2022 MLB Betting Preview: Cy Young Favorites Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom Have Question Marks

With teams growing ever less reliant on starting pitchers, trying to project the MLB Cy Young races in each league would be challenging enough in normal-ish times. 

Add into the equation the uncertainty accompanied by a third straight unusual campaign — how will pitchers fare coming off a condensed spring training following a 162-game season that came on the heels of the 60-game pandemic-shortened season? — and there’s no shortage of fascinating favorites and long-shot candidates. 

Here’s seven of them (four in the American League and three in the National League), with all betting odds from DraftKings as of March 22.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Gerrit Cole, Yankees (+425): The favorites aren’t supposed to be this interesting (wait until we get to the NL). Cole, still in his prime at 31 years old, has been knocking on the AL Cy Young door the last four years, during which he’s finished fifth, second, fourth and second in the balloting while leading the majors in wins (58), strikeouts (939) and innings pitched (667) and leading all AL pitchers in WAR (20.1), per Baseball-Reference.

But how can Cole fare an entire season without Spider Tack? Cole, who stammered his way around a question about his usage of the now-banned substance last June, went 8-3 with a 2.31 ERA in 14 starts before the league began cracking down on substances and 8-5 with a 4.12 ERA in 16 starts thereafter. Perhaps those numbers are inflamed by a late-season hiccup following a hamstring injury for Cole, who posted a 7.64 ERA in his final three regular season starts before giving up three runs in just two innings in the Yankees’ wild card game loss to the Red Sox. The oddsmakers seem to be betting on the track record.

The arms. 💪 @MLBONFOX

Pitchers with the best odds to win the NL & AL Cy Young Awards. (odds via @FOXBet) pic.twitter.com/kAZIouzu5M

— FOX Bet Live (@FOXBetLive) March 11, 2022

Dylan Cease, White Sox (+1400): Teammate Lucas Giolito (+1100) has slightly shorter odds after establishing himself as one of the AL’s aces the last three years, but Cease is an intriguing pick after finishing among the AL’s top 10 in ERA, wins and strikeouts in 2021. Cease drastically cut his walk rate — issuing 68 free passes in 165 2/3 innings after entering the season with 69 walks in 131 1/3 big league innings — while averaging 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings, up from 8.6 whiffs per nine in his first two years. Another step forward will launch him into the upper echelon.

Sean Manaea (+1400) and Frankie Montas (+1800): Consider these fliers in case the tanking Athletics trade either Manaea or Montas within the AL. Manaea is the more established of the two, with a 2018 no-hitter on his resume and a 3.73 ERA in 48 starts since he returned from shoulder surgery late in the 2019 season. But Montas looked like an emerging star in the second half of last season, when he went 5-2 with a 2.17 ERA while striking out 102 batters over 87 innings. Montas finished the season with a 3.37 ERA, which was the exact same figure as his FIP (fielding independent pitching), an indication there was nothing fluky about his performance.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Jacob deGrom, Mets (+380): If you thought Cole was a compelling favorite, just check out his New York crosstown rival. Nobody on this planet or any other has pitched better over the last eight seasons than deGrom, who is 77-53 with a 2.50 ERA and 1,505 strikeouts since making his debut in 2014. DeGrom, a two-time NL Cy Young Award winner, looked ready to polish off the most fascinating Hall of Fame candidacy in history when he went 7-2 with a 1.08 ERA and 146 strikeouts over 92 innings in 15 first-half starts last season. 

But deGrom, who battled several supposedly minor injuries throughout the first half, never pitched in the second half due to a right elbow injury. DeGrom and the Mets say he is fine, but no one will really know for sure until he’s throwing pitches that count. Adding to the intrigue is the contract status for deGrom, who watched the Mets offer Trevor Bauer a $100 million deal and sign Max Scherzer to a $130 million contract the last two off-seasons. DeGrom, in the fourth season of a five-year deal worth $137.5 million, said he plans to use his opt-out clause this fall. So he’ll be pitching for the Hall of Fame and a new deal, all while firing 100 mph fastballs and 93 mph sliders with an arm that barked all last season. In other words: Check out Mets Twitter this season if you want to see what it’s like when an entire fanbase holds its breath every time a pitcher throws the baseball.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers (+850): Among last year’s top five NL Cy Young finishers, Buehler — who is 40-13 with a 2.90 ERA since making his debut in 2017 and won’t turn 28 until July — is the safest bet to approach 200 innings and flirt with leading the league in each of the Triple Crown categories. The Brewers, who are overwhelming favorites to win the NL Central, are likely to manage the innings of reigning Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes and fifth-place finisher Brandon Woodruff. 

Runner-up Zach Wheeler dealt with shoulder soreness in the off-season and third-place finisher Max Scherzer turns 38 in July. Pitching as the clear ace of a surefire pennant contender, this could finally be the year Buehler earns the adoration of the sportos, the motorheads, the geeks and everyone else in the electorate.

Max Fried, Braves (+1200): Can you believe Atlanta, the cradle of Cy Young winners in the ’90s, hasn’t had a pitcher take home the award since Tom Glavine in 1998? Fried is an interesting darkhorse after leading the NL with 38 victories since 2019 while also ranking among the top 15 in ERA (3.35) and innings pitched (387 1/3). As the ace of the Braves’ rotation, he’s well-positioned to contend for the Cy Young if Atlanta can emerge as the winner of a competitive NL East.