2022 MLB Betting Preview: Big Gulf Between Kris Bryant’s DraftKings Home Run Total and Fangraphs Projection

Every spring, fantasy baseball players rush to Fangraphs to check out their projections for the upcoming Major League Baseball season.

The sabermetric website can also help glean some interesting nuggets when it comes to betting. DraftKings has unveiled its home run totals for the 2022 campaign, and there is a lot of uniformity between its numbers and the ZiPS projections put out each year by Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski.

Of the 31 players listed, an astounding 26 of them have totals within 0.5 home runs of the Fangraphs projections.

However, there are some outliers. Here is a look at the five players in which ZiPS and DraftKings’ home run totals diverge the most, which could be a slight betting edge heading into the season. Odds as of March 29.

Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies

DraftKings home run total: 30.5
ZiPS home run projection: 23
Difference: 7.5 home runs 

The biggest outlier on the list is Bryant, who signed a seven-year, $182 million contract in mid-March to continue his career in the thin air of Denver for the foreseeable future.

Bryant is, unquestionably, one of the better hitters in the majors, and now he is going to an offensive paradise at Coors Field. However, it is understandable why Fangraphs isn’t sold on a home run barrage from the new Rockies first baseman.

Bryant does have a season where he clubbed 39 home runs with the Cubs, but in only two of his six full seasons has he surpassed 30 dingers. Also, Coors Field is not quite the home run haven that the general public believes. It was rated the fifth-most home run friendly park in 2021, but the real difference for offenses is the spacious outfield which allows many hits to drop.

ZiPS has the lowest-projected home run total among the various ones put out by Fangraphs, but notably, none have Bryant reaching 30 home runs on the season. His isolated power has decreased in aggregate over the past four years, and the under seems to be the obvious choice for new Colorado bettors and the Cubs fans who still follow Bryant from Illinois.

Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves

DraftKings home run total: 39.5
ZiPS home run projection: 37
Difference: 2.5 home runs

Olson has some major power, as he is tied for the fourth-best odds to claim the MLB home run crown on DraftKings. Some projections have him reaching 44 home runs this year, although that would require a substantial uptick in his isolated power compared to his career numbers.

Olson is moving from the Oakland Coliseum to Atlanta, which is a big help in park factor. Olson has not reached 40 home runs in a season thus far in his career, but at age-28, DraftKings is projecting a big-time campaign.

Olson has the raw ability, but any serious injury or prolonged slump could make it a challenge.

Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies

DraftKings home run total: 31.5
ZiPS home run projection: 30
Difference: 1.5 home runs

Other projections have Schwarber flying past this home run total, but ZiPS isn’t so sure. Schwarber clubbed 32 homers in only 113 games last season, and the raw power is prodigious. The introduction of the designated hitter to the National League is also a big help for Schwarber, who won’t be needed in the field all the time.

However, Schwarber has often struggled against left-handed pitchers in his career, leaving managers to park him on the bench for such matchups, and has missed a fair share of games due to injury throughout his career. ZiPS projects Schwarber to have only 497 plate appearances in 2022, and considering he draws a lot of walks, that doesn’t equate to a ton of home run opportunities. 

The over may seem like the easy choice originally, but these possible drawbacks give reason for pause.

Ronald Acuna, Atlanta Braves

DraftKings home run total: 36.5
ZiPS home run projection: 35
Difference: 1.5 home runs

Acuna is one of the best players in the major leagues and the 24-year-old has done nothing but hit since being called up in 2018. He clubbed 41 home runs in 2019 and smacked 24 in only 82 games a year ago.

So why the lower projection? Well, Acuna tore his ACL last July and missed the rest of the season. He is still recovering from that serious injury and is not expected back on the field until late-April. 

Acuna can be the DH until he is ready to play defense, but any type of setback or delay in the recovery will bite into his at-bats. This is a high home run total already, and the injury casts doubt on whether the superstar outfielder can reach it.

Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox

DraftKings home run total: 29.5
ZiPS home run projection: 28
Difference: 1.5 home runs

After starring for years as a slugging shortstop in Colorado, Story has now joined the Red Sox. He has 35- and 37-home run seasons in his career, so the power is there.

However, Story is switching from a top-5 home run park in Coors to Fenway, which is below average. The main question will be, can Story consistently get his launch angle up to clear the Green Monster in left field? As a right-handed batter, even screaming blasts that have too much of a line drive trajectory will result in singles or doubles.

It will be interesting to see if Story changes his approach in order to better fit his new home. This is a pretty high home run total for a player leaving the friendly thin air of Colorado and now facing the Green Monster, and so the Fangraphs projection that leans towards the under makes sense.