It’s been a chaotic practice week in the NFL, as COVID-19 has ravaged several rosters across the league. The Browns, Rams and Washington are all dealing with a bevy of positive cases, which has moved their games around on the schedule.
With so much uncertainty, predictions for those games are being left off this week. Even for the contests going forward as planned, keep an eye on the news before making your bets, because shifts can come quickly.
Below is a prediction for the other 12 games on the weekend slate. Odds courtesy of DraftKings on Dec. 17.
Patriots (+2.5) at Colts
The pick: Colts (-110) under 23.5 points
The reason: The Patriots have the No. 2 defense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders, excellent against the run and the pass. This could be a ball control game, with each side content to lean on their excellent rushing attacks. The winning side of this bet will likely be dependent on how well the Colts do on fourth downs. The belief here is that New England comes up with enough stops for the under to hit.
Cardinals (-12.5) at Lions
The pick: Cardinals WR Christian Kirk (+130) anytime touchdown
The reason: The Cardinals are without DeAndre Hopkins, which means Kirk should see full-time snaps moving forward. The Lions are in really bad shape at the cornerback position, with Amani Oruwariye the only key player available because of COVID and injuries. He is 6-foot-2 and more likely to match up with A.J. Green in the red zone, leaving Kirk to feast on an untested cornerback. It is important for Arizona’s Super Bowl hopes that Kirk steps up down the stretch, and he should do so in this matchup.
Christian Kirk said he’d be lying if the sense of urgency doesn’t increase without DeAndre Hopkins. “You have to fill that void and guys have to step up.”
— Chierstin Susel (@ChierstinSusel) December 17, 2021
Cowboys (-11) at Giants
The pick: Giants to cover the spread
The reason: Home field doesn’t mean much any longer, and the Giants won’t have starting quarterback Daniel Jones, but this line is still too high. New York should be able to hold up enough against the pass to keep from getting blown out, allowing for the cover.
Panthers (+12) at Bills
The pick: Bills (+110) over 3.5 touchdowns
The reason: Buffalo is the best 7-6 team we’ve seen in a long time and should be able to handle the Panthers with ease. The Carolina defense is solid, but the offense is a mess. That means some short fields should be upcoming for Buffalo, with a decent chance that the Bills secure a defensive touchdown in this one. This underdog pick is worth it.
Jets (+9.5) at Dolphins
The pick: Dolphins (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: Miami has won five straight games and can reach .500 on the season with a victory. The Dolphins are trying to make an unlikely push for the playoffs and should have no trouble dispatching the woeful Jets. Miami’s defense should be able to terrorize Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, who has been awful this year.
Losing at the last second to Urban Meyer’s Jaguars might cost the Dolphins the playoffs and honestly they deserve it if it does for losing to them.
— Ethan Budowsky (@ethanbudowsky) December 16, 2021
Titans (+1) at Steelers
The pick: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (-115) under 260.5 passing yards
The reason: The oddsmakers believe this game could be close, which would keep Roethlisberger from needing to throw a bunch of passes late in the contest. His attempts total is set at 35.5, and Big Ben would need to average 7.3 yards per pass at that rate to surpass the yardage total. He is only averaging 6.7 yards per attempt on the year, which makes the under the easy call.
Texans (+5) at Jaguars
The pick: Houston (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: This is nice value for the Texans. Yes, the Jaguars got rid of coach Urban Meyer this week, which should be a breath of fresh air, but it’s hard to know how that will translate onto the field. Even if the Jaguars win, the Texans would cover in a close game, and both of these squads are devoid of talent.
Falcons (+9) at 49ers
The pick: 49ers (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: Every time Atlanta has played an upper-tier opponent this season, it has lost in lopsided fashion. While the 49ers aren’t on the level of the Buccaneers, Patriots and Cowboys, they are still a quality team that has found a groove. As long as San Francisco takes care of the ball, it should pull away and win this one comfortably.
Bengals (+3) at Broncos
The pick: Bengals (-145) to cover as 1-point first-quarter underdogs
The reason: These teams aren’t separated by much from a skill perspective, and there is a decent chance the first quarter ends in a tie. Cincinnati is understandably a heavy favorite to win this bet, but it’s a worthy play. Denver tends to have long possessions, which increases the odds that it doesn’t jump ahead before the first quarter ends.
Both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon are a full-go for Sunday’s game vs. the Bengals https://t.co/cffI9cRyIR
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) December 17, 2021
Packers (-7) at Ravens
The pick: Packers WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling (-115) over 40.5 receiving yards
The reason: The Ravens are now without their best two cornerbacks, as Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey are both done for the year. Baltimore will likely bracket Davante Adams often to keep him from dominating this matchup. That should open the door for Valdes-Scantling to get plenty of targets, provided he plays after being listed as questionable with a back injury. He has seen 24 targets over his past three games, which is a noticeable uptick from early in the year.
Saints (+11.5) at Buccaneers
The pick: Saints QB Tayson Hill (-115) over 42.5 rushing yards
The reason: The Bucs are great against the traditional running game, but in order to keep this game close, New Orleans has to keep the ball on the ground. That could mean plenty of option plays for Hill to keep Tampa Bay off-balance. Hill will also be able to add yards on scrambles off pass plays. He has rushed for 101 and 73 yards the past two weeks, and should reach 43 against the Bucs.
Vikings (-6) at Bears
The pick: Bears (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: This line has moved up in recent days but there is reason to believe that Chicago can keep this one close. Quarterback Justin Fields has progressed as the season has gone on, and has shown the ability to extend drives with his arm and his legs. Minnesota should win but it won’t be by a comfortable margin.
