Christmastime is here, and what better gift to ourselves than some winning bets? I’ll do my best to help out with my favorite wager for each game below.
Keep up to date on all the COVID cases, because like last week, things are shifting quickly. Odds courtesy of DraftKings on Dec. 24. Happy holidays, everybody.
Browns (+7) at Packers
The pick: Browns running back Nick Chubb (-115) over 84.5 rushing yards
The reason: Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield may play in this one, but it could be without any practice time. Backup running back Kareem Hunt is likely out, which means Chubb could be relied on heavily. He is in a bit of a slump lately and only averaged 3.96 yards per carry last week against Las Vegas, but still accumulated 91 yards on 23 carries. The over is doable here.
Colts (+1) at Cardinals
The pick: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (-110) over 26.5 rushing yards
The reason: The Cardinals haven’t used designed runs as much this year compared to the past two, but could be getting back to that against the Colts. Their best receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, won’t play, while star center Rodney Hudson and explosive rookie receiver Rondale Moore could also be sidelined. If Murray calls his own number a few times, the over should hit.
Rams (-3.5) at Vikings
The pick: Rams (-105) to cover the spread
The reason: This is a tricky line because Minnesota would cover if it lost by a field goal, but I still like Los Angeles. Matthew Stafford has shaken off a rough middle portion of the season and the offense is finding a groove. Von Miller is starting to have an impact up front alongside Aaron Donald. When their superstars are healthy and playing well, the Rams are hard to beat. They should cover.
.@CooperKupp is 🔥
He needs to average 113.3 yds and 9.3 recs per game to challenge @calvinjohnsonjr’s single-season yardage record (1,964 in 2012) & Michael Thomas’ single season reception record (149 in 2019).
📺: #LARvsMIN — SUNDAY 1 p.m. ET on FOX pic.twitter.com/GDUYPIjg3l
— Troy Vincent, Sr. (@TroyVincentSr) December 24, 2021
Buccaneers (-9.5) at Panthers
The pick: Bucs WR Antonio Brown (+120) anytime scorer
The reason: Tampa Bay will be without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans against Carolina, but Brown is now back in the fold following his suspension. The Bucs are projected to score 26.5 points in this one, which means ample opportunity for him to find the end zone. Tampa Bay has been throwing the ball all around the yard this year, and quarterback Tom Brady will likely be looking for his best wide receiver in the red zone.
Chargers (-10) at Texans
The pick: Chargers (-120) under 28.5 points
The reason: Los Angeles is the vastly superior team in this game and quarterback Justin Herbert should have no problem putting up solid numbers. But this game could get out of hand quickly and the Chargers will take their foot off the accelerator. Los Angeles’ defense allows rushing yards, so the Texans should be able to shorten the game and avoid too many costly turnovers by running the ball, thereby keeping the Chargers’ score down.
Bills (+2) at Patriots
The pick: Scoring total (-110) under 43.5
The reason: The Bills are going to be without wide receivers Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis this weekend against an already-stout New England pass defense. Stefon Diggs figures to get plenty of attention, and Buffalo will need to grind out first downs even though the coaches love to throw. The Patriots are happy playing in a low-scoring affair, and this one should end up as a slugfest.
Gabriel Davis joins Cole Beasley on the COVID-19 list. Cody Ford also on it.
Buffalo is so fortunate to have Emmanuel Sanders back for Sunday. This isn't what the Bills wanted on New England week.
— Mat Mlodzinski (@MatMlodzinski) December 24, 2021
Giants (+10) at Eagles
The pick: Eagles (-120) over 25.5 points
The reason: Philadelphia is up to No. 7 in offensive efficiency this season and the offensive line is playing really well. The Giants really struggle against the run and could be tossed around in this one. New York’s offense is also not expected to do much without quarterback Daniel Jones, which should give the Eagles good field position on a regular basis.
Ravens (+3.5) at Bengals
The pick: Baltimore (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley did a really nice job against the Packers and is likely to start in this game as well. The Ravens’ offense doesn’t have to change much because he is a dual threat in the mold of Lamar Jackson. Baltimore could be missing numerous pieces, but Huntley’s schematic fit and John Harbaugh’s coaching should keep this close.
Lions (+6.5) at Falcons
The pick: Atlanta (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: The Lions are a bad team in the first place, and are not expected to have quarterback Jared Goff in Atlanta. The team’s best receiving threat, tight end T.J. Hockenson, is already out for the season, and rising cornerback Amani Oruwariye is also out for this game. The Falcons aren’t very good, but they are much healthier and should cover.
Jaguars (+1.5) at Jets
The pick: Scoring total (-110) under 41.5
The reason: This is going to be a depressing game, and the best solution is to make some money when both teams fruitlessly spin their wheels on offense. The Jets have been slammed by COVID issues while the Jaguars are just a mess. It’s hard to envision anything other than a low-scoring slog.
Bears (+6.5) at Seahawks
The pick: Bears (-115) to cover the spread
The reason: Seattle has no more shot at the playoffs, which means any sense of urgency will be gone in this one. The Seahawks’ pass defense is a weakness, and even though it is Nick Foles under center, the Bears should be able to come up with enough explosive plays to keep this one close.
Not gonna lie I forgot Nick Foles even played for the Bears https://t.co/J1s64hZ7E5
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) December 24, 2021
Broncos (-1) at Raiders
The pick: Broncos (-110) on the moneyline
The reason: Denver is expected to start Drew Lock at quarterback, which is a scary proposition. However, the running game, led by Javonte Williams, is in a nice groove, and the defense is solid. The Broncos are the pick in this toss-up game.
Steelers (+8.5) at Chiefs
The pick: Kansas City (-110) to cover
The reason: The Steelers are 7-6-1 on the season but have gotten there by winning many close games. Impostors generally get smoked by true contenders, and that will be the case in this one. Look for Kansas City to roll and cover easily, although this will be a tougher call if either Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce can’t get off the COVID list in time for the game.
Washington (+10) at Cowboys
The pick: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (-115) under 277.5 passing yards
The reason: Prescott has been in a funk over his past five games, averaging only 6.1 yards per pass attempt over that period. The weapons are there but the aerial attack is not clicking, and this is a high yardage total. Washington’s pass defense has questions, but even if Prescott rebounds and plays well, he may not see enough volume to reach this yardage total.
Dolphins (-1.5) at Saints
The pick: Scoring total (-115) over 37.5 points
The reason: The Saints will be going with Ian Book as their starting quarterback in this one, the fourth-string choice for those keeping track at home. Unsurprisingly, the total has taken a dive, but it’s an over-correction. Both defenses could really feast in this one, and there is a high chance for turnovers, short fields and cheap points. The over is the play, and it won’t take much to get there.
