Cohen’s in it to win it, not play meaningful games in September. What a concept.
Giants (-130)
Most of us spent last season wondering how the Giants, the oldest team in baseball, won 107 games. They’re almost surely not going to do that again, especially with Kevin Gausman gone to the Blue Jays, Buster Posey retired and his 30-something peers all a year older. But there’s some value here, considering that even a 15-win drop would very likely leave the Giants in a wild card spot. Only one sixth-place team in either league has won more than 92 games in the nine full seasons since 2012, the first season of the second wild card (the 2019 Indians went 93-69).
Cardinals (-110)
Some wariness is understood — the firing of manager Mike Shildt is still a head-scratcher — but the Cardinals, last year’s second NL wild card, have finished lower than sixth in the NL just once in a full season since 2012. Their top 10 players in WAR from last season, per Baseball Reference, are all back. And with franchise icons Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina likely in their final seasons, a front office that is always aggressive — the Cardinals were eight games out of the second wild card spot when they acquired Jon Lester and J.A. Happ last July 30 — will go for it again if the Cardinals are in the mix in late July.
Phillies (+125)
Hard to believe the Phillies have been mired in a cycle of rebuilding and constant mediocrity for 10 years now. It’s even harder to believe the Phillies would have missed the six-team playoffs (by a game) last season despite having the MVP (Bryce Harper) and the Cy Young runner-up (Zack Wheeler), the latter of whom is being brought along slowly after dealing with some wintertime shoulder issues. But this is a pretty good price, especially if the ever-aggressive Dave Dombrowski makes Harper happy by signing his buddy Kris Bryant.
Angels (+150)
Sixty-two players had more at-bats in the playoffs last season than Mike Trout has had (12) in his entire Hall of Fame-bound career. The next at-bat Shohei Ohtani takes or pitch he throws in the playoffs will be his first. And frankly, the Angels didn’t do a whole lot before the lockout to get a pair of generational talents closer to performing on the October stage. While Noah Syndergaard has the big name and reputation, a pitcher who has tossed two innings the last two years might not be the No. 2 starter the Angels need behind Ohtani, who only threw 130 1/3 frames last year. This is about the optimism of March and the belief that Jared Walsh has arrived as a potent middle-of-the order force and outfielders Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell are ready to join Trout in forming one of the game’s more exciting outfields.
Mariners (+215)
We’ve been here before with the Mariners, who won at least 85 games despite a negative run-differential last season for the fourth time since 2007. In the first three seasons following their previous overachievement — 2008, 2010 and 2019 — the Mariners combined to lose 296 games. But the Mariners, who haven’t advanced to the postseason since Ichiro Suzuki’s rookie year in 2001, are primed to break through with a lineup that doesn’t have a player older than 31 and features post-hype breakout candidates Jarred Kelenic and Kyle Lewis. The Mariners also signed AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray to front a rotation that could get a big second-year leap from Logan Gilbert. If you’re feeling particularly bullish, the Mariners are +600 to win the AL West.
Tigers (+330)
Fun with smallish sample sizes: The Tigers went 37-34 after the All-Star Break last season, just one game behind the White Sox in the second half AL Central standings. And before the lockout, the Tigers provided evidence they believe they’re further along than the rest of their retooling/rebuilding division rivals by signing an Opening Day pitcher (Eduardo Rodriguez) to head a rotation that also features budding stars Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal and inking Javier Baez to a six-year deal.
Guardians (+350)
Forget what you’re about to read if the Guardians trade Jose Ramirez. But if they keep the perennial MVP contender, remember that the Guardians are the AL’s version of the Cardinals, with just two finishes outside the AL’s top six in the eight full seasons since Terry Francona arrived in 2013. Also remember nobody develops pitchers like Cleveland, which turned Corey Kluber and Shane Bieber into Cy Young Award winners — and cultivated Trevor Bauer before he won the NL award for the Reds in 2020 — and seems to be turning Cal Quantrill and Aaron Civale into award contenders. And don’t forget nobody manages a bullpen as adroitly as Francona.
Blue Jays (+475 AL pennant)
A six-team playoff field last season would have made the Blue Jays — who went 22-9 after Sept. 1 to finish 91-71, just one game behind the Red Sox and Yankees in the wild card race — an awfully dangerous foe in October. The Blue Jays lost Marcus Semien, who finished third in the MVP balloting, and Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray to free agency, but Cavan Biggio will slide over to second base and Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi arrived as free agents to pitch behind Jose Berrios in what is one of the deepest rotations in baseball.
And the Blue Jays still have Biggio’s fellow second-generation stars — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who finished second in the MVP voting after flirting with the Triple Crown, and Bo Bichette — anchoring the middle of the lineup. The Blue Jays aren’t exactly sneaking up on anyone — they’re tied with the Yankees as the second-biggest favorite to win the pennant behind the Astros (+425) — but this might be the last time they’re anything close to a darkhorse.
Brewers (+700 NL pennant)
Outside of the Cardinals, the rest of the NL Central is in disarray, which means the Brewers — who have made the playoffs in each of the last four seasons after reaching the postseason just four times in the franchise’s first 49 seasons — are positioned nicely to spend six months tuning up for October. A top-of-the-rotation trio of Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and defending NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, plus a potent bullpen led by three-time Trevor Hoffman winner Josh Hader, is a pretty good formula for playoff success.
