The Ballon d'Or is the most prestigious individual award a footballer can win. Check out historical trend data to track the odds of the current favourites as well read up on history of the award.
The Ballon d’Or is the premier individual prize in football and you can expect to find the usual suspects in the running for the award, as well as some new faces. Our Ballon d’Or odds page offers the latest odds and a look at the current favourites, showing how each participant’s chances have been rated by the bookies.
We monitor trends in odds on key markets of interest by tracking a range of UK and international bookmakers. The update frequency varies, but is clearly shown on all our tables and charts. After fetching odds direct from bookies, we convert them to implied probability to make them easier to manage (read more on implied probability and converting from fractional to % probability). We then take the mean average implied probability to get a consensus view across the betting industry. This average implied probability is what we show on our charts and tables.
In the days leading up to the 2024 Ballon d’Or ceremony, it looked like Vinicius Jr. was certain to win it. However, in dramatic fashion, it emerged on the day of the awards ceremony that Manchester City midfielder Rodri would be declared the winner. This led to a total boycott of the awards ceremony from Real Madrid, who felt Vinicius Jr. had been hard done by. Rodri earned the award due to his performances at Manchester City, where his team won the Premier League, and also for his summer performances at Euro 2024, where he was crucial to Spain’s victory. Rodri has been ruled out of contention for the 2025 Ballon d’Or, with the Spanish midfielder picking up an injury that will leave him out of action for a long time.
Ballon d’or 2025: Who Could Win it?
With the current holder Rodri out of the race, here are some players who could easily come away with the award in 2025.
Vinicius Jr
The strong favourite for last year’s award will be right back in the mix again this year. Real Madrid had a tough start to the season but have started to find their feet both in the La Liga and Champions League. The Brazilian has been fantastic once again this season and has not let the signing of Kylian Mbappe diminish his importance to Real Madrid. If Vinicius can continue this good form for the remainder of the year as well as pick up some trophies with Madrid, he will be a strong contender for 2025’s Ballon d’Or.
Mohammed Salah
Many felt Jurgen Klopp’s decision to resign as Liverpool manager would leave them struggling. However, Arne Slot’s transition has been as smooth as possible and Liverpool look to be both Premier League and Champions League favourites. Salah has been key to this Liverpool side and their current performances. He is the top scorer in the Premier League and has came up with some key goals in the Champions League as well. If Liverpool can continue this form, expect Mohammed Salah to be one of the clear favourites for the Ballon d’Or.
Kylian Mbappe
Often regarded as the best player in the world, Kylian Mbappe’s start to life at Real Madrid has been pretty inconsistent. He hasn’t seemed to gel well with teammate Vinicius Jr and the Brazilian winger has often looked like the better player in this Madrid side. However, this is likely just a form issue that Mbappe will quickly fix. At his best the Frenchman is unplayable and with Real Madrid improving recently you can expect Mbappe to find his form pretty quickly. Like Vinicius, if Madrid can go on to win trophies this season it will be hard to look past Mbappe as a potential Ballon d’Or winner.
Ballon d'Or in a Nutshell
Everything You Need to Know About the Ballon d’Or
Let’s take a look at what the Ballon d’Or is, how it’s decided and who has won it in the past.
Ballon d’Or History
The Ballon d’Or is an annual award presented by France Football to the best performing footballer over the past calendar year. The award is generally considered the highest individual honour a football player can receive. The first Ballon d’Or was awarded in 1956 to Stanley Matthews.
From 2010 to 2015 the Ballon d’Or was merged with the FIFA World Player of the Year Award, though it is now once again independently awarded by France Football. Since 2018 an award has also been presented to the best female player, the Ballon d’Or Feminin.
Ballon d’Or Voting
The Ballon d’Or winner is chosen from 30 nominees by a panel of journalists. The 30-man shortlist is chosen by the editorial staff of France Football, and then an international jury of journalists from a number of different nations vote for the winner. Each country has one representative journalist. A full ranking of all nominees is given during the ceremony before the winner is announced.
Each journalist selects their top five best players, with six points going to the first selection, four to the second, three to the third, two to the fourth and one to the player listed in fifth. The voting is based on set criteria, which are considered in the following order:
Individual and collective performances from the past year
Player class, which France Football defines as “talent and fair play”
The player’s overall career
Ballon d’Or Winners
For the majority of its history, the Ballon d’Or has produced a wide variety of winners, with a new player taking the prize most years. However, from 2008-2017 the award was shared exclusively between Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. Lionel Messi holds the record of 8 Ballon d’Or’s while his rival Ronaldo holds an impressive 5.
Lionel Messi was named 2019 FIFA Player of the Year, beating Virgil van Dijk and Cristiano Ronaldo. The former Barcelona forward won a record sixth Ballon d Or title.
Diarmuid is a contributor at Compre.bet. He is a seasoned betting expert with experience in creating engaging and informative content. He combines his deep knowledge of the sport with a strong understanding of betting markets to deliver high-quality and informative content. With a background in crafting content for the gambling industry, Diarmuid is dedicated to helping readers make informed betting decisions while enjoying a better overall experience.