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2022 College Basketball Betting Preview: Underachieving Michigan Will Look for Bounceback Against No. 10 Michigan State

Michigan State and Michigan will continue one of college basketball’s oldest and most heated rivalries in a Big Ten game in Ann Arbor on Saturday, when the No. 10 Spartans will enter as a small favorite. Michigan State has won 10 of the last 15 games in the season series, but the teams have split the series in each of the last two seasons, and the home team has won all four.

No. 10 Michigan State at Michigan

Saturday, 2:30 pm ET

TV: FOX

Record: Michigan State: 13-2, 4-0 Big Ten; Michigan: 7-6, 1-2 Big Ten   

Line: Not yet available

Injuries/unavailable: Michigan G Brandon Johns missed the Rutgers game for undisclosed reasons after losing his starting job in early December. 

Series history: Michigan leads the series, 108-86

Michigan State at a glance

The Spartans have steadily risen in the AP Top 25 since losing to No. 6 Kansas in their season opener and to No. 1 Baylor in the championship game of the Battle 4 Atlantis. The Spartans have won eight in a row since being spanked by Baylor 75-58 on Nov. 26, albeit against an appreciably easier schedule. Their best wins during the current streak are at home against Louisville and on the road against Minnesota. 

Athletic forward Gabe Brown, who leads the Spartans with a 14.5 scoring average, is a weapon on the wing, when he likes to spot up on the left side and shoot from three. Brown is 37 of 93 (39.8 percent) from distance. Freshman Max Christie, who was the Illinois high school player of the year in 2021, is averaging 10.4 points and had a career-high 21 the last time out, a 79-67 victory over Nebraska on Wednesday. 

The Spartans suffered from inadequate point guard play a year ago, and coach Tom Izzo attempted to address that by adding Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker, who was the Colonial Athletic Association defensive player of the year in 2021. Holdover A.J. Hoggard has split time with Walker at the point, and the position still is in a bit of flux, but the rest of the group is typically Izzo strong and physical. 

Christie and forward Marcus Bingham Jr. (10.5 points, 7.8 rebounds) missed the 81-68 victory over Tubby Smith and High Point on Dec. 29 because of Covid-19 issues, but the Spartans for the most part have avoided the distractions that Covid can cause.

Michigan at a glance

Michigan made it all the way to the Elite Eight a year ago and probably would have gone further if not for the untimely injury to guard Isaiah Livers in the first round of the Big 12 tournament.

That was then. The losses of team leader Livers, point guard Mike Smith and NBA lottery pick Franz Wagner have not been easy to overcome, despite the return of talented 7-foot-1 big man Hunter Dickinson.

Dickinson leads the Wolverines in scoring (16.1) and rebounds (8.0) and has four 20-point games, but something just is not right, and it is not just due to a testing preseason schedule that included loses to Seton Hall in the Gavitt Tipoff Games, Arizona in Las Vegas and North Carolina in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge in Chapel Hill.

The Wolverines are outside of the top 120 in Division I in both scoring offense (72.8 points) and scoring defense (66.8 points), and they have lost three of the last four, including bad road losses to Central Florida and Rutgers.

Super senior Eli Brooks is averaging 12.9 points a game and Coastal Carolina transfer DeVante Jones has stepped in for Jones at the point, but the offense has struggled with ball possession. The Wolverines have a minus-2.6 turnover margin, which is eighth-worst among Power 6 programs. 

 Facts to know

 — Michigan State has won 10 of the last 15 meetings and 30 of the last 44. 

 — The Wolverines have won seven of the last 10 in Ann Arbor.

 — Michigan State opponents are shooting 39.2 percent from the floor

 Numbers to know

 — Michigan State has a plus-8.2 rebound margin, tied with BYU for No. 19 in NCAA Division I. The Spartans have out-rebounded 12 opponents.

 — Michigan is 5-8 ATS. It has been favored in every game this season. 

 — The Spartans are 9-6 ATS, 8-4 as a favorite, 4-0 as a road favorite

 — Michigan State is 5-2 in Quad 1-2 games; Michigan is 1-6. 

 The pick: Michigan 70, Michigan State 67

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