2022 Home Run Derby Betting Preview, Prediction: Can Pete Alonso Three-Peat?

The New York Yankees from 1936 through 1939…the Yankees from 1949 through 1953…the Oakland Athletics from 1972 through 1974…the Yankees from 1998 through 2000.

Tonight, Pete Alonso tries joining the esteemed group of baseball dynasties by winning his third straight Home Run Derby.

OK, that’s a little hyperbolic. As neat as it would be if Alonso — the New York Mets first baseman who won the Derby as a rookie in 2019 before winning it again last season after the pandemic forced the cancellation of the 2020 All-Star Game and accompany festivities — becomes the first three-peat winner in Derby history, it’d be a feat much more on par with Larry Bird and Craig Hodges winning three straight 3-point shooting contests during the NBA’s All-Star Weekend in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s (didn’t come here today expecting a Craig Hodges reference, did you?).

But it’d be a big deal for Alonso — whose +200 odds at DraftKings as of this morning have him as the favorite over Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, who is at +330 — and the Derby, which has turned into the premier event of the long All-Star Game weekend.

While those of us who came of age in the ‘80s and earlier circled the All-Star Game as the can’t-miss event of the summer, it has long been usurped by the Home Run Derby as baseball’s main regular season attraction. 

I knew I was getting old when I spent most of the media availability prior to the 2013 All-Star Game at Citi Field asking players about the most vivid All-Star Game memories of their childhood and everyone — from Madison Bumgarner, Craig Kimbrel and Mike Trout, all of whom were 25 or younger, to 38-year-old closer Joe Nathan — mentioned the Home Run Derby.

And hey, even us oldies get it: Everyone digs the long ball, especially in the Home Run Derby format, which is the rare goofy made-for-TV spectacle that’s as good in reality as it is in theory (ESPN insisting the event will end in a two-hour window aside — if you’re DVRing it, add at least an hour to be safe).

The Derby also brings a little bit of competition that’s been missing from the All-Star Game, which was turning into a get-everyone-in-the-boxscore exhibition even before the advent of interleague play in 1997 took away the novelty of seeing the American League face the National League in the middle of the season.

Will anyone defeat baseball's Joey Chestnut in tonight's Home Run Derby? pic.twitter.com/q7ooFuMIVV

— The Bill Chuck Files (@BillyBall) July 18, 2022

No one takes this competition as seriously as Alonso, who is pure id at the plate. His favorite adjective for homers is “sick,” which is the lone good usage of said adjective since 2020. Mets scout Jon Updike, who signed Alonso, told The Athletic that Alonso “…wants to turn up Led Zeppelin really loud, take his shirt off and crush baseballs really hard.”

Alonso’s crushed a whopping 131 homers in the last two Derbies. He’s also shown an innate sense of the dramatic by winning five of the six rounds by a single homer, including the semifinals and finals last year, when he edged Juan Soto and Trey Mancini, respectively. 

Can he do it again this year and join Ken Griffey Jr. (1994, 1998-99) as the only three-time winner of the Derby and become his sport’s version of Bird or Hodges? Here’s the bracket, with each player’s odds at DraftKings as of this morning, a couple methods by which to try and sleuth out a winner…and our pick to raise the crossed bats later tonight.

No. 1 seed Kyle Schwarber (+330) vs. No. 8 seed Albert Pujols (+2200)

No. 4 seed Juan Soto (+600) vs. No. 5 seed Jose Ramirez (+1600)

No. 3 seed Corey Seager (+900) vs. No. 6 seed Julio Rodriguez (+900)

No. 2 seed Pete Alonso (+200) vs. No. 7 seed Ronald Acuna Jr. (+600)

NARRATIVES

Are you a sucker for a good story? Pujols, in his final season at 42 years old and the oldest Derby entrant ever, has a chance to add the one thing missing from his Hall of Fame resume by winning the Derby. This will be the fifth Derby for Pujols, who finished second way back in 2003.

Soto’s short- and long-term destination will be the talk of the All-Star Game after he turned down a 15-year, $440 million extension by the Washington Nationals, who are expected to place the 23-year-old superstar on the trade market. But winning the Derby could make Soto an even BIGGER story this week, and he hit the longest homer in Derby history last year — a 520-foot moonshot at Coors Field — before falling to Alonso. 

A Derby title would further cement Rodriguez’s arrival as a superstar. Rodriguez, who is on pace for a 30-30 season and is the overwhelming favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year, has sparked a long-awaited surge by the Seattle Mariners, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2001 but have won 14 straight to vault into the second wild card spot.

HOT OR NOT?

Hitting homers off grooved batting practice fastballs is a lot different, of course, than hitting homers in game action. But can a contestant’s recent track record in games portend success in the Home Run Derby?

Of the five active players to win the Derby — Alonso is joined by Robinson Cano (2011), Giancarlo Stanton (2016), Aaron Judge (2017) and Bryce Harper (2018) — everyone except Cano headed into the All-Star Break with multiple homers in July. And everyone but Alonso, who had two homers in 19 at-bats in July 2019 prior to the All-Star Game, had at least three homers, with Alonso hitting four last July and Stanton hitting five in July 2016.

Acuna— who has one homer and four RBIs this month — is the lone contestant with fewer than two homers in July. The scorching Seager leads the field with seven homers as well as 17 RBIs while Soto and Schwarber have six homers apiece. Ramirez and Rodriguez have three homers each while Alonso and Pujols have each hit two round-trippers. Those trends are enough to go with Seager, Soto and Schwarber — the latter of whom leads the NL with 29 homers — to win at least one round apiece.

HOME RUN DERBY PREDICTIONS

First round

Schwarber over Pujols
Soto over Ramirez
Seager over Rodriguez
Alonso over Acuna

Semifinals

Soto over Schwarber
Alonso over Seager

Finals

Alonso over Soto. Sure, he hasn’t gone deep a lot this month. Doesn’t matter. This is Alonso’s event until further notice. So crank side one of Led Zeppelin IV and take that, Pat Riley, because you didn’t trademark three-Pete in the late ‘80s.