2022 MLB Betting Preview: All-Star Game Winner, MVP, First Home Run Predictions

Now that Pete Alonso has been dethroned and Juan Soto’s contract march includes a Home Run Derby crown, it’s time to focus on tonight’s Major League Baseball All-Star Game — which, despite all its modern flaws, is still the best All-Star Game of them all.

Of course, there’s a bit of damning with faint praise there. The Pro Bowl, played in between the conference championship games and Super Bowl, is an avert-your-eyes disaster. The NBA and NHL All-Star Games are atypically high-scoring free-for-alls generated in chaotic fashion, with a fantasy-style drafting of teams in the NBA and divisions playing divisions in the NHL.

Interleague play has removed all of the intrigue from watching the American League play the National League in the regular season and the understandable desire to get every player into the game (who doesn’t want a line in the boxscore to go along with his framed All-Star Game jersey?) has turned the game into a true exhibition.

But a little bit after 8 PM EST tonight, a lineup with nine AL players will oppose a lineup with nine NL players. It’s a game whose first nine innings will be played by the same rules as all 2,768 games played thus far this season. The result will be consistent with history, even if it ends in a Home Run Derby (which let’s face it, is infinitely better than ending with a ghost runner scoring from second on a leadoff hit). The game’s Most Valuable Player will win a car he could afford with the change in his couch cushions.

All of this is a little reassuring in times that require all the reassurance possible. And the All-Star game is also a fun and deceptively challenging game on which to wager. Here’s a look at how the history of the Midsummer Classic might foretell some of tonight’s results, along with odds regarding the game’s outcome and MVP as well as a couple neat prop bets to consider.

MONEYLINE

The National League is a +1.5 run underdog at DraftKings but at -200 juice, which is a good segue to discussing another fun thing about the MLB All-Star Game: One league historically dominates the other. The American League has won eight straight games dating back to 2013 (there was no game in 2020 due to the pandemic), a whopping 21 of 23 since 1998 and an almost-as-impressive 28 of 35 since 1986.

But this run by the AL was preceded by the National League going 26-3 from 1960 through 1985 (two games were played every year from 1959 through 1962). So is the AL worthy of wagering on until defeated, or do you feel the NL is due to start its own streak?

RUN TOTAL OVER/UNDER

Per DraftKings, the over/under is 7.5, which is a sneakily interesting number. Good pitching generally gets the better of good hitting and four of the last five All-Star Games have included fewer than eight runs — including the last two, which ended right at seven runs (the AL won 5-2 last year and 4-3 in 2019).

But history suggests this is a real coin flip: The leagues have combined to score more than eight runs 11 times in 21 All-Star Games this century. Of course, that includes six games from 2000 through 2005 — the end of the steroid era — in which the leagues combined to score eight runs or more five times. Which track record fills you with more confidence?

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

Or: The adult version of pin the tail on the donkey! Placing the name of every All-Star on a wall before donning a blindfold, spinning yourself around and around and stumbling until you place a hand on a random player might be as successful an endeavor as trying to parse the rosters and figure out who will stand out from his peers by making the most of his limited opportunity in tonight’s game.

DraftKings has 40 players listed — from Los Angeles Angels unicorn Shohei Ohtani at +360 to seven players at +10000 — on its MVP boards this morning. None are pitchers because most toss only an inning and that’s a particularly small window, even by the standards of the All-Star Game, in which to make a case.

Cleveland’s Shane Bieber became just the seventh pitcher to win the MVP in 2019, when he struck out the side in the fifth inning of the game played in Cleveland. The only reliever to win the MVP is legendary New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, who tossed a perfect eighth in his final All-Star Game in 2013. (#Humblebrag moment: I predicted that one)

Tonight's prediction: If it's a low-scoring, one- or two-run win for the AL, Mo wins the MVP.

— Jerry Beach (@JerryBeach73) July 16, 2013

Of the 60 position players to win the award, 41 were starters. And of the 19 reserves to earn the MVP, 12 did so after collecting the game-winning RBI, including Alex Bregman in 2018. (As a member of Generation X, I am contractually obligated to also note that Tim Raines set the standard for MVP-winning reserves by lacing the two-run triple in the 13th inning of the AL’s 2-0 win in 1987) If you are able to figure out which reserve will win the MVP by delivering the decisive hit tonight, we offer our advance congratulations and ask if you’ll be opening a 1-800 psychic line. 

The most-represented position among MVP winners is, not surprisingly, outfield (23). The least-represented is third base, where Bregman became the fourth winner (fifth, if you count Cal Ripken Jr. winning it when he was elected as the third baseman but officially started at shortstop in his final All-Star Game in 2001). No position has gone longer without a win than shortstop (Miguel Tejada in 2005).

As evidenced by the Bieber and Rivera victories, the #narrative can sometimes carry a player in the MVP balloting. Alas, the most obvious storybook candidates to win the award tonight — starting pitchers Shane McClanahan and Clayton Kershaw and retiring slugger Albert Pujols — aren’t listed at DraftKings.

McClanahan, the Tampa Bay Rays ace, could declare his arrival on the national stage with a dominant first inning. A scoreless first sparking the NL to a wire-to-wire victory would make Los Angeles Dodgers icon Kershaw — in the midst of a renaissance season at age 34 and starting the All-Star Game at his home park for what will surely be the only time — an enticing pick. And what if someone grooves a fastball to Pujols in his final at-bat, a la Chan Ho Park with Ripken in 2001 (when Pujols walked in the lone plate appearance in his first All-Star Game)?

FUN PROP BETS

Eager to bet on home runs after Monday’s Derby? BetMGM offers odds on the first player to hit a round-tripper, with Aaron Judge (+650), Ohtani (+800) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (+950) all under +1000. Mookie Betts and Paul Goldschmidt are at +1050 apiece while Rafael Devers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Giancarlo Stanton and Manny Machado are at +1100. Or are you feeling this will be the first homer-less All-Star Game since 2013? No homer at all is a +1400 wager.

And speaking of +1400 odds…if you’re under the age of 40, you’ve never seen a grand slam in an All-Star Game. Perhaps if you are over the age of 40, Fred Lynn’s blast off Atlee Hammaker in the 1983 All-Star Game was the topic of conversation the next morning on the bus to day camp. Anyway, Lynn’s grand slam remains the only one in All-Star Game history. Caesars is offering +1400 odds that someone hits the second one tonight.

Times flies….. https://t.co/Waoo1TdRMo

— Fred Lynn (@19fredlynn) July 7, 2022

THE PICKS

As tempting as it is to go with the National League and either Kershaw or Pujols winning the MVP, let’s go with the American League continuing its dominance in a low-scoring affair in which the total runs comes comfortably under the 7.5. 

No one will hit a grand slam, though Aaron Judge will follow Soto by scoring one for the #narrative and continuing his own contract march by hitting a homer and joining Rivera and Derek Jeter as Yankees to win the All-Star Game MVP.