Arrowhead Stadium is set to host the AFC Championship Game for the fourth time in as many years as the AFC once again goes through the Chiefs. The Patriots got the best of the Chiefs in 2018 and Kansas City came out on top in 2019 (Titans) and 2020 (Bills). Now, it’s the Bengals’ turn to see if they can quiet one of the loudest crowds in football.
While the Chiefs have a plethora of experience competing on big stages, the Bengals are newcomers to this space, having won just one road playoff game in team history (last week). Cincinnati is also in its first AFC Championship Game since 1988. The Bengals did beat the Chiefs, 34-31, in the regular season, but enters as a significant underdog.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
What: AFC Championship Game
Date: Sunday, Jan. 30, 2022
Time: 3 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Spread: Chiefs -7
Over/Under: 54.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -365; Bengals +280
Bengals At A Glance
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase won the 2019 College Football Playoff with LSU, but the bulk of this Cincinnati roster lacks experience competing for championships. So far, that hasn’t mattered much as the Bengals have come through with clutch plays to win playoff games against the Raiders and on the road against the top-seeded Titans. However, it’s fair to wonder if that playoff inexperience will show up in a big spot.
“I’m tired of the underdog narrative."
Joe Burrow has confidence in his team after advancing to the AFC title game
(via @Trags) pic.twitter.com/1EQ8C6BbHX
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 23, 2022
Burrow, who threw for 348 yards against the Titans, Chase (109 receiving yards against Tennessee) and Joe Mixon (1,205 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns this season) give the Bengals plenty of firepower on offense. Cincinnati averaged 27 points and 385 yards per game this season, but the offensive line has been a flaw all year and it was exposed last Saturday as the Titans sacked Burrow nine times. Yes, nine. The Bengals are going to need to score to beat the Chiefs and to do so they need to keep Burrow upright. Cincinnati survived against the Titans, but it’s hard to imagine them beating Kansas City with equally poor protection.
When the Chiefs have the ball, the Bengals need to be opportunistic. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 13 interceptions this season, the most of his career, though a lot of those came early in the season. If Mahomes, who has thrown just one pick over his past five games, gives the Bengals secondary a chance, they need to take advantage. The Bengals, who ranked in the middle of the league in red zone defense, will also need to find a way to limit the Chiefs offense to a couple of field goals, rather than giving up touchdowns. Of course, that’s much easier said than done.
Chiefs At A Glance
If this were the regular season, one could make the argument the Chiefs are primed for a letdown after a thrilling 42-36 overtime win against the Bills. However, the stakes of this game are probably enough to eliminate that narrative. Kansas City not only has home field advantage and experience on its side, it’s also loaded with talent. Mahomes got off to a slow start this season, but has been on a tear of late, throwing 25 touchdowns (compared to just four interceptions) over his past 10 games. The 26-year-old threw for 378 yards and a trio of touchdowns on Sunday while Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce combined for 246 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
The final two minutes + OT last night:
Patrick Mahomes: 10-for-13 for 188 yards and 2 TDs
Travis Kelce: 3 catches for 44 yards and a TD
Tyreek Hill: 4 catches for 97 yards and a TDLegends.
— Matt McMullen (@KCChiefs_Matt) January 24, 2022
The Chiefs will put up points, but can they keep Joe Burrow off the board? Tyrann Mathieu missed most of the win over the Bills and Buffalo’s passing attack took advantage. Things seem to be trending in the right direction for the Kansas City safety as he works his way through concussion protocol, but if he’s unable to play, the secondary will have to make adjustments. Josh Allen was able to carve up the Kansas City defense and Burrow is capable of doing the same. The Chiefs front seven will also have to find ways to get pressure and attack a Cincinnati offensive line that underwhelmed last week.
Prediction
The Chiefs are rolling right now and will continue to do so. The Bengals are fun to watch and seem like they’ll have an exciting run over the next few years, but their 2021 season will come to an end Sunday. A struggling offensive line will limit Cincinnati’s opportunities to score and the Bengals defense won’t be able to stifle the Kansas City offense. Patrick Mahomes — as he’s done so often in his young career — will thrive in the big moment and the Chiefs, bolstered by their raucous home crowd, will clinch another Super Bowl berth.
NFL Betting Pick: Chiefs 31, Bengals 20
