The NFL regular season is winding down, which means there are limited opportunities remaining to wager on the non-playoff teams. There are some interesting spreads and totals this week, and I wasn’t shy about making predictions on those. There are also plenty of intriguing prop bets.
Below is a prediction for each game on the weekend slate. As has been the case of late, keep up to date on the latest COVID-related news because it can significantly affect the betting. Odds courtesy of DraftKings on Dec. 31.
Rams (-4.5) at Ravens
The pick: Rams WR Cooper Kupp (-115) over 107.5 receiving yards
The reason: Kupp has been the picture of consistency this year, with 90 or more receiving yards in all but one game. He has 109 or more receiving yards in each of the past four and has been targeted nine or more times in every contest this year. The Ravens have a dire cornerback situation, and Kupp is closing in on some impressive season-long milestones, which may be in the back of heads on the Los Angeles sideline. Kupp is the Offensive Player of the Year co-favorite for a reason and should continue his stellar season by surpassing this yardage total.
Chiefs (-4.5) at Bengals
The pick: Chiefs (-115) to cover as three-point first-half favorites
The reason: Kansas City is playing really well right now and should be able to jump out in front of the Bengals. There is a chance Cincy stays within a field goal at intermission, which would make this a push, but the Chiefs also have the firepower to get further ahead. A decent amount of games end with margins of four points or fewer, and choosing the halftime spread would take the backdoor cover out of the equation.
Buccaneers (-13.5) at Jets
The pick: Buccaneers (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: Tampa Bay will be without coach Bruce Arians due to COVID, but his staff is well aware of the way he wants this team to play. The Buccaneers throw the ball a ton and do not let off the gas until very late when blowing teams out. Look for Tom Brady to have a field day, even if Mike Evans and Antonio Brown are both out. Tampa Bay is the much better team and should run away with this one for the easy cover.
Lengthy Friday injury report for the Bucs… Of note:
– Shaq Barrett & JPP ruled OUT
– Mike Evans off COVID list but limited in his return today
– AB didn't participate for 2nd-straight dayHarold Goodwin said there's still a chance Evans and AB could go on Sunday | @WFLA pic.twitter.com/rc2oXh6MND
— Karen Loftus (@WFLAKaren) December 31, 2021
Raiders (+7) at Colts
The pick: Raiders (-105) to cover the spread
The reason: The Colts are definitely the better team and are playing well right now, but the Raiders are good enough to keep the margin closer than a touchdown. Derek Carr is a better quarterback than Carson Wentz, and the latter may miss this game anyway as he is in COVID-19 protocols. If Sam Ehlinger is confirmed to be the starter, expect this line to drop. Even if Wentz starts, the Raiders are the better pick.
Jaguars (+16) at Patriots
The pick: Jaguars (-105) under 12.5 points
The reason: It’s hard to keep teams under two touchdowns in the NFL, but this is the perfect storm. The Patriots have one of the best defenses in the NFL and the Jaguars are putrid on offense. Additionally, the Jaguars have been hit hard by COVID-19 with more than two dozen players being placed on the list. New England should get ahead easily in this game and then run the ball a lot. That lowers the chance of turnovers and shortens the game, which makes the under the right play on Jacksonville’s point total.
Falcons (+14) at Bills
The pick: Falcons (-105) over 14.5 points
The reason: Another extremely low point total, but this is one Atlanta should be able to surpass. It’s going to be cold in Buffalo on Sunday, but the weather beyond that is not forecasted to be too challenging. The Bills have a great defense, but a veteran quarterback like Matt Ryan should be able to move the ball well enough to get 15 points. One crucial thing in Atlanta’s favor – since it could be trailing by a lot in the second half, a two-point conversion attempt is possible, and a successful one could allow the over to hit on just two scores instead of three.
Dolphins (+3.5) at Titans
The pick: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (-115) under 244.5 passing yards
The reason: Tagovailoa has been efficient of late but he does not usually have a big passing game volume. Miami is talented enough to keep this game reasonably close, which would keep Tagovailoa from airing it out. The Titans’ pass defense is solid enough that the under seems like the heady play. Tagovailoa has only passed for more than 244 yards once in his past seven games.
Eagles (-4.5) at Washington
The pick: Eagles WR Quez Watkins over 28.5 receiving yards
The reason: Washington is among the worst teams in the NFL at guarding No. 2 receivers, per Football Outsiders, which should give Watkins the opportunity to make some plays in this game. He is averaging 36.5 receiving yards per contest, and while DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are the main options for quarterback Jalen Hurts, Watkins should also be involved and surpass this total.
Giants (+5) at Bears
The pick: Bears (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: Chicago has the much more talented roster at this point, as the defense should be able to feast against a New York team that is struggling badly without quarterback Daniel Jones. The Bears were able to upset the Seahawks in Seattle last week and should secure another win, though it seems too little, too late to save coach Matt Nagy’s job.
Giants ruled out WRs Kadarius Toney (shoulder), John Ross (knee/COVID-19 ramp up) and Collin Johnson (hamstring). WR Darius Slayton placed on the Reserve/COVID-19. WRs Sterling Shepard, C.J. Board and Dante Pettis on IR. Kenny Golladay the only healthy WR on Giants’ active roster
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 31, 2021
Texans (+12) at 49ers
The pick: Scoring total (-110) over 44 points
The reason: Trey Lance might not be the same caliber passer of Jimmy Garoppolo at this point in his career, but the San Francisco run game should be elite in this one. Houston is already among the worst teams in the league at defending the running game and the 49ers will grab some serious chunks there and then hit on play-action down the field. Davis Mills has played well of late for Houston and should be able to get the Texans enough points as well for the over to hit.
Broncos (+7) at Chargers
The pick: Chargers (-110) to cover
The reason: The Broncos have been hammered by COVID cases, as their wide receiver corps will be a bunch of backups and Bradley Chubb will be sidelined. The Chargers are already seething at their loss last week to Houston and will have the opportunity to run away with this win. These teams are pretty even on talent when at full strength but the Broncos are decidedly less than that.
Cardinals (+6.5) at Cowboys
The pick: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (-115) over 61.5 receiving yards
The reason: Lamb has been impressive in his second season, averaging 71.9 receiving yards per game. The Cardinals have been very good against No. 1 receivers this season, but have lost outside cornerbacks Robert Alford and Marco Wilson to injuries in recent weeks. Arizona can’t bracket Lamb because Dallas has plenty of other playmakers on offense, which means a big day could be on the horizon.
Lions (+7.5) at Seahawks
The pick: Seahawks (-110) to cover
The reason: Seattle is wrapping up a disappointing season and just lost at home to the Bears. However, the Lions have a vastly inferior roster and could be missing starting quarterback Jared Goff, who is dealing with a knee injury. The spread is inviting action on the Lions, but don’t bite. The Seahawks should win by double digits.
Panthers (+6.5) at Saints
The pick: Panthers QB Sam Darnold (-115) over 200.5 passing yards
The reason: Carolina is going back to Darnold under center after Cam Newton went 0-5 as a starter after being signed. There is the possibility of a platoon like last week, but Darnold is under contract next season while Newton is not, and coach Matt Rhule wants to keep evaluating Darnold. It would take a disastrous showing for Darnold to be substituted out, in which case the over wouldn’t hit anyway. The belief here is that Carolina loses, but Darnold plays the whole game and throws enough in the fourth quarter to surpass this yardage total.
Vikings (+13.5) at Packers
The pick: Minnesota (-110) to cover
The reason: The Vikings will be without starting quarterback Kirk Cousins after he got COVID, and it’s a significant loss, but the line jumped too much. Minnesota’s overall roster depth is still pretty good, and if backup quarterback Sean Mannion can play passably, the Vikings should be able to hang around in this one and cover the spread.
This would definitely apply for Kirk Cousins who falls in that above average bucket
A 7 point downgrade feels like…a lot https://t.co/aA9zE30EJR
— Robby (@greerreNFL) December 31, 2021
Browns (-3.5) at Steelers
The pick: Steelers (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: Both of these teams have been disappointing this season. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is a shell of his former self, and that ineptitude has torpedoed the season. Baker Mayfield is in his physical prime but has been erratic in 2021. It’s hard to know what either of these teams is going to do on a weekly basis, so the choice is to take the home team and the points, especially knowing a field goal margin results in a cover.
