Premier League Top Four Odds

With six to seven teams regularly in with a shout of a top-four Premier League place, the fight for Champions League qualification has never been so competitive. We’ve gathered the latest odds and a detailed odds history, showing how bookies have rated each top ten team’s chances of qualifying for European football’s top table.

We also track the following betting markets – take a look to see current odds and trends over time:

• Ballon d’Or Odds
• Premier League Winner Odds 2022/23
• Premier League Relegation Odds 2022/23
• Premier League Golden Boot Odds 2022/23
• 2022 World Cup Winner Odds

2022/2023 Premier League Top Four Race – Latest Developments on Odds & Favourites:

• 16th May 2023 – Liverpool just keep on winning and are now just a point behind both Newcastle and Man United, but have played one more game. It looks as if they timed their charge to fourth just a touch too late and will have to settle for fifth, but the race is far from over.
• 9th May 2023 – with Liverpool six wins on the bounce and United spluttering towards the end of the season, the top four race is looking mighty close all of a sudden. Brighton’s drubbing at the hands of Everton means it’s very unlikely that their fantastic season ends with them in the top four.
• 2nd May 2023 – With City and Arsenal already qualified for the Champions League, the bookies have made United and Newcastle massive favourites to join them with four games to go. Liverpool are a long way out but still in with a shot, while Brighton, Spurs and Villa are now really in the race for Europa League.

We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.

Premier League Top Four Favourites 2023/24 Season

Manchester City

It’s hard to consider the 2022/23 treble winning squad finishing anywhere but inside the top four again this season. Favourites to win the Champions League and out and out front runners to win the Premier League for a third straight year, Pep’s team started the season with a bang, winning all of their first five matches.  

Arsenal

Finishing second in the 2022/23 season, Arsenal have set the benchmark high for their latest campaign with four wins and a draw in their fist five games. Arteta’s squad started the season with a confidence boosting Community Shield win over Manchester City, and the addition of Declan Rice to their mid-field armoury following a club record £105m transfer. 

Liverpool

With some impressive initial results against tough opposition at the start of the 2023/24 season, Liverpool have won four matches and drawn just one of their first five. There has been quite a few pre-season exits from the squad plus the welcome addition of ex-Brighton midfielder Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai from Leipzig, and Bayern’s Ryan Gravenberch. Klopp’s goal this season must be to regain Champions League status so we will watch in anticipation. 

Tottenham

Despite the arrival of a new manager, Ange Postecoglou, and the late departure of club favourite, Harry Kane to Bayern Munich, Tottenham have set off to a flying start this season. Winning four out of their first five games, and drawing the fifth, only time will tell if this improved performance will sustain momentum. New signings include James Maddison who has hit the ground running, starting in all five of the first games and scoring two goals.