With 22 days left in the regular season, baseball’s most compelling races are taking place in the National League East.
The first-place New York Mets and second-place Atlanta Braves are both on a 100-win pace and separated by just a half-game entering today’s games. The division winner gets the first-round bye and the ability to set up its pitching for a best-of-five Division Series while the second-place finisher has to navigate the much more treacherous path of needing to win a best-of-three wild card series just to advance to the Division Series against the behemoth that is the Los Angeles Dodgers.
There’s something else at stake for the Braves — or, to be more precise, outfielder Michael Harris II and pitcher Spencer Strider — as well: The National League Rookie of the Year.
Seiya Suzuki, MacKenzie Gore and Oneil Cruz all had brief stints as Rookie of the Year frontrunners, but there’s no longer any doubt the Braves will be the first team to have players finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year balloting since Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman did so for Atlanta in 2011.
Harris leads NL rookies in WAR per Baseball-Reference (4.5), is hitting .311 and has a chance at a 20/20 season — he has 18 homers and 16 steals entering tonight — despite not debuting until May 30. Strider, whose 3.7 WAR per Baseball-Reference leads all rookie pitchers, is 10-5 with a 2.72 ERA and 192 strikeouts in 125 2/3 innings, which gives him a chance to become only the fourth pitcher to strike out 200 batters while not qualifying for the ERA title (162 innings pitched).
The teammates are in a virtual tie at online sportsbooks today. DraftKings has Strider and Harris at -120 apiece, while FanDuel and BetMGM have Harris as the favorite and Caesars gives the nod to Strider.
This fascinating race will be determined by the thoughts of the electorate — 30 members of the Baseball Writers Association of America, two from each National League city — on an age-old question: Who is more valuable, the everyday player or the ace-caliber starting pitcher?
The identity of the voters will remain unknown until the results are announced in late November — and even if the voters could already be identified, it’d be ethically unsound to ask their thoughts, even in an anonymous setting.
So for a potential hint at how things might play out — and because it’s always fun to talk baseball-related topics — we polled two players and a uniformed staff member, all from non-Braves teams in the NL East, for their anonymous thoughts on the race.
The very unscientific findings: Harris has the slightest of edges by virtue of playing everyday and supplementing his offensive production with solid defense in centerfield.
“I like Harris, he’s done a good job, he really has,” the uniformed staff member said. “Everyday guy, he’s done well on both sides.”
#Braves Michael Harris II now batting .313 w/ 42 XBH (16 HR) & .900 OPS in 91 games while playing elite CF defense. Not sure what NL ROY odds are, but I’d bet on him. Hustle single-turned-double & oppo HR tonight to extend hitting streak to 15 games (.463/.517/.815 in streak).
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) September 10, 2022
Harris has made one error and is worth 0.8 in defensive WAR, per Baseball-Reference, as well as four defensive runs saved above average, per the formula designed by Baseball Info Solutions.
“The everyday guy can go 0-for-4 but still impact the game on defense,” said one player.
History is also on Harris’ side. Of the 23 rookies to finish a season with a Baseball-Reference WAR of 4.5 or higher in the wild card era (1995-present), 15 have won the Rookie of the Year. Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez, who has collected 5.4 WAR this season, is sure to join the club as the AL winner, with Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman (4.4 WAR) likely to become the fifth Rookie of the Year runner-up with a WAR of 4.5 or higher in the wild card era.
If Harris, the youngest player in the NL at age 21, can finish at 5.0 WAR, he’ll become just the 23rd player to post 5.0 WAR or better at age 21 or younger in the expansion era (1961-present). Among those in that select club: Hall of Famers Johnny Bench, Ken Griffey Jr. and Rickey Henderson, along with active locks Albert Pujols and Mike Trout as well as Alex Rodriguez.
Harris is also likely to benefit from the fact his club’s resurgence began almost immediately after he joined the club. Atlanta was 22-24 prior to Harris’ recall and lost three of its first four games with him on the roster but is 64-27 since June 1, which is tied with the Dodgers for the best record in baseball. The Braves overcame a 10 1/2-game deficit in the NL East and moved into first place for the first time this season Friday, though they’ve lost three straight since.
But our Strider voter said he’d support the pitcher because he opened the season with the Braves. Strider, who debuted late last season, made his first 11 appearances out of the bullpen before moving into the rotation May 30.
“My tiebreaker is going with the guy who has been there from the start,” the Strider voter said.
Of the 37 pitchers to finish their rookie season with at least 3.7 WAR since 1995, eight won the Rookie of the Year. Strider, who has a 2.84 ERA in 19 starts and 101 1/3 innings as a starter, is likely to become the first starting pitcher to finish with at least 4.0 in WAR as a rookie since the Baltimore Orioles’ John Means did so in 2019, when he had 4.5 WAR and finished second behind the Houston Astros’ Yordan Alvarez.
Spencer Strider’s 13.8 K/9 is currently tied with Gerrit Cole as the best single season K/9 rate in MLB history.
2019➖Gerrit Cole (13.8 K/9)
2022➖Spencer Strider (13.8)
2018➖Chris Sale (13.5)
2001➖Randy Johnson (13.4)
2019➖Chris Sale (13.3)
1999➖Pedro Martínez (13.2)— Kevin Keneely (@KevinKeneely1) September 13, 2022
The last NL starting pitcher to post at least 4.0 in WAR as a rookie was the late Jose Fernandez, who won Rookie of the Year honors after finishing with 6.2 WAR — the most by a rookie pitcher in the wild card era — for the Miami Marlins in 2013.
Strider authored perhaps this season’s signature moment by a rookie by striking out 16 without issuing a walk in a 3-0 win over the Colorado Rockies on Sept. 1. He is just the fourth rookie with a start in which he struck out 16 without walking a batter. Two of his predecessors, Dwight Gooden in 1984 and Kerry Wood in 1998, won the NL Rookie of the Year.
He’s also making history that goes well beyond his status as a first-year player. Strider’s ratio of 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings is tied for the best in history among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 inning with Gerrit Cole in 2019.
“We all know how a starting pitcher can impact things the day he pitches,” said the player who leaned towards giving Harris his hypothetical vote.
Of course, it seems appropriate that Harris also shined on Strider’s big night. His leadoff homer in the fifth provided the Braves’ second run, offering another reminder that no matter who wins the Rookie of the Year, the Braves are winning — for years and years to come. Harris has already signed an extension through 2030 while Strider won’t hit free agency until at least the winter of 2027.
“It’s a nice problem for the Braves to have,” one player said with a chuckle.
